y stop
 

xtra ordinary day ar1/2 qr6/10 sr7/9 sometimes stopping at first win really bites

Hi!
That's why you have to know your average strike rate and also your strike rate on any track you usually bet.
That way you can follow the trend, and if your system, or your form selections are consistent you can even vary your bets accordingly. Ie. let's say you know your ave. strikerate is 20% and you are way above, then it is likely, mind you only LIKELY that your winning streak is not going to last long. But of course you must have had enough races and bets in your records to make it meaningful.
I personally stop when ahead, but I do bet a reasonable amount, so ahead means a couple hundred.
Cheers.

I personally stop when ahead, but I do bet a reasonable amount, so ahead means a couple hundred. :rolleyes:

SMART

I never stop when I'm ahead and have NEVER regretted it. I always play level stakes and I know I will be having (on average over many years) 15-30 bets per Saturday (M,S,B,A,) . I only play Longshots ($20 or longer). This means a minimum,say, $300(15x$20) to a max $600(15x$20) risked per afternoon. If on the first bet you get a $21 winner and are immediately $400 up you could go home happy or you can STICK TO YOUR SELECTION METHODS. The next 14 to 29 horses dont know you've had a winner (and decided "enough is enough,we're not going to win any more for this guy"!!) so why would'nt you back them as planned?? At this point you might lose $280(the next 14 bets) of your $400 (still $120 ahead) or even lose $580 (29 more unsuccessful bets) and be $180 down on the day or ......... hit JETWAY in the 7th at Adelaide yesterday and catapult another $660 ahead (ie $20x $46-$20x13 more bets). Of course I still placed my last 2 planned bets (despite cracking tha "Grand") as the afternoon is NEVER over til it's over!!!
This reasoning goes even more so for shorties as stopping with a 2-1 or 4-1 winner when you are barely ahead means a great chance of giving that "puny edge" back next time. Plus: on any system or selection method or staking system or whatever that I've ever seen ,the profits come in clusters (ie several average or disappointing days followed by A BIG ONE ) This is the same with almost everything in life. That's the origin of the expression"Good things come in threes". Maybe they come in twos or fours but they DO come in irregular doses. What folly it is to be a the start of such a day and not to hang on to get them all. Cheers , and good luck.

Each to his own I suppose!
But if you get your winners in a clump it should ring a bell! Why is it so?
If your selection method is sound, your strikerate will not vary more then 5% up or down in any reasonable period of betting.
If it does, it means your method works far better on certain types of races or tracks then on others, which should be a great help to you by eliminating the loosing types.
Of course It means a lot of statistical work (boring work at that).
It does not strictly apply to your kind of betting but even there I am sure you could find a reason why a longshot comes in ahead ot the more fancied horses, true sometimes it's just luck but more often then not there is a reason for it.
Good luck to you.
Cheers

Hi Marcus! I dont mean a "cluster" of similar races or one age group of horses etc. I mean that the wins (I dont bet place) ,especially the big ones, are not as predictable as clockwork. Some days you have half a dozen longshots come second or third by a nose or half head due to the most miniscule variation in "the running".You are so close to the boilover that you start thinking "What about 10 bucks the place as well" even though you know that's a long term mistake. These losers could've been winners if the slightest touch/bump (unseen) hadn't happened or if one ( also unseen) blade of grass didnt fly for a split second into YOUR nags eye. Or if the jockey had've tapped it's rump a quarter second earlier (or later) etc etc.How to know?
But some days everything falls into place.Every photo goes your way;the bet you couldnt get on in time is a hopeless loser (saved another $20****:your 2nd placer gets up because 3rd protests against the winner; the rank outsider you're on goes 10 lengths ahead and a fall holds up the field. You name it!! Sure, I would LIKE to examine my records until every variable was under control ,or be certain my methods worked better on Group races than others etc,but you are right that that's too boring. Anyway.Marcus I still didnt notice if you were advocating stopping betting when ahead or not,which is what this threads about. Let us know and good luck.

Hi!
As I said before, "Each to his own"
But did you consider the following:
Your first bet wins, pays $20.00 if you stop, your profit on turnover is 1900% (380 being the return (400-20))
If you put on 10 more bets and get an other $20 winner your POT is reduced to 345.45%
If you put in 30 bets for one winner of $50 then your POT is only 66.66%
Which would you prefer? Considering the risk as well!

