Not worth it
 

I spend ages sorting out the probabilities for negative reward.
I am considering a new idea in punting,where you pick out games that could be closish and then backing the roughie.

Interested to read in todays Sun that only 52% of faves have won this year, thus far, so if you'd backed every outsider you would be in front for the year!!

That doesn't surprise me one bit. Outsiders tend to do better in the first half of the comp. Then it all settles down and the favourites do better in the second half. There have been a few surprise packets though. For example, I thought Port Adelaide and Richmond would be in opposite places on the table.

I reckon there is nearly a good thing every week in afl/nrl/super 12
its a shame the super 12 is close to finishing this year.last weekend Geelong Cats,Canterbury Crusaders and Melbourne Storm all won,but you would have been very surprised if they didnt.I know they were short odds and you would have been lucky if you collected about $1.80 on a multi,but its not really too bad is it.this week geelong have opened at $1.20 on Uni tab which is pretty good considering they are at home to the hapless kangaroos,I thought $1.08 would have been about right.
Cheers

Perhaps you should look back at previous results this year and find a common denominator with your winning tips. Or more importantly a common denominator with your losing tips.

Rabbitz, I had a look at the results of some of the best expert tipsters last week. These were the best success rates I saw:

S12 77%
AFL 71%
NRL 62%

Must admit there could have been a few S12 or NRL tipsters with better strike rates than I found, but unlike AFL tipsters, they were difficult to find on the net.

Lobbing multis like that is harder than it looks. I had one going in the preseason comp and then Canterbury gets rolled!!
Also, I think the Cats will win but the Roos have a great record at Kardinia Park.

MO, i went with me gut last week, thought there were 4 laydown certs,HAWTHORN,W/BULLDOGS,W/COAST and SWANS, the others were a worry[couldnt back the tigers @ $1.20 with monopoly money]maybe you should trust your instincts rather than anything else,might save you a few grey hairs [if you have any], it only took me 2 minutes last week,i looked at the teams and picked,pity last week, for the 1st time this year i decided not to have a bet for a while [ ************ ************ ************] and i picked a few winners, i'm sure you come through mate.

cheers

But maybe that's WHY you picked the winners Goldmember. Amazing how obvious the winners seem when no money's going on.

Yep sportz i knew that would happen, but i was getting a sore head from banging it against the wall , all i had was a small allup,roosters and w/tigers try @ $4.37, see, soon as i bombed out of the comp i get a winner up.

Will this Win?
St Kilda $1.27
West Coast $1.20
Geelong $1.20
S12 Crusaders $1.23
All up $2.23
I reckon

Yes Sportznut.
I just continue doing the same old same old.
But you know what tends to happen when you change.
That's right!.I knew I should have stuck it out one more week.
I think it's just one of those years.
At least I didn't jump in too early on Juddy!

You took the words right out of my mouth,Sportznut.
I was about to comment the same thing.
Sort of ,well if I'm wrong,no damage done.
But if you have your life on the line,well,you want to put in a bit of effort.
Maybe the stress causes the gut feeling not to work well.

Anyway,back to what I said early at the start.
I found only one game that I consider as being difficult and that is the Port/Bombers game.
And I'm sure the Bombers will be the underdogs,so I'm having a hundred on them at the straight out price.

By the way Sportznut,have you been playing the home underdog system this year.Has it been profitable?

Yes I have, and it has.

I must admit that I've had to have a rethink with the S12 and NRL, but it's going great guns on AFL and that's where I've been concentrating.

Here's how it's gone so far:

R1 Bris (+2.5) v St K WON
R1 Adel (+10.5) v WCst LOST
R2 Kang (+13.5) v Syd WON
R4 Hawt (+25.5) v Bris WON
R4 Rich (+11.5) v Frem WON
R5 WBul (+13.5) v Adel WON
R5 Bris (+5.5) v WCst LOST
R6 Ess (+7.5) v Bris LOST
R6 Rich (+15.5) v Port WON
R7 Hawt (+27.5) v WCst WON
R8 Ess (+11.5) v Frem WON

You know by now that I won't bet on Brisbane, so I've actually had 9 bets for 7 wins and 2 losses. Could have been 8 from 9 because Adelaide only missed out by 1/2 point and you know about that because you had them too. By the way, I also had small bets on each of those 9 teams to win outright and got 6 collects.

Maybe then there is merit in my idea of backing Essendon for this round.I took the $3.15
But then again,that's me.Others would not think of this game as being a close call.
Obviously teams seem to suffer some sort of overwhelming burden when they are expected to win.
One thing for sure,your homedog system don't take long to make a selection!

Hang on, Essendon aren't playing at home. Or is it the longshot factor you're going for. I personally wouldn't back them because their record at AAMI isn't good. That's not to say they can't win, but I won't be betting on them. Good luck if you do.

