Thursday March 10
 

Gday All

Early day again with the kiwis running... good luck to all

Pinjarra later

BALLARAT

Race 1 - BALLARAT HOLDEN MDN PLATE
3 $3.1 DANILOVA
4 $7.4 DEMAND
6 $7.4 FEVERISHLY
2 $9.7 CIANARA
10 $9.7 RED FOR LOU

Race 2 - FLOORWORLD MDN PLATE
2 $3.7 LESNER
8 $3.7 THE BOOT
1 $4.9 HOW UNCANNY
5 $6.6 SHOTGUN SAXON

Race 3 - GERFLOR COUNTRY S/CASE MDN
6 $2.4 FLOWING ALONG
9 $4.2 PERFECT DISGUISE
3 $5.6 CHEWY ON YOUR BOOT
1 $9.8 ABITAKASH

Race 4 - BRIDGESTONE UNDERLAYS HCP (C4)
3 $2.6 MAJOR BIG TIME
5 $2.6 EXCITUM
2 $6.2 PERFECT RHAPSODY
6 $10.8 URBAN WARRIOR

Race 5 - DELTA FLOORWORLD HCP (C2)
2 $2.7 OUR RAPHAEL
5 $4.8 HEXABEEL
1 $6.5 ORRONG PARK
11 $8.5 HOLLY AMANDA

Race 6 - PREMIUM FLOORS HCP (C1)
2 $2.3 CHINOTTO
4 $4.1 CIAO ROCKY
1 $7.3 DOURO VALLEY
3 $7.3 CHOCOLATE CHIP
5 $9.7 HOLMESA

Race 7 - FELTEX COUNTRY SHOWCASE (C1)
10 $3.5 FINE CHINA
6 $4.6 WARNE
1 $6.2 BRUNOCAVALLI
9 $8.2 FANTASY LAND
11 $10.8 MYAMBA GEM

Race 8 - VICSTATE SAVINGS & LOAN MDN
16 $3.9 UMABELLA
3 $5.2 JAMES BLONDE
12 $9.2 FULTON
13 $12.1 REGAL THIEF

LISMORE

Race 1 - FIVE RIVER ENTERPRIZES HCP
3 $3.0 ST LOR
5 $3.9 EL OF A LADY
6 $3.9 FLOREAT'S MAGIC
1 $5.3 CYACIAOBYE
7 $7.0 MISS HUNTER

Race 2 - DAYS MACHINERY (CASINO) MDN
4 $3.7 GIVE ME THE KNIGHT
9 $3.7 PRETTY ENOUGH
6 $5.0 NOW AND THEN
1 $8.9 BUMPERS SMILE
3 $8.9 NOBBY'S CREEK

Race 3 - SINGH FARM SUPPLIES MDN PLATE
7 $1.8 DUAL SUCCESS
10 $4.4 EMPIRE MAKER
2 $7.6 HI GERRY
3 $14.1 THE VOLGA SONG

Race 4 - SINGH FARM SUPPLIES PORKER CUP
3 $2.7 TRENDY TIME
4 $3.7 DANEFULL
1 $4.9 PLANET LOVER
2 $6.5 IMPREGNABLE
6 $8.6 HENRY GILBERT

Race 5 - PUNJAB & BIG WILL'S STUD MDN
12 $1.7 WIRRADILLA
2 $5.4 LADY AVALAH
9 $7.2 MOMENTS LIKE THESE
3 $9.6 CELEBRITY BLAZE

Race 6 - GEORGE & FUHRMANN (CASINO)-C4
1 $4.9 GLAD FAIR
4 $6.5 LANA BELLE
2 $8.7 LUCKY TOWN
6 $8.7 JILLIBY GIRL

Race 7 - IN'TL ANIMAL HEALTH HCP (C1)
3 $3.5 SHE NAGS
6 $6.2 MISS SHINKO
7 $8.1 GAHELA
9 $10.8 CASH ALL OVER

Race 8 - MILLERS REAL ESTATE HCP (C2)
2 $3.5 TEJANDA
4 $4.7 PAY DAY LASS
1 $8.3 FRISCO ROYALE
7 $8.3 DESTINY MAGIC
6 $10.9 SUN AND SAND

