Contrary to popular belief that punters should follow the so-called "smart money", results from saturday indicate otherwise.

From 24 races in Bris, Syd and Melb:
# 18 winners were drifters in the market (from opening price);
# 4 winners were firmers;
# 2 were steady.

So forget about following this so-called "smart money" nonsense and back horses because they have the right ingredients to win. A horse doesn't know what odds it is!!!!!

Source: TABQ.

I'm suprised no one has commented on this.
Has anyone else noticed this?
I haven't yet looked at a no of weeks to see if market firmers have better records, but I would not be suprised that market drifters have a better winning record - after all most punters lose - therefore if you want to be amongst the 5% that win - don't back what everyone else is backing!

Privateer,

You do a lot of stats.
Have you looked into this???


Remember who cuts the grass

I ran a quick analysis over a 3 month period (Oct-Dec 2001) looking only at gallops with at least a $50000 win pool - this gave a sample size of about 2700 race winners. I compared the 15min price with the final dividend (based on Tabcorp figures) and it gave the following:

44% firmed by at least 10%
25% were steady (less than 10% movement)
31% were drifters by at least 10%

Thanks Becareful.

How did you get the stats for that many races? Do TAB's provide such info?

Anyway, those results look pretty even to me. 56% of the time, winners aren't firming.

Another way to look at it - would be to compare odds in friday's paper or saturday with the SP.

Grasscutter - Tabcorp does provide this info on their website (it is the only TAB that does) but I have my own database with all the results, TAB prices, etc in it. I have a program which gets the info off the various TAB websites. Only problem is when one of the sites decides to stop working like the NSW site has done today :sad:

Personally I feel that whether it is firming or drifting is not that important - you need to look at the value of the horse as close to the start as possible - not worry about what it was 15 minutes ago!

Yes, I'm fully aware of that and use it to my advantage.

I bet within specific price parameters and only within 10 minutes of race time.

Obviously some firmers are as a result of professionally based moves but I think that the majority are as a result of mug punters associating any betting fluctuation with a horses ability to perform well in a race. They see a horse firm a point or two and see that as an indication of impending success.

Punters need to realise that it is a horse they should be supporting, not a betting price and remember that value is paramount to betting success.

Privateer

bc..you must have been reading over my shoulder as I typed!

Tote odds shortening means nothing despite what the presenters on Sky gush about. Most tote activity occurs in the final 10 minutes of betting and most of the time the shorteners/drifters are simply corrections according to the horses on course price. How often do you hear one of the Sky presenters say " the big money/smart money has come for number 6 Radish - $10 into $6 now. WOW! "
Quite often when examining on course fluctuations (the real indicator of where money is going) Radish probably opened at $5 and drifted to $6 and the punters who saw $10 on the tote with 5 minutes to go crunched it.
As for on course fluctuations, the reason most winners are drifters is that most runners are drifters. The opening prices bet are a joke ( about 150% in most instances)and are there to test the water. Prices generally drift to about 120% without a nibble for anything and then in the last 10 minutes or so the real activity takes place.
With the totes it's also a consideration that some horses, particularly in later races, may open very short because of a big allup bet going into it. As the pool swells most of the money is for the other runners who are over the on course odds because of the shorty. Things usually level out but the illusion to off course punters is that there is some sort of plunge going on.
I have often wondered also how much one bet can circulate in the betting ring. By this I mean if a punter places $10000 on a 5/1 shot, how often is that bet laid off around the ring. One $10000 bet from a keen owner could be bet back a dozen times and give the appearance of a "bit of a go".
My bottom line is, don't let any betting activity influence your thinking.

G'day all. What a great thread and great information, analysis and advice. Although I'm no more than a fun punter, your info got me looking at the archived results on Supertab. Just a quick look at Melbourne metro meetings on Saturdays since the start of this calendar year. My mini survey looks at the horse at the SHORTEST tote quote 15 minutes prior to each race start

In total there were 182 horses which were tote fave with 15 minutes to go.
Of these 49 won (27 percent)
for a loss on turnover of 17 percent

51 firmed to a shorter quote, even marginally, at race start
Of these 16 won (31 percent)
for a loss on turnover of 8 percent

16 remained at exactly the same quote at race start
Of these 5 won (31 percent)
for a loss on turnover of 4 percent

115 drifted to a longer quote, even marginally, at race start
Of these 28 won (24 percent)
for a loss on turnover of 22 percent

I know the sample size is probably too small for any really useful conclusions, but any comment about the bigger loss by the drifters?? What does it all mean??

