NEWMARKET HANDICAP - 1200M [Group 1] 12 Mar 05 - Flemington
 

1 ALINGHI Lee Freedman
2 DANBIRD Danny O'Brien
3 DON'T TELL TOM John Collins
4 FASTNET ROCK Paul Perry
5 FOREPLAY Mathew Ellerton
6 GENERAL BAYTON Donna Gaskin
7 GOLD WELLS Danny O'Brien
8 KEENINSKY (NZ) Graeme Rogerson
9 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT Tony Vasil
10 OUR QUIVIRA (NZ) Peter G Moody
11 SPECIAL HARMONY Lee Freedman
12 STAR OF GRETCHEN (NZ) Peter G Moody

I'm guessing $2.00 Alinghi, $2.50 Fastnet Rock, nothing else in single figures. Foreplay and Not A Single Doubt around the $10-$12 mark.

6- SEPPELT WINES NEWMARKET HANDICAP 1200 M
Of $1002500 Of $1000000 and $2500 trophy. First $650000 and trophy of $2500, second $200000, third $90000, fourth $40000, fifth $20000. Starter Subsidy: $325 for non-prize earning runners. (GROUP 1). No allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 24
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No Horse Trainer Ballot Wgt Pen Rating
1 FASTNET ROCK Paul Perry 1 57
2 SPECIAL HARMONY Lee Freedman 3 54
3 ALINGHI Lee Freedman 2 53.5
4 KEENINSKY (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 4 52
5 GOLD WELLS Danny O'Brien 5 51.5
6 OUR QUIVIRA (NZ) Peter G Moody 6 51
7 FOREPLAY Mathew Ellerton 7 51
8 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT Tony Vasil 8 51
9 GENERAL BAYTON Donna Gaskin 9 51
10 DON'T TELL TOM John Collins 10 51
11 DANBIRD Danny O'Brien



The Rock gets 57. Thats got to be an early plus for him.
What are everyones thoughts?

thats a massive weight for him. Alinghi gets in real light as well. she should be too good and the weight pull for nasd makes the $10 or so for him look enticing

Cheers Tenacious Spirit. Obviously DANBIRD 51kg as well.

Umrum, agreed. NASD has the blinkers on first time. This could also help.

Danbird's jock will have to waste to ride at the 0.00 kgs he appears to be weighted at. Danny will be pleased with the allotted weight I would think. Might back it.

Keeninsky - easy!!

yeeeeeeeeeeeey Paddy's back!

Final Field
 

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight

1 FASTNET ROCK Paul Perry G Boss 7 57
2 SPECIAL HARMONY Lee Freedman Steven King 6 54
3 ALINGHI Lee Freedman D Oliver 3 53.5
4 KEENINSKY (NZ) Graeme Rogerson D Gauci 2 52
5 DANBIRD Danny O'Brien 10 51
6 DON'T TELL TOM John Collins S Seamer 9 51
7 FOREPLAY Mathew Ellerton N Ryan (a) 5 51
8 GENERAL BAYTON Donna Gaskin B Fenech 1 51
9 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT Tony Vasil S Baster 8 51
10 OUR QUIVIRA (NZ) Peter G Moody B Shinn (a) 4 51

Current fixed odds market
 

No. Selection Win

003 Alinghi $1.85
001 Fastnet Rock $2.60
009 Not a Single Doubt $11.00
007 Foreplay $13.00
002 Special Harmony $26.00
006 Don't Tell Tom $26.00
004 Keeninsky $34.00
008 General Bayton $41.00
010 Our Quivira $51.00
005 Danbird $101.00

Wow I thought Alinghi might have been a little better than that. Was that the opening odds?

Not a Single Doubt
Foreplay
Fastnet Rock
Alinghi

(3) Alinghi
(1) Fastnet Rock
(9) Not a Single Doubt
(8) General Bayton

I know you will all think I'm crazy(and your right!)but I am backing Special Harmony e/w in this.I know it looks a match race between Alinghi and the Rock,but good quality staying types can often sprint well fresh,and I just can't resist the odds!Also concerned about Damien,he seems to have lost his confidence,or something.

9 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT
1 FASTNET ROCK
4 KEENINSKY
7 FOREPLAY

Hey Purpleheart I don't think you're crazy I'll be taking those odds if I can get them too.

Special Harmoney has won 2 of 4 first-up starts, has won 2 from 4 over the distance and has a 40%-win 100%-place strike rate at Flemington over 5 starts. These figures tell a great story at odds of $25/1.

My Ratings
 

Alinghi $2.67
Fastnet Rock $6.67
Not A Single Doubt $6.67
Foreplay $6.67
Special Harmony $26.67
General Bayton $26.67

I won't get my price about Alinghi, so this will be for interest only as far as I'm concerned.

For what it's worth Alinghi's projected rating is 73, which I first thought would make here a genuine odds-on chance in this race. Fastnet's projected rating is 75, but the other 2 3yo's Not a Single Doubt and Foreplay both now have projected ratings of 70 because of their continued improvement. Considering they get 2.5 kg of Alinghi and 6 kg of Fastnet Rock, they are in this up to their ears.

