Newspaper Tipsters Panels
 

My research tells me ,that one will strike more winners chasing a conscences panel of tipsters rather than a single tipster.
e.g. Weekend Ausralian , Herald ect.
The Wizard racing paper has a 36% SR from its top 2 conscences panel of computer generated selections. Big difference in SR, similar average div.
They can have days where they strike short prices when they win but they also have prices that get up at suprisingly higher than expected.

Individual tipsters have an average SR of 35%
Therefore ,expect a longer run of outs, their prices can be stronger ,but it depends on the day if the the Favs want to get up all day or not.

If one is good at separating the 2 horses out of the top 2 selections for a result , one should have a million dollars by Xmas.
With a 45% strike rate from the top 2 , the people advocating that this is not the way to go & that there are better ways of doing this ,should have no problem sorting the strongest selection from the said top 2 & only backing them if they are satisfied with the price on offer. Otherwise let the race go.

The fact remains , that the top 2 have a 45% SR , so build on that.


Idea No.1
Target the top 2 in most Fav column in the Weekend Ausralian.
Target races 1400M+
Bet the one with the worst weight rating (100Pters) as per TABQ or Wizard form guide.ect.
What we are trying to do here ,is chase the value runner of the 2.
Its amazing how many winners this produces & some at very good prices.


I would like so see if there are punters out there who would like to share some different ideas, on how they like to use them.

Consensus the way to go.
 

G'day Bhagwan,
There is definite evidence to support your assertion re consensus opinion being superior to any one individual's opinion in selecting the correct outcome of future events. I remember reading an article on the subject in "New Scientist" a couple of years ago. I have made a cursory search for the magazine in my library without success so far but I keep them and it is somewhere close at hand. If you are interested I will find it out and post the relevant item on this thread.
The point of the article,as I recall, briefly, was that the opinion had to be from people who had studied the question and given it serious consideration. All that sounds rather obvious I know but the results were impressive. (From memory the consensus was of opinions on who would win major categories at the Oscars.)
I also remember that there was a rating competition held a few months ago on this forum or the other racing forum and that the tipsters' results were remarkable as far as the majority (i.e. consensus) picking the winner (and exotics) was concerned. During the competition one of the contestants suggested that it might be the basis for a system. I don't know if anthing came of it but I'm sure he was right and I'm even more sure that they had a better strike rate than newspaper tipsters.
All the best.

Bhagwan,
I'm intensely interested in having a million dollars by Xmas but I think I'm missing the start of this thread. I see you state individual tipsters have a strike rate of 35% from the first two selections but I can't see where the 45% figure came from.
Can you fill in the blanks for me please.

KV

The 45% he's talking about is from the top 2 horses in the Most Favoured column in the tipsters poll. In other words the consensus of all the tipsters in the paper.

Thanks Sportz.

KV

BGHWAN.
 

I dont know if this would work re using the WIZARD but say you eliminated the 18 pointer and bet the next 2 consensus horses .
The theory being that every mugs on the $1.70 horse and the next 2 could be the basis of very good prices.
Cheers.
darky.

With a 45% strike rate from the top 2 , the people advocating that this is not the way to go & that there are better ways of doing this ,should have no problem sorting the strongest selection from the said top 2 & only backing them if they are satisfied with the price on offer. Otherwise let the race go.

Good on you Bhagwan,
I'm sick of the knockers, and what you say is so true, what a great opportunity for all the experts, all they have to do is look at 2 mules and sort them out in relation to form and price.
Keep up the good work, I'm positive there are many on the forum that appreciate your time and effort.
Whether they use your methods or not is up to the individual, but as far as I'm concerned you put more into this forum as far as trying to help than any other contributor.

All the best

Does Joe Average bet odds on?
 

Hi Darky,
I see this opinion expressed fairly often but I wonder if the average bloke in the TAB actually bets on odds on pops for the win? Sure he'll include them in the exotics but I reckon most mugs still stick to the old "odds on, look on" theory. Then they try to find something to beat what is probably a fair bet, even at odds on.
Regards

FOXWOOD.
 

Hi FOXWOOD .
Its my observation commensurate with the amount of grog consumed at the pub or club by the average Joe punter that they spend approximately 1 minute scanning the TAB wallsheet/ the TAB screen before plonking the hard earned on the shortest priced horse on the screen.
I don,t mean to be rude by that observation.Just what I have noticed over the years.
Cheers.
darky.

Bhagwan this is not a bad idea :).

Since you bought it up i decided to find 5 tipsters from various places and use the top tips. When 4 of the 5 tipsters picked the same horse it gave amazing results for the saturday just gone and was over 4 meets.

