Is it True the Fav has never lost on Betfair?
 

For political betting? Scottish referendum NO vote is at 1.22.

I've been told the favourite has never lost since Betfair started.

I assume your talking about political betting markets only ?

Technically the fav in Scottish Referendum betting has never lost (never won either).

Yeah political betting markets.

Should have worded it as that with the shortest odds. So in this case, 1.22 for the NO vote. Any truth to this Betfair thing?

Apparently so Pat.
Since I read that comment there have been several "too close to call" elections where the winner was always the short fav on BF, including here in Australia.

Interesting.. might put an investment down. Some guy put 800,000 pounds down on NO apparently.

If thie running that good then you could easily use some sort of recovery should an outsider get up.

But, just out of curiosity, how many political events are there in a one year period that Betfair bet on?

Technically correct.
Reason is that it is popular opinion which decides the outcome.
The voters are going one way, and the bettors are going to vote that way.
It's like a mini Morgan Gallop Poll.

However, one has to be careful when one wagers, as one bad rumour, promise, debate, news article can sway the betting.

Last minute, get all over it.

on friday morning its 1.06 on BF.
down from as high as 1.7

News report this morning suggests there may be only a 5% margin to the NO vote, wouldnt be real excited at the moment if that bet were mine

News reports love "news" - so a forecast close vote is news and thus eyeballs.

Just as politicians love to create fear - ( which gives them power to propose things that they normally couldn't get away with) the media loves to create uncertainty ( which gives them viewers who normally wouldn't be interested)

hey we are even talking about it.



based on the betting it should be pretty clear cut