NEW ZEALAND

Race 1 - AWAPUNI C,E&G MDN STK
1 $2.1 BONJOUR
3 $5.1 O'CEIRINS LUCK
4 $5.1 CAPALL BORU
5 $11.9 DON DE'OREO
6 $11.9 FOUR STARS

Race 2 - AWAPUNI MDN STK
1 $2.8 BOB THE BUILDER
2 $3.7 BRUT
6 $6.6 PENTHOUSE BLUE
5 $8.6 RONNIE RAY

Race 3 - AWAPUNI 3YO MAIDEN STAKE
2 $1.9 PLATINUM SLIPPER
4 $4.5 KAVITA
1 $5.9 KING TURBO
5 $10.5 MAJOLICA

Race 4 - AWAPUNI F&M MDN STK
2 $3.8 SUIVEZ MOI
1 $6.8 PRINCESS JULIE
5 $9.0 CLASSIC TWO
6 $9.0 DUBLIN ROSE
7 $9.0 MAGGIE O'CEIRIN
8 $9.0 MAGIC ENCORE

Race 5 - AWAPUNI MAIDEN STAKE
9 $3.0 UTRECHT
6 $4.0 MAGIC FAMILY
7 $7.1 CASUAL LEON
1 $9.3 BREG

PORT LINCOLN

Race 1 - LINDSAY PARK PLATE
7 $3.3 NALOORA BELLE
2 $4.4 MASTER RAJA
6 $5.8 LA QUARRY VENTURE
1 $5.8 GLENNON
4 $5.8 SHINING LAKE
5 $7.8 JADA'S GIGGLE

Race 2 - FIELDERS MDN PLATE
9 $3.1 SHANNONS BELLE
14 $4.1 OXFORD ANNIE
4 $7.3 JIMMY JAMES
6 $7.3 LUNAR NATIVE
2 $9.5 OMENTIP

Race 3 - YALUMBA HCP (C4)
1 $2.9 BROOKMAN
3 $5.2 MOI
7 $5.2 MIRACLE GOLD
6 $6.9 MARCOZA
9 $9.1 WINTHORPE

Race 4 - CLIPSAL HCP (C6)
3 $3.7 LITTLE MISS CINDY
5 $4.9 PRINCE D'OR
7 $4.9 FEAR REIGN
6 $6.6 TENOR BILL
1 $8.8 FLINDERS' DREAM

Race 5 - EYRE AUTO GROUP HCP (C3)
10 $2.6 ASHIQ
4 $4.6 MR WATERMARK
7 $6.1 BENT EVENT
8 $6.1 VALENT
3 $11.0 SPHINXI

Race 6 - GRAND TASMAN HOTEL FLY HCP
8 $2.0 KING'S CHOICE
5 $4.8 TOVA
1 $6.3 CARDIAC ARREST
2 $8.5 ROMANDRAMA

Race 7 - CARLTON - PORT LINCOLN CUP
10 $2.0 MR. ICEMAN
14 $6.2 RYKO
11 $8.3 SEATTLE KEN
8 $11.0 GRISWALD

Race 8 - TOLL EXPRESS HCP (C1)
10 $3.0 RAPTORETTE
11 $5.3 LUNAR DANCE
3 $7.1 GALWAY LASS
1 $7.1 KENDITE
5 $9.3 SABAH VICE

RANDWICK - KENSINGTON

Race 1 - PETERSHAM HCP (C3)
4 $2.8 PRINCESS IRIS
1 $3.7 MAID FOR ME
2 $5.0 LADY AMELIA
6 $6.7 FORTY WINKS
3 $8.7 WILD PEPPER
5 $11.0 HUMILIATE


Race 2 - BURWOOD HCP (C6)
8 $3.3 GO GUS
6 $4.4 IRISH NOBLE
4 $5.9 BAMBU
5 $7.9 SIR TEE JAY
2 $7.9 SET UP
3 $10.3 HASSLE

Race 3 - MARRICKVILLE HCP (C3)
3 $4.3 FLAMING
4 $5.7 SLY DOG
2 $5.7 BREAK THE BARRIER
7 $7.6 IT'S ALL A GAME
1 $7.6 AVISE
8 $10.1 LE BRON