Sels 7
Wins 6
Wret $15.20

I highly doubt it will keep going like this but you never know lol. Anyway i'll keep you informed of how it goes.

Thanks for the idea. ;)

Hi Darkydog,
The idea sounds logical & should produce some fine prices,
as long as at least one of them is paying $7.00+
Maybe another way of betting the remaining 2 selections is to bet 4 units on the one that one feels is the stronger of the 2 to win & then bet then bet the other , one unit to win.

Hi Racingnovice,
The idea you have tried (4 of the 5 tipsters ) will produce a lot of winners , approx 40% SR but what you will find , is that a lot will be prices on the shorter end of town ,which means you may find that one will be basicly breaking even ,so one has to only bet when the price is approx. $2.20+ at jump time. Otherwise no bet that race.

Hi Kenchar,
Thankyou for your feedback & observations .
I feel one has to have a sence of humour & a sence of fun about what we are all trying to do here.
The knockers are allowed to express an opinion like anyone else , I guess, but I dont see why some get so personal & offer nothing in return . .
Maybe it`s an inverse reaction to their own low self esteem based on fear derived from past failures which they are constantly reminded of , by those close to them.
Maybe I could be dead wrong , it`s just that we dont understand them . They are not trying to be wicked , it`s just their idea of fun.


Cheers.

you are right bhagwan 2 of the 6 were odds on and i highly doubt if i would have backed them. The other 4 wernt 1 paid an amazing $4.80w $2.00p and another $3.20w. There is value there you just have to wait for it :).

This is an interesting thread, and it leads me to a question: What is a good strike rate?

If you have a 45 % strike rate in your top 2, then you will have a 70% strike rate in your top 4. The market has a 75% strike rate in it's top four, so really no-one can expect to better that, because by definition the market always has the four best chances in the race. It always has the four shortest, therefore in the long run it ipso facto has the four best chances. Time and analysis of winning percentages compared to starting percentage bears that out.

So, if the market has the best strike rate out there, then what strike rate is good?

By the way this refers to a method that comes up with a top four in a race, not a method that comes up with the odd selection. A method that comes up with the odd selection can have - and often does - a better s/r than the favourite, which is 28%, however what I am talking about is a selection method. What is a good strike rate for a selection method? I know it is also dependant on price, but given that in order to have a good strike rate in your top four you must have favoured runners in there, but you won't always pick the top four favourites, what's a good strike rate?

What are some strike rates you guys have seen, used etc, especially in mechanical selection programs, ie the computer doing the form?

If you don't have the records of top 4 strike rates, here is a table below that lists what your top 4 strike rate would be based on the strike rate of your top selection:

1st s/r top 4 s/r
10% 34%
11% 37%
12% 40%
13% 43%
14% 45%
15% 48%
16% 50%
17% 53%
18% 55%
19% 57%
20% 59%
21% 61%
22% 63%
23% 65%
24% 67%
25% 68%
26% 70%
27% 72%
28% 73%
29% 75%
30% 76%
31% 77%
32% 79%
33% 80%
34% 81%
35% 82%
36% 83%
37% 84%
38% 85%
39% 86%
40% 87%
41% 88%
42% 89%
43% 89%
44% 90%
45% 91%
46% 91%
47% 92%
48% 93%
49% 93%
50% 94%

So essentially if you get a s/r of 29% top pick winners home in a selection process then you're going to get 75% in the top 4, etc.

What do newspapers generally get? What do ratings sellers get? Automated programs? You as an individual? The old lady down the street?

Bhagwan


Drop me am email at retireme@mailup.net

I bet you knew I'd bite Duritz. :-)

I'm working on NSW races at the moment using 1994 to 2002 to work out the system. On those races (33361) I get 28.63 percent winners, 18.70 percent seconds and 13.80 percent thirds. That's on races covered by the NSW Tab and it only produces 1.87% profit if you bet on every race which has greater than half the runners having had a start before.
Using that system to predict results for 2003 to present.
9409 races, for 27.86 percent winners, 18.81% seconds and 14.17% thirds for a 0.8% loss on turnover.

That's not exactly answering your question but I don't actually keep a record of what my second, third, etc choice does. I used to but they were depressingly low compared to the first choice and were just taking up cpu time to process.

BTW Good to see you back in circulation. You've been quiet of late.

KV

Duritz


What is the basis or theory behind those figures you have produced because they don't tally with what my system has.

I have top pick 28% strike rate, top three 60%, top four 68%. Not a long way of what you predicted but then again 7% is probably substantial at the bottom end of your selections.

