Finally the horses have learned to read !
 

Hi all,
A couple of weeks ago I said that I was having better than average success (for me) with my own ratings scheme...

The main problem being that the horses and jockeys didn't read my ratings before the race, or didn't agree with them.

Well on Saturday at Rosehill I had but one selection in race 8... River to the Sea... It wasn't what I'd call a special but I had it as a real chance...In fact the only serious contender

I had every intention of backing it well but when I saw the price ($21 in the paper) $40 near post time I fainted and just had a little interest bet E/W.. Nice but not the grandio that I seek. I'm lacking confidence in my own work.

Why o'why do I loose faith in my own selections because of favourites?

Old habits are hard to break..

Remember I said Al Maher would win his next.. Thanks Gai... Stick with your training plan, it's going great.

Now all I've got to do is teach Picket Fence to read and I'll be well on my way.

All the best for the upcomming Easter festival..

Regards
OzPunter

I know just how you feel,,,,i gave her a real chance as well,,,,she was 50/1 up here and although i had her rating 4th i should of had atleast a saver on her :(

reminds of an old race horse used to run in sydney around 1985.
Jogger they said never raced well without first checking the bookies boards.
anything above 40/1 seemed to produce extraordianary efforts.

Horse or Trainer reading the bookies board Topsy.

Salient point Ed that last one. BTW what do you mean when you say

Thanks Gai... Stick with your training plan, it's going great.

I'd be keen to hear what you mean so I can learn from it.

Gai's training plan..
 

Duritz

Salient point Ed that last one. BTW what do you mean when you say Thanks Gai... Stick with your training plan, it's going great. I'd be keen to hear what you mean so I can learn from it.

Dear Duritz,

A couple of weeks ago I alerted to the number of times I had seen a race where Gai had two or more class runners.. One would win and the other do well but not win. Then a couple of weeks later up pops the bridsmaid.... Sort of a consolation prize for the owners.. Anyway if you watch her carefully, is there a pattern or am I just imagining things?

Regards

OzPunter

Yes, I remember you saying that, but I was confused by it, because Al Maher was beaten by Shania Dane which is actually trained by John Hawkes. There wasn't another Waterhouse runner in that race. The only instance on that day of what you mention is Desert War which ran a nice race behind Dance Hero, so I guess we should be on Desert War next start.

As for Gai Waterhouse training patterns, on Saturday Al Maher was having it's second run back from a spell but it was backing up just 7 days from it's first-up run. Usually, that's a definite no no. If it wasn't Gai Waterhouse, I don't think I would have considered it.

reply to sportz
 

Dear Sportz,

Sorry, You are correct, I've let my imagination run away with me... I actually alerted to the pattern back when Winning Belle and Dance Hero were coming back.. When I saw Al Mahers run I immediately clicked to the clue even though there wasn't another Waterhouse runner in that race..

Sorry everyone, I got a bit carried away with myself there.. I was still flushed with my success with River To The Sea... (It was short lived though, my daughter immediately pounced.. And now I'm buying a set of tyres and a wheel ballance)... Oh well, that's what dads do..

Regards

OzPunter

same with me and world peace at rosehill. Except i did back my work and ended up a nose short!! Would have been a very nice pay day!

Logically you would think that after I spent 8-10 hours assesing just three or four races I'd have the confidence to back 'em but I purposely do not look at the prices before I start and only after I've made my eliminations and ranked my selections... The favourite often does not come out on top..

I know that there is little relationship between the prices and the winning chances percentage wise, this is what gives rise to the theory that if you can price your own selections and back only those payng higher value you must be ahead over time...

But when my top choice is $40-$50 on the tab I get the jitters...If it had been at $5-$10 I would have placed my full bet but instead I got the doubts and opted for $10 place and $5 win.. Nice but not as nice as $50 straight out... That'd pay for the tyres and I'd have some beer money left..

Regards
OzPunter

Yeh, i did the same thing at mooney valley yesterday but i didnt back it at all. Tonkaa in race 6 or 7. Paid 28 bucks. Ended up backing Codify which got a whopping check and that was the end of that.

So why do we suffer this problem? I know my ratings are good and I put in a lot of work so how do I get over this hurdle?

Regards
OzPunter

confidence.
the horse had gauci on it. it was a last start winner.
a second and 2 3rds over the distance.
had a few positives there.
but i guess a saver at least would be the go.

but we all do it dont we.
up against a short priced favorite.

Lol my daughter is only one, she's yet to cost me too much.......

Think I'll teach her to trade on Betfair, pay her way.

Hey atleast you guys backed the horse I decided to not even back it would have fixed up what was a crap day for me. I have done that far to many times made my bet smaller when the odds are bigger mainly because when I usually do put the same sort of bet as normal on they usually give me nothing at all.

The best advice I can give if your daughter is only one... Not only give here a good education but teach her the value of a good education. That way she'll be able to buy you a nice retirement home.

Good Luck Ms Duritz

Regards

OzPunter

Yes, that's what gives me the jitters...

An article I read once in a magarzine (might have been Turf Monthly) said theres value in setting a target and dividing that by the price you can get... i.e. for River To The Sea at $40 to win $100 you'd bet $2.50 (or $5.00) to round things up, similarly if you had Toulouse Latrec at $2.50 you'd bet $40.00 to get back $100 (your target)

The logic is that you bet small when the odds are long and you bet long when the odds are small.. Perhaps that might fix my jitters a bit...
I normally bet a fixed amount ($50) straight up and try to get the best price then I have savers to try to get my money back or soften the blow if it don't work the way I want.. The Trifecta incidently paid >$6000 wouln't that be nice.
Regards

OzPunter