AFL Round 11 early thoughts
 

Another tough round coming up by looks of things.

The four good value bets imo would be

Kangaroos @ 2.40 vs Melbourne

Richmond @ 2.90 vs West Coast

Western Bulldogs @ 2.00 vs Hawthorn

Port Power @ 3.00 vs St Kilda

They all look over the odds, kangaroos coming off a win over brisbane up there, seem to hold on to form when they get it. West Coast struggle in Melbourne and Terry Wallace is probably as good a tactician in league and might be able to shut them down ( remember what he did with bulldogs & essendon in 2000 ) , Hawthorn has been up for a while and might be tapering off a bit like young teams do from time to time, while the Power convincingly beat the saints in Launceston when the saints ( and port !! ) were playing much better . Think Power at $ 3 are well over the odds.

Would think all 4 mentioned would be worth a small nibble, even better if you bet in run as you may well be able to lay off for profit in all games.

Good luck for weekend !!!

Talking a fair bit of sense I'd say. Thats the sort of commentary im after in this forum. Well Done Discipline Pays.

But do you think he's right MP?

Port have won 3 from 3 on this ground (2 against Saints), all by 40 points +, but they'd have to improve a heck of a lot!!!

Not neccesarily, I wouldnt back the Power against the Saints but at $3+ I could see why some punters would.
Im after thought provoking discussion in these forums. Last week, good logic stopped me from dropping a grand because many thought the Lions were susceptible.
The Bulldog scenario discipline pays suggests makes perfect sense to me. As the outsider in that clash I feel they are great value

Glad to help. :D

Bravo mug punta. Someone else agrees with me that this forum should be about informative discussion and not just "tipping comps".

The St Kilda / Port clash is an interesting one. St Kilda are struggling because of injuries and Port seem to have lost the hunger? Don't know why but it appears they have.
Saints deserve to be slight favourites but I agree that Port at $3.00+ is very tempting.
On the Lions front, I hear around the traps down at Coorparoo in Brisbane that there are four senior players very close to getting the chop. Strong rumours suggest Leppitch, Pike and the Scott brothers. In my opinion Leppitch has been playing poorly for more than 12 months now and question marks have really got to be asked of the champ as well. I know he has been a fantastic player but injuries are making Vossy look very pedestrian. I can see why he quickly signed a new deal.

Roos/Demons is a hard one to pick for me, when its a tight game which team toughs it out better, can somone help out ,is it the Roos, Melb are not one of my sides but i noticed that the favourite has won the last 7 clashes between the two of them, do they read the form guide ?. ROOS,DEMONS,ROOS,DEMONS,DEMONS,ROOS,DEMONS,so if the bookies are right Demons to win, i have changed my mind twice already.

I think the best bets this week are Geelong, Swans and Fremantle.

Port will win.

Go big on them.

They are FIRED up.

And who do you think they should be replaced by Mr."Act without thinking?"

So you get even money a winner with 3 losers.Sounds like a losing system to me.
Why not just back the Bulldogs and make a 100% PROFIT and stay out of the other games?

Listen to me Goldie,and put the Demons in your tips.
Have I ever let you down?
Not that I'll go overboard on them,but they WILL win.

And you can keep the hundred bucks I saved you on the Sydney Swans,my good man.

Bit grumpy Mo. You need to get one away.
The main point is that I want justification for tips and that gets me thinking more and hopefully helps produce winners.
I dont think it needs to get nasty as it often did with RS but he usually had justification for his selections which was good.
No offense to Benny, but, just putting up tips without any reasoning is a waste of space as far as im concerned.
Last year you did this a lot more Mo and I think it helped you back a lot more winners.

Just for the record I dont mind the Roos as a roughie also and I rate the bombers a chance in Adelaide. If the crows kick under 10 goals we will win

Thanks mo, but its a little late as i put my tips in not long ago and if i go and change them now, we all now what happens .....