CHALLENGE STAKES - 1000M [Group 2] 13 Mar 05 - Warwick Farm
 

1 CHARGE FORWARD John O'Shea
2 GREEN FELLAS Gary Portelli
3 HOT SANDS Wal Bowditch
4 IMPALER David Atkins
5 SNIPPETSON Guy Walter
6 STAR OF FLORIDA Pat Duff
7 TAIKUN Bart Cummings
8 WAGER Gai Waterhouse

Weights
 

No Horse Trainer Weight

1 STAR OF FLORIDA Pat Duff 57.5
2 TAIKUN Bart Cummings 57.5
3 IMPALER David Atkins 57.5
4 GREEN FELLAS Gary Portelli 57.5
5 CHARGE FORWARD John O'Shea 55
6 SNIPPETSON Guy Walter 55
7 HOT SANDS Wal Bowditch 55
8 WAGER Gai Waterhouse 52.5

Final Field
 

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight

1 STAR OF FLORIDA Pat Duff H Bowman 3 57.5
2 TAIKUN Bart Cummings D Beadman 7 57.5
3 IMPALER David Atkins Dale Spriggs 6 57.5
4 GREEN FELLAS Gary Portelli 8 57.5
5 CHARGE FORWARD John O'Shea C Brown 5 55
6 SNIPPETSON Guy Walter G Boss 1 55
7 HOT SANDS Wal Bowditch 2 55
8 WAGER Gai Waterhouse C Munce 4 52.5

You'd go the Star all day here, 1000 is his go in life from (3) he should cross and win. He'll be around e/w odds to IMO.

With you Mr ed!
& chuck in TAIKUN, CHARGE FORWARD & WAGER to make up the multiples.

I'm with you both.

Star
Charge Forward

= Exacta

5 CHARGE FORWARD
1 STAR OF FLORIDA
8 WAGER
6 SNIPPETSON

(1) Star Of Florida
(5) Charge Forward
(2) Taikun
(8) Wager

I am going to wager on Wager.
Star is the obvious leader with his blistering speed,think Taikun and Wager wil be possied up nicely behind him.As long as he doesnt have too big a break on them at the furlong mark,and IF he starts to shorten stride,just feel he may get nailed.Wager is getting 5kgs weight ad also,and C. Munce is a very good big race rider.Just hope Gai has got her primed.

There's a couple of nags that could take STAR OF FLORIDA on early, if they do the race could made to order for CHARGE FORWARD. If they don't, doubt SOF will be run down, given the race distance is only 1000M. So I'll make them a bracket selection.

WAGER makes a habit of running 2nd so will include as the danger, whichever way the race is run.

The star should win but Snippetson will be parked probably just behind him and could run him down on the line..will be good value to :)

Well i think i've grossly overrated the price, perhaps $3.00 is more likely, Snippetson looks a very nice horse Mav, but real query at the class, and dropping back in distance.

I don't think the distance is a worry especially if there is a heap of speed on...His breeding tells me he has the class and i think he's learning and improving...
He'll get the gun run and might surprise..
Charge forward first up last time beat the Rock so it's not a serious betting race for me ,,but i might have something little on Snippetson to give me something to yell at down the straight :)

Who's his sire again?

TAIKUN
STAR OF FLORIDA
IMPALER
CHARGE FORWARD

Current fixed odds market
 

STAR OF FLORIDA $2.20
CHARGE FORWARD $3.20
SNIPPETSON $5.00
TAIKUN $6.50
WAGER $9.00
IMPALER $13.00
GREEN FELLAS $101.00
HOT SANDS $151.00

Star of Florida
Impaler
Charge Forward
Wager

STAR OF FLORIDA
CHARGE FORWARD
WAGER
IMPALER

My Ratings
 

Taikun $3.00
Charge Forward $3.33
Wager $3.75
Star of Florida $10.00

On projected peaks, these top 3 are a class above the rest here. I think they'll run over the top of Star over the last 100m. Snippetson's ratings don't look good enough at this time.

Fixed Odds
 

NSW TAB Fixed Odds

No Runner Jockey Win Place

1 Star Of Florida J.BOWMAN 1.90 0.00
5 Charge Forward C.BROWN 4.00 0.00
6 Snippetson G.BOSS 7.00 0.00
2 Taikun D.BEADMAN 7.00 0.00
8 Wager C.MUNCE 9.00 0.00
3 Impaler D.SPRIGGS 15.00 0.00
4 Green Fellas J.SHEEHAN 151.00 0.00
7 Hot Sands D.BEASLEY 201.00 0.00

Col Tidy's market:

1 - Star Of Florida 2.25
5 - Charge Forward 3.00
2 - Taikun 6.00
6 - Snippetson 7.00
8 - Wager 11.00
3 - Impaler 15.00
4 - Green Fellas 101.00
7 - Hot Sands 201.00


Some nice value Taikun & Wager. I'm on Wager @ $11 and Taikun @ $7

I hope your joking Mr Ed :)

he's a full Bro to Snowland...