I agree that Oliver has been very disappointing this Autumn. He's had the right horses, drawn good barriers, but isn't producing the goods.

No Runner Jockey Win Place
3 Alinghi DAMIEN OLIVER 1.90 0.00
1 Fastnet Rock G.BOSS 2.60 0.00
9 Not A Single Doubt S.BASTER 9.00 0.00
7 Foreplay N.RYAN(A) 11.00 0.00
6 Don't Tell Tom S.SEAMER 21.00 0.00
2 Special Harmony S.KING 34.00 0.00
4 Keeninsky D.GAUCI 34.00 0.00
8 General Bayton B.FENECH 41.00 0.00
10 Our Quivira B.SHINN(A) 51.00 0.00
5 Danbird M.PEGUS 101.00 0.00

Special Harmony fans will be happy with 33/1.

Colin Tidy has Alinghi at $2.00 and Fastnet at $3.00 currently. Those 2 may be easing.

Lovely weight drop for NOT A SINGLE DOUBT. A lot to like about his last few runs.

ALINGHI loves this distance and track, great win in the Sangster.

FASTNET ROCK back from spell with a vengeance has been getting to the line extra well.

KEENINSKY could be a smoky. Last win in extra smart time over the 1200m in NZ.

I agree with what Brave Chief said re the horses down the bottom but I won't be backing Not a single doubt. I'll be on Foreplay. Also, I'll end up having something on the Rock if it's about $3 or longer, and if Danbird is still 100/1 I'll have something on it. It's won a G1 in NZ and it has 51.

Alinghi
Don't tell tom
fastnet Rock
Foreplay

I like Alinghi but she's to short....Don't tell tom could run a cheeky race with one the best jockeys in Oz on him..

I think Alinghi is a moral, she is the best horse i've seen, you have never seen Fastnet do what she did in the Diamond or the Guineas admittably against her own age but Hollow Bullet, Ballet Society, and Kylikwong are no walkers and what she did in Adelaide last start when running good time was unbelievable.

HHmmmmm...............

Maybe.

I might be wrong on Alinghi. Will know tomorrow.

Alinghi beat a bunch of no-necked slugs last start though. Also, she's never beat open age gallopers, and F.Rock did that carrying more than them. Granted her run behind regal roller last prep was bigger than John Holmes you know what, but still I dunno. Can't get excited about her.

Go the Rock!

FASTNET ROCK
NOT A SINGLE DOUBT
ALINGHI
FOREPLAY

It's not the horses she beat last time it's the way she did it, you can only beat the horses you run against and her run in the Lightning was outstanding under the circumstances. Segments isn't exactly a superstar, and arguably Legally Bay should have won the Oakleigh, but the Rock will be much better back to the straight and he's too good to discount. Your right we'll see tomorrow, Good Luck (not in the Newmarket but for the rest of the day). Hopefully more people have your opinion, and i can get $2.25, thats the price i got her in the Ascot Vale and we all know what happened there.

Current fixed odds market
 

No. Horse Win

003 Alinghi $1.90
001 Fastnet Rock $2.60
009 Not a Single Doubt $9.00
007 Foreplay $11.00
006 Don't Tell Tom $21.00
002 Special Harmony $34.00
004 Keeninsky $34.00
008 General Bayton $41.00
010 Our Quivira $51.00
005 Danbird $101.00

Market movement
 

No. Horse - Win Divi Last Post - Current Win Divi

003 Alinghi $1.85 $1.90
001 Fastnet Rock $2.60 $2.60
009 Not a Single Doubt $11.00 $9.00
007 Foreplay $13.00 $11.00
006 Don't Tell Tom $26.00 $21.00
002 Special Harmony $26.00 $34.00
004 Keeninsky $34.00 $34.00
008 General Bayton $41.00 $41.00
010 Our Quivira $51.00 $51.00
005 Danbird $101.00 $101.00

Fastnet Rock
Foreplay
Alinghi
Not a Single Doubt

Track good, all starting

Fastnet Rock
Our Quivira
Alinghi
Don't Tell Tom

foreplay
alinghi

Alinghi
Daylight
Daylight
Fasnet Rock
Daylight
Special Harmony

Alinghi
Fastnet Rock
Not A Single Doubt
Don’t Tell Tom

Race result
 

06 SEPPELT NEWMARKET
HCP
1200 Metres
3:15pm
2ND LEG EXTRA DOUBLE
1ST LEG QUADRELLA

WIN/PLACE
3 2.00 1.10
1...............1.20
7...............2.50

QUINELLA (1-3) 2.10
EXACTA (3-1) 3.60
TRIFECTA
(3-1-7) 16.90
FIRST 4
(3-1-7-2) 185.10
EXTRA DOUBLE (2-3) 9.60
SPECIAL DIV. (2-SCR) 4.40

(3) ALINGHI (DAMIEN OLIVER)
(1) FASTNET ROCK (G.BOSS)
(7) FOREPLAY (N.RYAN)

SCR - NIL
Quadrella Sub = 3