Thanks for all the input.

Conclusion:

1. Find the horse with the right winning ingredients.
2. Locate the best price (ignore fluctations of other horses)
3. Bet if best price represents good value
4. Enjoy your wins and learn from your loses.

Numerator,

A couple of points on your post.
1. I think when you are looking at this you have to group the "marginal change" ones in with same price grouping. Because of roundings, etc small changes are pretty much meaningless.
2. On your figures there is very little difference between the strike rate of all the groups - certainly with the smallish sample size you could not say with any confidence that "firmers" are more likely to win than "drifters"
3. The larger loss by drifters may be caused by the "false favourites" on TAB caused by large allup investments as per Mr Magic's post? Don't really know (also the difference is only 5% from the average - it may not really be significant in a larger sample size).

My conclusion from these figures is never bet on TAB favourite regardless of whether it is firming or drifting - look for the horses with value in the $8 - $20 range :smile:

Grasscutter - I agree with those conclusions!

Thanks Mr Magic, I never even thought of that.

I like Privateer's attitude. Sounds like he picks his horses first and then only bets them when the price goal is met.

I'm less discerning, but I might check my figures and see if any short priced losers have done my dinner. Doubt it, a bet is a bet in my method.

Placegetter

Hi Guys,

Have a look at http://www.maxpages.com/nickdimou for an extremely interesting read on this topic.

This guy's not selling his method of "following the money" he gives it for free. It seems like a fairly in-depth look at TAB fluctuations and how to isolate the "educated" firmers from the "follow the leaders". I haven't tested the method because I personally don't bet with the TAB but it makes for some interesting reading. You just have to put up with a couple of annoying pop up ads.

Cheers

The problem with following TAB fluctuations is this:

1. Many bookies lay bets off on the tote when the odds are over the S/P. This gives a false reflection of betting trends. Let's say I am a bookie offering 10/1 on a selection. The TAB price is 16/1....not that uncommon. Someone idles up to me with $500 each way. Two minutes before the jump the 16/1 tote odd drifts from $16.00 to $16.80. The bookie lays off at least part of that $500 bet so if it wins he only has to payout at 10/1 and pockets the rest. Not bad eh?
Seen it done in disguise with a runner many many times over.

2. Most activity is in the final two minutes before the jump and not updated until just after the jump. The TAB computer system takes quite a few seconds to finally calculate the pools and final dividends.

3. Now if we are talking S/P that's a whole different story. You need to have a bookie who is willing to give you the firmers and betting trends. Or you have to be oncourse to track it yourself.

4. In following the smart money on the TAB you are losing all value and usually getting under the real price/chance about the horse.
Try following the drifters on the TAB as the average punter goes for the favorite. There is a lot of good value on the tote leaving out the favorite. If you consider the favorite to be a good thing, then either bet with a bookie or keep out of the race.

My advice only, and hope it helps.

P.S. mrmagic - very good and important point. Bookies do lay off to other bookies. The oldest trick in the book is to accept your $10,000 bet - AND NOT FIRM your odds, giving you time to lay off at decent odds to other bookies. Only after the layoff (within a few seconds), you firm the odds to ensure the other guys still offer as good or better than your price.

Another interesting point is to look at the favorites that won on the TAB and compare the final price with the S/P, amazing how little value you get on the TAB compared to S/P.


[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-04 14:02 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-04 14:04 ]

I'll give my bit for what its wortth.
I too have carryed out an analysis of the so called 'Smart Money' and it really isnt all that smart at all.
Over a 12 month period monitoring 8 races a day from different venues the runner the most money going on it only wins around 39% of it races.
My stat's revealed placings in 68% of races.
In both the win and place results the average return about 20c under the break even return needed.
This is very marginally better than backing favourites but still not profible.

Its easy to get hooked at first glance, but over the long term you WILL LOOSE

Dude.