Simply if your top pick wins say 20% of the time then your second pick must win 20% of those remaining 80 races, which is 16, your third 20 of those remaining 64, which is effectively 13 and your 4th 20% of those remaining 10, making a total of 59. I'll post a better explanation tomorrow.

And yeah KV I thought you might.

As a general figure , if one can have a SR of approx 25% with a mix of prices ,you are doing well, this will make a profit between 1-25% depending on the prices for that month.
It`s the short end prices that will kill us in the end if we consistantly take rotten vale to chance , that`s what the Great Done was all about.

With any system or form approach , do expect the unexpected run of outs of 20-25 before the next winner gets up , so its an idea to gear ones money management & ones head space around this reality .
It may take one month or 3 years ,but it will happen , it even happened to to Lengedary Don Scott where he made a massive loss in one year but recovered in the following year using his famous Weight Ratings ,betting to his accessed price against the bookmakers price.

E.g. Stop betting if one strikes 25 outs in a row ,then recommence once one gets up.
The median figure of outs with 25% is 15 outs , this means one should strike their winner within 15 bets 80% of the time. Maybe one could have 3 banks of 15 so one can attack aggressivly within those 15 bets.
Or make your bets really low after say 12-15 outs ,if one feels they are going to miss out on something.
Or structure ones bets to recover only half of the losses after 15 outs, until that winner gets up. Then go about recovering the other half.

Cheers.

The maths behind the table I posted is as follows:

Say you're top pick has a 20% strike rate. That means in a hundred races, it wins 20. OK, so how many does the second pick win? Well, it must win 20% of those remaining races, because in those races, where the top pick is not going to win, it is effectively the top pick of the remaining field. So, it wins 20% of them, which is 16 of those 80. So, with your top pick winning 20%, your top two will win 20+16 = 36%. So, your third pick will therefore win 20% of those remaining 64 races, because neither the top nor second pick will win those, so it is effectively the top pick of the remaining field, and your top pick wins 20%. So, 20% of the remaining 64 = 12.8 (rounded 13) wins. So, your top, second and third selections combined win 20+16+13 = 49 races out of a hundred. Ipso facto your fourth pick wins 10 races, giving you a total of 59% winners in your top 4 if your top pick wins 20% of the time.

If your strike rate for your top chance compared to your s/r for your top 4 doesn't work out as the table suggests, then you must have a mic of rules which means that the more favoured market runners come out on top and the less favoured ones third or fourth, or vice versa if it's the other way.

That help?

Bhagwan,

for some reason you have not grasped what makes following tipsters a mug play. Their visibility and popularity means you will NOT get value, irrespective of the strike rate.

And I notice no one has bothered to post profit figures for tipsters to justify that strategy.

So I've just run my own test.

I examined the top 2KY pick.

Then as a control I examined runners with SP <= 3/1, but which were not in the top 3 2KY picks.


Tipped Untipped
44,203 11,007 - Runs
25.6% 25.9% - Strike Rate
91.7% 97.0% - ROT - best SP/NSW
85.7% 94.0% - ROT - NSW TAB


This should be emphatic proof that tips make far bigger losses than untipped runners with similar strike rates.

jfc, interesting yet unsuprising results because its as i suspected - the sheep are alive & well!

& while they are the "rest" of us should be lining our pockets, no?

anyone able to analyse the results for runners say under 10/1 that have NOT been tipped by a given panel of tipsters?

I got the computer to work out what my second, third, fourth selection were doing and for 2003 - present NSW I get.
1st choice 27.86% winners
2nd Choice 18.81% winners
3rd choice 13.24% winners
4th choice 9.82% winners
Your table suggests about 72.5% from the four choices Duritz which is pretty close, I make the total 69.7%

KV

Good strike rate for your top selection there KV, well done.

Article as promised
 

G'day All,
As promised earlier I have located an article from a magazine of a couple of years ago which is relevant to this topic. Unfortunately, the file is too large to attach to this post. If anybody wants a copy they can e-mail me at emerson754 at hotmail dot com and I'll send it. Let me know if you have winzip when you do.
I also have to agree with jfc re value obtainable from newspaper tipsters. Too many people follow them.
I reckon we could do better by establishing our own panel of raters for the three or four best races per weekend and follow them. Are the newspaper tipsters any better than our own forumites as a team? The ratings competition suggests our team would more than hold its own.
All the best

I may be getting off the point here but this sums up my thoughts on value. If a horse at double figure odds gets up to beat our own selection, the first thing we do is look at the form of that horse and ask ourselves why did it win and why was it as such good odds. I will guarantee it was at good odds for any one or combination of the following:

1. lots of 7 8 9 or zeros in form
2. unfashionable jockey or trainer
3. WIDE BARRIER
4. SUPPOSEDLY unsuitable distance/going/track
5. not in most favoured column of tipsters panel

The more of these factors that apply to my top rated selection the happier I am . It means A BETTER PRICE . How many top rated selection criteria actually make a profiit as a single factor? such as the top jockey or trainer, horse with the best strike rate at the distance or going or track. Not many I bet and that is because they are overbet.