Race 4 - VOURIS & BELL HCP (C3)
1 $2.8 HIGH PRIORITY
5 $5.1 LUCIFINA
2 $6.7 INDIVIDUAL
10 $8.8 PENTUP

Race 5 - SYDNEY CITY LEXUS HCP (C3)
3 $3.7 DESERT CULTURE
2 $5.0 MEI LIN
1 $6.6 SOBRAINE
4 $6.6 TAPESTRY
5 $8.9 DIVA'S MAGIC

Race 6 - WILEY PARK HCP (C6)
6 $2.4 PIPER JO
10 $5.8 SKY CAN HURRI
5 $5.8 CANNY PRINCESS
9 $7.6 INATIN

Race 7 - ASHBURY HCP (C6)
12 $2.4 COLOSSEUM
2 $4.3 DUNE WARRIOR
10 $7.5 RICH COUNT
9 $10.0 RED MARAUDER

ROCKHAMPTON

Race 1 - X X X X BITTER HCP (C2)
1 $2.2 FOB POCKET
6 $3.9 MOTHER'S GEM
2 $5.2 MAGIC SOIREE
3 $9.2 GARRINCHA
4 $9.2 BROWNSVILLE GIRL

Race 2 - TOOHEYS NEW HCP (C5)
3 $2.7 CAMBOOYA
2 $3.7 EXPRESS FORCE
1 $4.9 REGAL ASCOT
4 $6.5 PILLIGA
5 $8.6 KIDLING

Race 3 - HAHN PREMIUM LIGHT MDN HCP
1 $3.1 CLASE BOY
3 $5.6 LIVINGSTONE COUNTY
4 $5.6 SWEET SACHET
9 $5.6 ORBOSTIENNE
5 $9.8 KOHAYA

Race 4 - Q T I S HCP (C2)
4 $2.2 BELLE JANGLES
2 $3.9 FOUR JACKS
6 $6.7 REDKAN LASS
1 $9.0 CROSSING
3 $9.0 DEADLY CLANG

Race 5 - HEINEKEN HCP (C4)
2 $2.6 MR CHIPS
3 $4.7 DANZIG WARRIOR
1 $4.7 STANZA'S GIFT
7 $6.3 LAURISTAN
4 $8.2 ALADDIN'S LAMP
6 $11.0 DELQUILO

Race 6 - X X X X HCP
2 $1.6 BOOBOO
6 $5.0 LADY LONG LEGS
8 $6.6 DEMON JACK
3 $12.2 STORMY MO

Race 7 - Q R S E MDN PLATE
6 $3.1 GENERAL ARTHUR
10 $4.1 BLAZING TIME
7 $7.4 KING CANNY
1 $9.7 ANDY'S SHADOW

Race 8 - Q R S E HAHN PREMIUM HCP (C1)
2 $3.9 CRUISING
1 $5.2 SIERRA SLAMMER
5 $5.2 SANITA
4 $6.9 HARD WOOD FOREST
9 $9.2 THE ROAN RANGER

PINJARRA
 

Gday All..