Mo, The blues are the value play this week. I read your comment in the other thread, but take these factors into account. Neitz, Miller and now Rivers are out. Those three respectively play ff, chf and chb.. Most of there spine out.

Also, Fevola was great last week and I really think they will match the demons in the middle.

And if you think emotion isnt one of the most critical components for big games look what the Dons did last week for Sheedy's jubilee match against a full strength Dockers team.

By the way Mo, not very confident at all with the Homedog system this week. Collingwood against West Coast??? They're going to need a big start! Perhaps I might halve my regular bet. :o

I'll also probably back Carlton with the start. Although not technically a selection for my system, Optus Oval this week is a DEFINITE home ground advantage.

Sportz, I reckon WCE 1-39 is a great bet this round. I reckon they are just floating a bit at the moment. I cant see 'em smashing the Pies but they should have enough class to still win.

I hope you're right. The lines aren't up just yet, but I'm thinking Collingwood will get around 39.5 start.

Perhaps you should stick with just one method and actually see it through to either boom or bust. Chopping and changing from one sport to another and one method to another is a one way ticket to the poor house.

I could be wrong but I reckon you will only get around 26-28 points start.

Just had a look at my bookie Pies +30.

Ooops sorry, my mistake. I actually meant 29.5 points. I'd really prefer 39.5 though.

No Sportz.I'm not saying they qualify under the homedog system,but they qualify under the "how the effin' 'ell did they win system"
No logical reason why the homedog system should work,yet it does!

Hang on Mugs!
I'm sure it was you who suggested that emotion was overrated.
Apologies if it weren't you.
Regardless,your money would be much safer in the bank than on Carlton.Cameron Bruce is back.

Thanks for your input Macca.
You being a newbie wouldn't realize that I only bet AFL and have been doing so for almost 15 years.
There is something else sinister happening that is destroying my methods!

What Moeee what,Im all aquiver.

Well if I knew I wouldn't be concerned,but whatever it is,it seems to be affecting you and Chuck as well.
My only thoughts at the minute have links with the hole in the ozone layer and the missing Weapons of Mass Destruction!

Granted, Mo, that was I. But, there are always exceptions to the rule!!
Plus, I dont think the Dees are that good.

Sorry Mo, but I think there actually IS a logical reason why it works.

I personally think sticking to teams with a genuine home ground advantage is a damn good idea. Also, I NEVER back teams giving up a start but I do like to back teams receiving a start. Well, the homedog system is a combination of those two ideas. Admittedly though, you do sometimes have to back teams that you don't honestly think can win. This week for example, I think Collingwood will really struggle to stay within 30 points. :o

If you don't mind, can I just say that I think backing teams playing interstate hurt you last week. I noticed in your selections, you had Fremantle against Essendon in Melbourne and Port against Sydney in Sydney. Now I personally wouldn't have even thought of backing those two teams. I almost never back teams playing interstate, except in matches involving Brisbane, but you know I have different rules where my own team is concerned.

I hope you don't think I'm lecturing you because I don't claim to be any expert or anything. Just trying to help. That's why I suggested perhaps you should go back over your selections and try to look for a common denominator amongst the losing bets. Perhaps if you had cut out teams playing interstate, you might have done better. Or there might be something else you discover which will help you cut out losers in future.

Thanks for the input Sportz.
Problem with what I'm doing is there ain't enough bets.
If I eliminate those you suggested,I may well improve my profit margin,but at the expense of maybe a bet a month.
I think I'm more into quantity rather than quality.

Just found out my only collect was Round 2 where I had Fremantle away and Adelaide Away.(Depressed head here).

Your only collect of the whole season???

I concentrate largely on home teams and I don't back any team under $1.40 or any team giving up a start. Given all that I still usually find at least 3 teams to bet on in AFL each week.

Are you taking multis? Perhaps you should go more for single bets???

Yes only Multi's for me Sportz.
I did actually collect in Round 3 as well with Adelaide in the Derby into the Bombers.
I have a formula as you know,for just about everything,and it tells me which game or combination of games is the best value.
Obviously my formula is being fed erroneous data!

I prefer to get far more regular but obviously smaller returns.

Yes I've noticed your tips in the footy comp.
But even the short ones go down.
This seems to be an amazing year,and also it seems similar in the Super 12's I believe.
Wish I knew what factor it was that said Fremantle would beat the Pies by that ridiculous margin!

The bets I've been making in the punting comp bare no resemblance to the bets I've actually been making with real money.

Don't ask. It's a superstition thing. :o

So will you be backing West Coast this week?

Nope.

Collingwood (+29.5) is the system selection so that's what I will back. The fact that I'm not at all confident about their chances makes no difference. I'm in profit this year on AFL largely thanks to this system, so why go against it for this one game.