I said in my first post that I do stop when I'm ahead but I am usually ahead by hundreds because of the size of my bets.
Good luck.

punter57,
As marcus said everyone to his own, but I think a lot is to do with your own circumstances, whether you bet everyday or once a week. If you are a once a week punter then I reckon keep going, if you are an everyday punter I can see no problem with stopping at a decent profit.
I had 1 bet today Ballina R1 Urgent Sea and got $6.9 place, that's a huge result for me, so why go any further, and risk losing what I had gained, I am in it for the $$$ and not the pleasure.
Just a matter of interest We see a lot of ideas on this forum and posters ask anyone with a data base to run it for them. The usual result is that the idea shows a loss, I JUST wonder on some the ideas whether if the data base people could run the particular method race to race across each state as they run whether the idea would show a DAILY PROFIT if one stopped when ahead.
Just food for thought.

Cheers

Of course everything can come in clusters. If you have a strike rate of 20% it doesn't mean that in every 5 race block you will have 1 winner.
Personally I believe in keeping on going. I believe I have an edge so why stop. All I would be doing is losing money by stopping. The way I bet is not a day to day thing, it is a continuous series of bets, so some days I will expect to lose money.
The reason I bet, is because I want to make enough money to not have to work. It is because I believe that I can. My objective is to make as much money as possible. Why settle. I do not care about having a high POT. As long as I am returning more than I am risking, then that is all I can hope for. My aim is to return 105-110% on my outlay, so the more I outlay the more I make, the more races I bet on, the more I outlay.
I believe in what I am doing so there is no need to stop.
I would suggest that people who do stop if they reach a certain profit for the day, are really not that confident in their ideas over the long term. What are they scared of? Losing their profit for the day?
I understand that spending all day betting is not an ideal lifestyle, but would people be confident of winning long term if they bet for a certain period of time each day regardless of your profit or loss?

Does that mean that you are never going to have another bet?
I suggest that you will. And when that time comes what money are you going to bet with?
I presume the answer is your profits from Urgent Sea.
Whether it is the following race, the following day or 3 months from now, when you have another bet, you will risk losing what you have gained.
Why stop?

Hi!
I can only reiterate, " Each to his own method"
Never criticised anyone never will.
Good luck to you.
Cheers.

BJ
I don't care how good you are, what ever method you use my feeling is if you continue betting all day UNLESS you have an edge of which less than 1% of punters have on a long term basis then you are going to come out a loser.
I am a firm believer in the law of averages and the law of averages tells me that what I do will put me ahead by 1 to 1.5 points ahead every day at some stage.
My usual bet is $400 sometimes smaller depending on the fixed odds or the size of the pool on the tabs. If I could have got fixed odds of $5 on my bet today I would have bet the $400 but compared to tab prices the fixed price was dismal so the bet was smaller because of pool size.
As mentioned before, everyone to his own thing but just work out $400 bet with a profit daily of 1 to 1.5 points over a month with very few losing days.
Seriously I am in this for the money and nothing else, I don't care if the horse is a champion or a maiden, I don't care if the jockey is in the top 5 or an apprentice having his first ride, as long as my selection runs a hole I am happy.

All the best.

My point is: What is the difference between continuing on that day or another day? At some stage you will risk the money you gained. If you don't have an edge then you cannot guarantee being in front at some stage of the day.
If you are in it for the money and have an edge, surely you can see the value in betting as much as possible.

BJ,
Sorry can't agree.
I admit I have followed some days through and I would have made a motza.
Other days I have followed through and I would have lost a lot more than a motza, after being over my profit up.
If you have that enviable pot of 10% or more on a consistant basis over a very long period on WIN bets I agree, then I would continue regardless, and the sky is the limit.
The problem with what I do on the place is very limited because of divi's and the size of place pools, but it is very consistant.
The other thing is I HATE losing and when I read on this forum of people talking of 15 or 20 outs it scares the hell out of me, and that is why I have a safety break of losses on a day.
It gets back to my theory of law of averages when I'm having a bad one, knock off because it isn't my day.
I posted a while ago that I had a couple of bad weeks, and couldn't give a reason why except that I thought that just my head was going in a spin, knocked off for a few days, and came good again.
What I do is tedious, and believe me is no fun, but is ery rewarding.

Cheers

I also believe in the law of averages, but did not know that it had any time factors associated with it. I had a good day today so the chances are that next time will be a bad day to 'average' things out. If that is the case then why bet next time if you presume it will be a bad day. If I take 1 day off, will that be the bad day, or will it wait until the next time I choose to bet?

There is no mathematical reason to stop. Each new race is a new event, and nothing from the past will change that. Yes things will probably average out, but there is nothing to suggest it will happen straight away.

At the end of the day, as long as you are comfortable with what you are doing, then who am I to argue. Good luck and I hope it keeps working for you.