here are my ideas for today's meeting at Pinjarra WA

PINJARRA

Race 1 - 6 M M HCP (C1)
7 $6.0 MEDICO MISS
2 $6.0 RED WINE
8 $8.0 QUICK JOHNSON
4 $10.7 ZABBA DOO
9 $10.7 EGYPTOLOGY

Race 2 - SPORTS SATURDAY MDN STAKES
10 $1.6 ON THE WHISTLE
9 $8.8 MAATADAU
8 $12 COLUMBIAN NYMPH
4 $21 CALIBRE'S PRIDE

Race 3 - BUY SWAP AND SELL MDN STAKES
8 $3.0 GUSTI GOLA
11 $4.0 ENTREGA
12 $5.3 FRENCH SCENE
4 $9.3 SEYMOUR BOY

Race 4 - 70'S AT 7 MDN STAKES
10 $2.8 DASHING BELLE
15 $3.7 URBAN FROLIC
11 $6.7 GALA ASH
1 $8.7 COMMANDEER

Race 5 - WESTMINSTER FINANCE HCP (C4)
2 $2.7 MAMBO ITALIANO
7 $3.6 KENHOLM
10 $3.6 SET THE DATE
1 $11.0 ANNANONS GIFT


Race 6 - COLIN GREEN MEMORIAL HCP (C3)
4 $3.3 STREET JESTER
1 $3.3 ROYAL SHOWMAN
2 $5.9 SPIRIT OF CALINUP
11 $10.4 MR O'MALLEY

Race 7 - JUKEBOX SATURDAY NIGHT HCP-C1
3 $2.4 BLAZING COLORADO
6 $4.3 MY GARCIA
5 $7.5 RED CARDINAL
11 $10.1 MAPULE

Race 8 - GREATEST SONGS OF ALL TIME-C2
2 $3.6 MRS FEATHERS
8 $3.6 MISS ITALIA
7 $6.5 RAFFERTY RULES
5 $8.6 ECLUSIER
1 $11.0 FEARNOUGHT

Hey XPT love ya work, looks like you have a few roughies as the favourite in a few races today such as Colosseum in the last at Sydney.

Here are my bets for the day:

SR 2 (3) HASSLE.
SR 7 (3) LADY PERPETUATE.
MR 4 (2) PERFECT RHAPSODY.
MR 6 (1) DOURO VALLEY.
BR 2 (4) PILLIGA.
BR 4 (1) CROSSING.
BR 5 (2) MR CHIPS.
AR 3 (9) WINTHORPE.

Might have a bit of a nibble on these at odds:

SR 4 (4) COME IN SPANNER.
MR 6 (4) CIAO ROCKY.

Good luck all.

Gday Testa..

thats just the way they fall mate... sometimes they are very very wide of the mark .. sometimes not ( but keep in mind that I am not really a fav backer, and look for the long prices) ... I said something similar the other day when I wasn't thrilled with how they came out.. but managed to quinella that race with 4.. so who knows.. anyway good luck, I have found your ratings to be pretty damn good when you post em, and I hope ya can back plenty of winners :)

As for the last in Syd... My ratings will throw horses like this up every now and then because of the weightings I give to certain form variables.. sometimes it's good sometimes it can be pathetic... but that's the fun of this game I reckon..

saw the trial of Perfect Rhapsody(ballarat r4-no.2), bolted in, and if its anywhere near its best it should win it's race easily.

TIPS

BEST BETTING RACES:

RANDWICK R5
Top pick: 7 LIGHTLY DUSTED
Dangers: 1 Sobraine & 9 Amy Be Good

RANDWICK R7
Top pick: 3 LADY PERPETUATE
Dangers: 10 Rich Count & 4 Lantwin

PORT LINCOLN R7
Top pick: 2 CHICKALOO
Dangers: 1 You Little Beaut & 3 Zip Expulsion

NEXT BEST:

RANDWICK R2
Top pick: 1 RED HOT PEPPER
Dangers 4 Bambu & 3 Hassle

RANDWICK R4
Top pick: 2 INDIVIDUAL
Dangers: 4 Come In Spanner & 1 High Priority

BALLARAT R5
Top pick: 6 KING'S CHAMP
Dangers: 1 Orrong Park & 2 Our Raphael


RATINGS

TOP RATING RACES:

RANDWICK R7
3 LADY PERPETUATE (59.0) $5.50
10 RICH COUNT (58.5) $6.10
11 SKY FURY (58.5) $6.10
4 LANTWIN (57.5) $7.65
8 BIBURY COURT (57.0) $8.60
9 RED MARAUDER (57.0) $8.60

PORT LINCOLN R7
2 CHICKALOO (58.5) $2.15
1 YOU LITTLE BEAUT (53.5) $6.70
7 KELMARK (51.5) $11.95
3 ZIP EXPULSION (51.0) $13.45
11 SEATTLE KEN (48.5) $26.90
12 SOUND TYCOON (47.0) $30.70
6 LINCOLN SEA (46.5) $35.85

