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-   -   Another System (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=28116)

darkydog2002 20th March 2014 10:26 AM

Another System
 
Not sure where I got this one from.

Highest Av Prizemoney

Last Run Won or Ran Within 3 Lengths of Winner

Won At Course AND Distance

Ist 4 Favs (Doesnt say whether OPENING Fav or at the Jump)

I,d assume OPENING as any mug at the TAB can back a horse into Favoritism
i.e "Follow the money etc

A lot of these systems leave important information out.
i.e Horse might be a backmarker and the race is 1000 M.
In a case like that you,d make a fortune Laying it .

evajb001 20th March 2014 03:21 PM

Based on the hard rules:

29.39% SR (Approx 15,000 selections)
-14.65% LOT

I probably wouldn't proceed any further with trying to refine it, a system I was testing today was 20,000 selections for a -6% LOT and still took some fiddling and additional filters before getting it in reasonable profit at 4,000 selections.

evajb001 20th March 2014 03:49 PM

Doing some quick fiddling this gives a better result:

15.15% SR (13,000 selection)
-3.80% LOT

2nd to 4th on the turn last start
Won or less than 2.0 lengths from winner last start
Ranked 3rd to 7th on profit won last 3 starts
Career Winning Percentage greater than 15%
Age 4 to 7y.o
Metro Only
Closing Price $0 to $30

Note if you add in that the last start was within 10 days you get:

17.77% SR (2,220 selections)
11.12% POT (+247.7 Units)

Thats just with some quick fiddling and a database. Personally I think anything that has the highest prizemoney rank, win% rank, API rank or anything of that kind is pretty hard to turn a profit on. You'll hit a high % of winners but you'll drain your bank over time unless someone else can prove otherwise. I think if you look outside of these area's, while the win % is lower and you have to have the balls to trust your system in the run of outs, they will typically give you a better chance of making a dollar.

All my opinion but hopefully the above shows how easy and quick it can be to look even slightly outside the square and come up with a profitable angle.

darkydog2002 20th March 2014 04:19 PM

Thank You.
I remember the Author now.
Neil.

Cheers
darky


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