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The CD System
The following system, known as "The CD System", is really simple. You back any horse that is a previous course/distance winner in the race, provided there are no other previous course winners in the race. (It doesn't matter how many other distance winners there are in the race.)
12/2/2005 No qualifiers. 19/2/2005 Moonee Valley Race 5: Rockford Bay UNPLACED ($15.00; no place betting) Eagle Farm Race 1: Sir Monashee FIRST $4.20/$1.30 ($4.80 at 1/4 odds) 26/2/2005 Caulfield Race 1: Lodger UNPLACED ($31.00 at 1/4 odds) Canterbury Race 2: Carry On Cutie FIRST $2.60/$1.50 ($3.10 at 1/4 odds) 5/3/2005 No qualifiers. Selections: 4 Wins: 2 (50.00%) Places (including wins): 2 (50.00%) Win return: $6.80 (SuperTAB); $7.90 (SP) Place return: $2.80 (SuperTAB); $3.48 (SP) Number of runners: 31 (12.90%) Number of winners: 4 (50.00%) Relative frequency factor: 3.8750 (50.00/12.90) Expected number of winners: 0.6298 Actual-to-expected ratio: 3.1754 |
Your so kind.. I'll add that to my stable. Do you think its advantagous to eliminate anything over say $12 ? Thanks
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Have you got a DVD system too Glenno? :)
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trust you sportz!
i might even think of burning this one - might be a keeper |
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Ummm, yes, I knew that Glenno. It was just a little attempt at humour. Obviously not a very good one. :o
Well, DVD could stand for Distance/Value/Days since last start. I'm sure we could make a system up out of that. How about this: Races 1400m or longer. Placed at last start no more than 7 days ago. Must be $5 plus in pre post betting. Must be only one qualifier in the race. Have no idea how well that one would go, but it doesn't sound too bad for something I thought up in seconds. |
SPORTZ.
Going on current commercial system prices should be worth around the $250 mark.
Probably work just as well as any of them. What you require now is a bit of advertising. The sort of thing like . $300 to $300,000 in 3 weeks using 3 % of the bank etc etc. Cheers. darky. |
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For MSBA/Sat racing and using the Sportsman formguide, the results during the period 12/2/2005 to 5/3/2005 were as follows: Selections: 14 Wins: 0 (0.00%) Places (including wins): 4 (28.57%) Place return: $10.60 (SuperTAB); $10.55 (SP) Number of horses: 155 (9.03) Number of winners: 14 (0.00%) Expected number of winners: 1.6843 I have eliminated "win return", "relative frequency factor" and "actual-to-expected ratio" because there were no winners during the period. |
Well, I said I thought it up in a matter of seconds. It shows, doesn't it? :D
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i guess those commercial ones are made up in a few minutes then. bit more time, for slightly better results
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Hey Glenno, just out of curiosity, what happens if you change that price rule to read less than $5?
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JUST AS I THOUGHT.
As good as the commercial ones out there.
Cheers. darky. |
Wrong Call (Rosehill race 3) was the only qualifier for The CD System on 12/3/2005, but was scratched at the barrier, so he is not included in the results.
The updated results are as follows: Selections: 4 Wins: 2 (50.00%) Places (including wins): 2 (50.00%) Win return: $6.80 (SuperTAB); $7.90 (SP) Place return: $2.80 (SuperTAB); $3.48 (SP) Number of runners: 31 (12.90%) Number of winners: 4 (50.00%) Relative frequency factor: 3.8750 Expected number of winners: 0.6298 Actual-to-expected ratio: 3.1754 Current USCF rating: 1775 [same as last week] Current ICC rating: 100 [same as last week] |
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Ummm, excuse my statistical ignorance, but what does all that mean? Current ICC rating??? Sounds more like Cricket to me. :o |
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The ICC [International Cricket Council] rating is based on the number of winning/losing bets a system has had during the day. If there is only one selection during the day, the One-Day International formula applies (go to www.icc-cricket.com/icc/odi/rules.html for details); if two or more selections during the day, the Test formula applies (go to www.icc-cricket.com/icc/test/rules.html for details). The USCF [United States Chess Federation] rating takes into account the number of selections, the actual number of winners and the expected number of winners during the day. The standard formula is used. For details, go to http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/ratings/approx/approx.html. (BU stands for Boston University.) |
Updated selections for The CD System are as follows:
19/3/2005 Doomben Race 2: Whydinya UNPLACED ($14.00 at 1/4 odds) 26/3/2005 Caulfield Race 6: Laura's Charm SECOND $2.80 ($11.00 at 1/4 odds) Eagle Farm Race 1: Taablinga Lass UNPLACED ($17.00 at 1/4 odds) 2/4/2005 Moonee Valley Race 2: Charted SECOND $1.10 ($2.10 at 1/4 odds) Race 4: Miss Dettori THIRD $2.10 ($8.00 at 1/4 odds) Doomben Race 3: Rosamia THIRD $1.60 ($4.60 at 1/4 odds) 9/4/2005 Warwick Farm Race 2: Caught Courting THIRD NTD ($1.80 at 1/3 odds) |
Glenno.......... give the game away son.... give the game away.....
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For the record, this was the original 'cdsystem' from which the cdsystems site http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/ was built in May 2000.
The website has this comment about the system: "The logic behind it is fairly obvious, in that many horses have their favourite tracks as well as having an optimum distance. If a horse is the only one in the race to have won over today's course and distance it basically has much less to prove than its rivals in that respect.
"Obviously there are other important form criteria, such as the class of the race and the ground conditions, but the essence of this series of systems is simplicity, and it is often the fact that horses are unfancied due to other criteria but are selected because they comply with a simple system that means it can find the bigger prices that more scrupulous study would often dismiss." |
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I tried. |
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I wonder how what your rating for the "cdsystems" website would be. |
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