NEXT BEST:

RANDWICK R5
7 LIGHTLY DUSTED (57.0) $3.80
5 LADY DIVA (56.0) $4.75
1 SOBRAINE (54.0) $7.60
9 AMY BE GOOD (53.5) $8.45
8 VANIDOSA (53.0) $9.50
4 TAPESTRY (49.0) $27.15

BALLARAT R5
6 KING'S CHAMP (55.0) $2.25
2 OUR RAPHAEL (50.0) $7.05
4 LAGO'S PEAK (50.0) $7.05
9 SHACKLED ROSE (47.0) $16.05
1 ORRONG PARK (45.5) $25.00
5 HEXABEEL (44.5) $28.10

You're doing well so far Testa. :)

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOO
 

Blowing my own trumpet here... *wooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhoooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooo*

Race 6 - WILEY PARK HCP (C6)
6 $2.4 PIPER JO
10 $5.8 SKY CAN HURRI WON WON WON $61.70 (NSW)
5 $5.8 CANNY PRINCESS
9 $7.6 INATIN

Makes up for missing by a small margin on a 40/1 shot early in the day (Ashiq, Port Lincoln Race 5)

Excitum did the right thing at Ballarat which was pretty nice too

Has been a fair sort of day... :)

HEY, WELL DONE XPT!!! :)


Personally, I've been trying to cut down on bets and I've only bet in 5 races today. Out of the 4 races I rated, I only had one bad result with Randwick R5, and out of the two top rating races that I mainly concentrated on, I found the trifecta and first4 in both of them! The first4 in the last in Sydney paid $4367.

GOOD ON YOU.
 

Glad to see you kicking a goal.
Great stuff.
Cheers.
darky.

Xpt & Sportz,

After you do your ratings how do you bet your selections?

For example, do you only bet the selections that are greater odds than you rate, or do you bet them in order they drop.

Also, xpt you rate every race each day which appears to be a lot of work how long does it take for this process, and how many races do you bet on a day?

Cheers

Smithy

I actually backed Bent Event in the 5th at Port Lincoln, sorry XPT....lol.

Well you certainly had a day out yesterday, some very nice overs such as Excitum, Umabella and Mei Lin to name a few, well done, top stuff.

smithy,

I usually back any horse rated on top by itself, but it will be a smaller bet if it is not the required price. If I have two horses rated clearly ahead of the rest, I will usually back both, again size of the bet depending on comparison with my rated price. With the 3rd and 4th rated horses, it depends on the value and on also on my personal opinion. For example yesterday in the last in Sydney, Lantwin came out rated 4th, but in my own personal opinion, I had it as 2nd pick. I very rarely bet on horses rated lower than 4th unless they are HUGE odds. They are mainly included for multiple selections like trifectas and first4s.

Here's how I've gone with my win bets on my top rating races for the last week. The dividends are Unitab divs, but I've got better than that on most occasions:

Saturday Mar 5

CAULFIELD R5
2 LAD OF THE MANOR (71.0) $3.10 2 units
6 BEAUTIFUL GEM (68.5) $5.50 1 unit
5 ROMAN ARCH (64.5) $14.80 1 unit

CAULFIELD R6
2 REGAL ROLLER (73.0) $2.30 6 units $2.80
7 SAVABEEL (69.0) $5.70 2 units

CAULFIELD R8
2 CHARNWOOD GREEN (63.5) $3.80 3 units $8.00
8 MODERN ERA (61.5) $5.90 1 unit

ROSEHILL R7
4 LOTTERIA (72.0) $3.90 2 units
5 HOLLOW BULLET (68.5) $8.60 1 unit
10 DANNI MARTINE (68.5) $8.60 1 unit $18.90

ROSEHILL R8
9 DANCE HERO (70.0) $4.80 2 units $3.80
2 FALKIRK (69.5) $5.30 1 unit
1 DESERT WAR (69.5) $5.30 1 unit

