The Benefit of odds movement.
 

Thought I might put together a small article on the hidden gems of odds movement and how it relates to value.

next post....

I am eagerly waiting for it.

I think you and I use very similar mindsets and strategies.

ugh, I just penned an hour long page and lost it by hitting the wrong button, oh the joys of progress :(

Well I won't go through the whole thing again, suffice to say in a nutshell....

Lay early for a fixed liability, wait for the team or player to drift or firm in the market and then back it just before the event.
You will look red on one side and green on the other.
The advantage is in the drift.
Over time, these drifts get out of hand as the market jumps all over the firming selection.

I got the data for soccer and took the odds at a certain time before kickoff, then did the trades just before the game. The longterm result was a massive profit.
Did the same on AFL, NRL, Tennis and Cricket.

Same method, same result.

I'd strongly suggest getting the data and running the simulations, it's mind blowing!

* I've been using this method on horseracing for the past two years successfully, however, australian markets have no liquidity early which sent me looking at sports in addition to UK markets.

CP this may be a stupid question but what about if the side you lay is the side that shortens?

This might sound like a dumb question CP, as I've got no experience with trading, but:
Don't you Lay low, Back high? It's just you say wait for it to drift or firm. If it firms, isn't that bad?

You use the term 'get the data', is that a feed into special trading software?

Maybe you can recommend a tutorial?

I need to start looking for new pursuits as I don't fancy being a Backer in the oncoming regime.
Cheers

No question is ever stupid, there are only stupid answers.

You still back it back and lock in the loss.
The number of times the market gets it wrong, compensates more than enough for those losses. Think of it as a strategy rather than this particular transaction.

We are backing and laying the movement not the actual team or the odds.

Get the historical data from betfair it's timestamped for sports, but gives first taken /last taken times for each odds increment.

Just pick a time before the event note the odds and then look at the last traded price before the event went inplay.

You get a pretty clear picture of movement and why it's profitable.

Basically what CP is saying is


At X mins to the start of a match or race you would try to lay a horse/team at the lower odds. ie if it shows $4.00 - $4.40 you try and lay at $4.00.

At 0mins to start you just trade out your position regardless of if the horse has increased to $5.00 or dropped to $2.00.

there are enough times where you get the movement go your way to disregard the times it doesn't.

The other thing I would suggest looking at it backing the teams/horses which firmed as you have a solid indication this is a good selciton that could win. ie trade out your loss and then throw a little bit extra on it in case it dos win which it usually will.

Keep in mind on AUS racing you are faced with the turnover tax. So stick to o/s racing and sports.

Cheers CP. I have read books on the subject, mostly USA, and even opened a myriad of betting accounts with offshore bookies a couple of years ago. BUT the more I researched the subject, I came away with the opinion that the smarties have it all sewn up on the odds and you'd be lucky to break even.

Fast forward to today, and you could say the same thing about AUS horse punting, but after a year of 12 hours a day research, loss and learning from my mistakes, I finally can make a consistent profit. So I'll just have to start on a new pathway.

Thanks for starting the thread.