Think Taikun hasnt come up this prep . doesnt look the same horse..

Charge Forward is the worry...but i'm sticking with Snipetson ..i'm tipping a marked improvement in him....
Not taking anything away from the Star,,,but i'm looking for value..
Trifecta
Snippetson
Star and Charge Forward
50 times costs $100 ....easy money ;)

Wager
Taikun
Charge Forward
Star Of Florida

CHARGE FORWARD
STAR OF FLORIDA
TAIKUN
SNIPPETSON

Star Of Florida looks well suited WFA has a good first-up strike rate and has gone very well this track and distance in the past. Easy winner 2 recent trials. My top pick.

The lightly raced Taikun has a great win strike rate and is undefeated 2nd-up. Winner recent Warwick Farm trial in reasonable time. Big danger.

Charge Forward is another with a good first-up record. 2 from 2 this distance but yet to win this track. Easy winner Rosehill trial recently in good time. Also a big danger.

Wager is yet another with a great first-up record and goes well this track. A couple of recent trials have been good. Include as next best.

Track good, all starting.

Current fixed odds market
 

STAR OF FLORIDA $2.10
CHARGE FORWARD $3.20
SNIPPETSON $5.00
TAIKUN $6.50
WAGER $9.00
IMPALER $15.00
GREEN FELLAS $101.00
HOT SANDS $151.00

Market movement
 

Horse - Win Divi Last Post - Current Win Divi

STAR OF FLORIDA $2.20 $2.10
CHARGE FORWARD $3.20 $3.20
SNIPPETSON $5.00 $5.00
TAIKUN $6.50 $6.50
WAGER $9.00 $9.00
IMPALER $13.00 $15.00
GREEN FELLAS $101.00 $101.00
HOT SANDS $151.00 $151.00

(2) Taikun
(1) Star Of Florida
(6) Snippetson
(5) Charge Forward

My Adjusted Ratings
 

Taikun $3.40
Star of Florida $3.78
Wager $4.25
Charge Forward $4.86

After a 2nd look, I upgraded Star's projected rating by 3 kg. A much fairer assessment I think. Downgraded Charge's by 1 kg. No real effect on the value chances but; Taikun & Wager are over the odds. I'm taking on the improving Snippetson in this class.

Well done to those that tipped Impaler. It couldn't win on it's latest form but it certainly could on it's best form.

Race result
 

06 CHALLENGE STK 3YO+
1000 Metres
3:58pm
1ST LEG DAILY DOUBLE
2ND LEG QUADRELLA

WIN/PLACE
3 19.00 3.40
6...............1.60
5...............1.40

QUINELLA (3-6) 67.10
EXACTA (3-6) 180.70
TRIFECTA
(3-6-5) 364.80
FIRST 4
(3-6-5-1) 826.10

(3) IMPALER (D.SPRIGGS)
(6) SNIPPETSON (G.BOSS)
(5) CHARGE FORWARD (C.BROWN)
(1) STAR OF FLORIDA (J.BOWMAN)

SCR - NIL
Quadrella Sub = 1

Star of Florida was far too short, i only ended up having a tri in the race, but with him to win so no good. Wasn't the winner impressive, he looks to have come back in great order. Snippetson ran well Mav, don't you hate it when a 30 to 1 pop gets ya?

Paid $31 up here because of the Qld bias for Star Of Florida. Have no idea why it was so short. I thought Snippetson and Charge Forward would both beat it and as it turned out I was right. Just didn't count on something else beating both of them though. Don't like betting on 1000m races so I just had a small each way bet on Snippetson and an any2 bet with Snippetson and Charge Forward.

Yep, the David Atkins trained Impaler certainly back to best form with a vengeance! breaking the track record set last year by Star Of Florida in the Challenge Stakes running 56.25 (last 600m 33.21). Reported next start will be either the T.J Smith or Galaxy.

I think he should go to the Galaxy i hear there is a pretty good filly going to the TJ Smith.

Take out Impaler and it was an easy race to pick,,,Dam horse has been struggling of late but has always been a quick horse...
Alinghi will scare everything away in the TJ ...she might be the only one left :)