ROSEHILL R9
2 SEUL AMOUR (65.0) $3.20 4 units $3.50
3 HAVANA WIND (64.5) $3.50 2 units

DOOMBEN R5
1 CELTIC TRIAL (66.0) $1.70 6 units $2.30
4 IMAGE OF REALITY (61.0) $5.40 2 units

DOOMBEN R6
9 HISSY FIT (58.5) $2.20 3 units
1 BLU SKY MINING (53.0) $7.90 1 unit

CHELTENHAM R5
1 OUTPOINT (56.0) $3.00 4 units $3.50
2 ROYAL IMAGE (54.0) $4.70 2 units

Sunday Mar 6

QUEANBEYAN R8 (CUP)
1 SHY PRINCE (55.5) $3.65 3 units
4 PROTECTIVE CUSTODY (54.0) $5.05 1 unit

TERANG R7 (CUP)
4 ACTION SHOT (60.0) $1.95 4 units
2 MANY ARE CALLED (56.5) $4.30 2 units $4.00

PINJARRA R7 (CUP)
13 SPIDER STRIKES (66.0) $5.25 3 units $6.90
4 HERO MAK (65.5) $5.85 1 unit

Wednesday Mar 9

K.GRANGE R5
7 FOUROFAKIND (64.5) $3.95 3 units $3.50
5 PYRENEES PRINCE (63.0) $5.45 1 unit

K.GRANGE R6
8 PONTE PICCOLO (61.0) $5.65 2 units $3.10
10 FANTASIA (61.0) $5.65 2 units

Thursday Mar 10

RANDWICK R7
3 LADY PERPETUATE (59.0) $5.50 2 units
10 RICH COUNT (58.5) $6.10 1 unit
4 LANTWIN (57.5) $7.65 1 unit $6.50

PORT LINCOLN R7
2 CHICKALOO (58.5) $2.15 4 units
1 YOU LITTLE BEAUT (53.5) $6.70 2 units $4.20

Gday smithy...

to knock over 4 meetings, downloading the form, sorting, and rating takes me about 2 hours per day... when you have 4 meetings or less it can take less, Yesterday there were 50 odd races I rated, today there are 32, so it is a relatively light load today.. I am only able to rate them at the moment because I am on holidays from work for a few weeks, and my girlfriend has been pretty ********** last couple of weeks, so she hasn't been on my case (that will change tho *sigh*) I am rating them a wee bit differently than normal because I have more time because I am not working... when I go back it will be different.

As to betting, I hate telling people how to bet ... My ratings are not accurate enough to back the top rater... that way lays the soup kitchen and madness.. However in my opinion, Testarossa (when he posts) and Sportz and William are far better than me at the one horse thing... they are amazingly accurate.

I think my ratings are good enough for people who multi bet (meaning multiple horses in a race)or trifecta and ff bettors, and take the overs when they present. Now you can make the overs what ever you like, it can be just better than the price I post or double, treble 4x or whatever.. That is totally up to the person using the ratings and their idea of what value is.... The prices I post are set with most of TAB takeout included.. or if you like markets of about 116%.

Another way that I experimented with a while back and seems to work ok is to split your bet into a Unit ( $10 minimum Unit) and you split it as follows.. Now remember you can make a unit whatver you like 20 50 or 100 whatever.. but the minimum is 10.. place 1 dollar on each of the top 4 then place a 4 horse quinella.. from my past experience sometimes you can make a fair profit whilst not doing a whole lot of damage on bad days..

If I am betting to win... I look at the horses rated up to about $11 give or take and bet the overs.. In my opinion, the more volatile races (where you will get a long prices winner) are Maidens and low class races,( a lot of time it is guess work working those races out, because of not a lot of disclosed form) races on a Saturday throw up big prices sometimes particularly at tracks like Flemington, Victoria Park,, ************ Moonee Valley I can't pick a winner.. at the moment my melbourne form is pretty ordinary :( and contrary to what most of the pundits will tell you, Jumps and Steeples are a GOOD bet, these are normally old horses with lots and lots of form and usualy run true to their form..

I hope this helps