How long til LJ gets the wobbles?

Surely a matter of time.

Now, I have nothing against a horse with a great turn of foot, I just think at her next start she will for sure be odds on and you will get a very good price on whatever you select to beat her!

You'll have a bit of a wait EI.
LJ has been put away until the summer Magic Millions race - missing the spring carnival.
This horse could by the end of January 2003 have over $2 million in prizemoney without racing against any of the top horses of her age. Very well placed.

I hope you're not bagging this horse - you can do no more than win against what's put up against you.

I can't think of many Qld horses having much success in Melb in recent times - Amalfi comes to mind, but not much else.

Not bagging - simply stating the facts.
I'd like to own her.
But I can't agree with the people who are calling her the best 2YO in Aus when she hasn't raced in any of the southern state G1's. Blur, Sir Breakfast, Top Echelon and Chickens are not blue ribbon scalps.
All I am saying is that the way racing in Aus is these days you can rack up millions without taking on the cream ... shrewd placement by Throsby and good luck to them.

The point of my post was in no way to bag the credentials of Lovely Jubly, as you say, you can do no more than win, however, my point was every horse is beatable and I wouldn't accept less than even money about LJ.
If she goes around ODDS ON then there may be better value around...coz sure as the sun sets - the bubble will burst.

(Even Sunline can be beaten).

E.I.

How can you possibly suggest that in her next start, Lovely Jubly will:
(a) be at ODDS-ON?
(b) be NO VALUE?

Surely, you would need to be fully aware of the depth and class of the specific opposition before you could make such a claim? Do you have a crystal ball? :smile:

She is still an immature filly, dong things wrong in her races, and overcoming her own green ways to still win. I'd rate her as the sort who will be improving over time rather than as having peaked already.

BigOrange...

The post was about betting value, not the quality of the horse.


[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-11 16:27 ]

While i totally agree that you can only beat what your put up against, i think it's a bit rich calling this horse the best 2yo in Australia (as the trainer stated) when she has'nt actually raced the best 2yo's in Australia. She could very well be, but i think we should reserve our judgement until that happens.

Just because a horse is odds-on doesn't mean its no value??????????

If a horse has an est. 90% chance of winning, a $1.60 win div is "good value".
60% return vs small chance of losing.

I have backed horses paying $1.20 a win - they were value cause the opposition was many lengths inferior - easy money.

A horse at 20/1 is "no value" if it has no hope in hell of winning. Some 20/1 horses fit into that category.

Agree with Big Orange - if LJ is racing against ordinary horses then odds-on may be value. If its racing against some handy horses then odds-on may well be poor value.

It all depends on the opposition.

Was Kingston Town bad value when he won about 16 races in a row at odds-on - when clearly he was almost certain to win.

Backing horses because they are more than 10/1 is poor value, unless they have a real chance of winning.

It may be a good idea to back horses above $4 most of the time, however there are times when a short priced horse is good value.

You're wrong on this one dude.

If there is a $10 note lying on the footpath - do you walk past it because its "bad value" compared to a $100 note?

I backed Sir Breakfast on Monday cause the place div was better than LJ's win div.

However, if I considered LJ a 90% chance of winning and it was paying $1.60 a win vs a place div of $1.40 for another horse given an 80% chance of placing - I'd back LJ everytime.

"Odds On - Look On"

:razz:

It's all about risk/reward ratio.

The $10 note analogy has no relevance as there is no risk involved.

You say about horses having a 90% chance of winning and being almost certainties....not true. All horses can be beaten. True odds of any horse is much worse than 90%, that is why the odds will get you in the end when your HOT POT loses 2 races you have lost any profit gained.

Just think...you back a horse at odds of 1/20 one loss and you must win 5 races at level stakes just to recoup losses.



[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-11 19:42 ]

Having been a big fan of Lovely Jubly openly on this forum, I have to make a comment on this. I agree with you both!

I agree with Equine Investor that Lovely Jubly will probably go around odds on next start, no matter what, and I agree with chief that I would probably still back it.

When I see Lovely Jubly, one word comes to mind for me. Exacta.

I guess I'm still waiting for the sting because in the past I have backed horses because I thought they would win and not because they were value. It probably makes me a proverbial "form" student. Looking back through my wagers/investments/bets/gambles (did we decide on one yet?) I would have to say I could have come undone a number of times if the HOT POT lost (by gee Sunline shows up a lot!).

I guess it comes down to personal preference. I'd much rather back a short priced winner than a long priced loser, but I will rarely strike a 20/1 or longer collect either. In my "10% bank" they come up, but it's not the serious money.

What am I missing out on?

Placegetter


_________________
Pick it to win, back it to place.

[ This Message was edited by: Placegetter on 2002-06-11 20:15 ]

EI,
I think you would need to back 20 winners @ 1/20 to recoup one loss .... unless you're betting with R Waterhouse I suppose.

:lol:

Equine Investor polishes his crystal ball and looks for more potential bad value bets.

First up over a low class field, under extreme pressure to run into third place at odds of $1.80 carrying 59.5 Kg.

No value as predicted.

:wink:

Yea I only rated her around the $5 mark yesterday.

Surely "they" were kidding with the price they sent her out at today!!!

VicTAB $1.60 and $1.20

She might have been good, but she isn't any Northerly, Lonhro, or Sunline.

The word is that John Singleton sold out of her because she had "problems" and aslo changed trainers.

That should be an indication to any astute punter that she's not quite right.

I wouldn't take less than 4/1 about her until she wins in convincing style again.