The method I now use is to just use the best rating of the last three runs and price the race accordingly. no bonuses or penaltys for top jockeys good barriers or distance specialists, just the best recent run. The strikerate of my top selection probably wont be as good as those who add other factors in but the prices I get will overcome that.

Top thread fellas.
Darky I couldn't agree more with your obsevations re: the pub people.
As a for instance I loaned a book by "Hats Aitkins" ( A pretty light read I thought) and a copy of a recent PPM to a work mate of mine to read.
He gave them back to me the very next day and said they were a bit too deep for him, (but he noted some of the mentioned horses in PPM for future bets).
Now this is coming from a man who marches off to the TAB every Saturday with a couple of hundred $$$'s in his kick and by God he hasn't had a good time until it's all gone.
Just more grist for the mill I suppose.
Keep up the good work all, and a special thankyou to you Bhagwan for all your input.

Hmmm, we might have to try that one day.

Okay, I've been going through the last few months form guides looking for an angle on the tipster polls. I decided to look at ALL of the top 3 in the most favoured column of the Friday Courier Mail and then apply some strict rules that I like to use in my other systems. It did very well in the test period but I think I'm going to have to look at it some more before I could be confident that I have something to go on. I'll see if it comes up with any selections this week.

[QUOTE=DR RON]
1. lots of 7 8 9 or zeros in form
2. unfashionable jockey or trainer
3. WIDE BARRIER
4. SUPPOSEDLY unsuitable distance/going/track
5. not in most favoured column of tipsters panel

My tongue-in-cheek response to these factors is:
1. The trainer's a ********** - he/she's been running it cold
2. Both the trainer and jockey are ************
3. All the jockeys inside the winner were incompetent
4. The trainer doesn't have a clue what his horse really wants
5. The tipster's seeing-eye dog pee'd on the selections before publication

:D

cant be done anyone?

Davez,

Increasing the SP up to 10/1 on my sample reduces the return to a very ordinary 93.3%.

While my earlier 97% for "untipped" <= 3/1 runners is very seductive, I caution anyone against getting carried away with that. Results vary from State to State and days of the week. Saturdays are the worst.

However if you combine the study with the OPPOSITE of Bhagwan's latest brainstorm by considering TAB#'s > 4:

Untipped <= 3/1 & TAB# > 4

4,738 - Runs
25.8% - Strike Rate
100.3% - ROT - best SP/NSW !!!!
98.0% - ROT - NSW TAB

I don't know of too many ~5,000 run samples that can end up in the black.

Interesting results. Im sure with a couple simple filters it would be much better. Might be something to keep an eye on.

thanks jfc, & yes racingnovice it would appear a few filters and a decent staking plan could produce some interesting results, having a look at various tipping panels may also be worthwhile.

& as an after thought - <=3/1 & unitab rating of say < 95 ish? would have snagged the last 3 at cranbourne on friday

my younger days
 

Hi all,

just on the tipsters columns,

When i had my very first dable on the punt 15 years ago, i would walk to the newsagent every saturday, come back armed with the holy grail (telegrapgh form guide), make a BIG cuppa,and i mean BIG, go back to bed with said trusty felt tipped pen (couldnt afford clip board) and circle the "more favoured" in each column that were say 6/1 ish in the race. I would also listen to the fellas talking on the radio about each race and would find one in each race to put my $2 bets on. I honestly did not know what a maiden was apart from the one lying next to me complaining that i shouldnt be wasting the day drawing on the form guide, i didnt understand weights, barriers, trainers, mud,...nothing.
You may laugh but it did work, it helped me pay for my second car ! (mind you it only cost 3K and i saved all year)

True story

God health to everyone
Dingo

Not sure how these will go but should be interesting :). They are a combination of Pre post prices, tipsters top picks and unitab ratings.

ROSEHILL
R3 #3 BARBERTON
R6 #1 SEA SEARCH

SANDOWN
R5 #8 SONIC ROYAL
R7 #2 PERLIN
R8 #12 ASSAFA