Looking for Value
 

Not being a Maths guru I hope some of you can give me a hand. I hope some others can see something in my fuzzy logic and help to clarify my thinking.

The fact that on this site we only have five minutes to edit does complicate things a bit, especially when one does not know what they really want to say.

( Does that make sense ? )

Ok. He's my thoughts. None of my starting points might be logical, but you have to start somehere, it's ok to point out the negatives but please the rubbishing out of it because that helps nobody and certainly makes other newbies reluctant to join in. Sometimes, you need new blood, just to relook at things from a different perspective.

My line of thinking at the moment.

1. To win over a period, I have to find a value horse to repay my losses.

2. The take from the TABS is 15%, but they also round down, so Maybe that might take an extra 2or 3%. I do not know, others might. So. if the real take out is 18% then we only have an available pool of 82%

To make things easier, and adding in a required P.O.T of about 3 to 5 % means that we are dealing with a pool of about 75 % to get our returns. ( ? )

3. So, taking one step at a time. What are the minimum odds needed to break even with a 25 deduction.

4. Having got this ( magic figure ) maybe, then taking our SR into consideration, we can work out, where we should be looking and where to avoid.

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Make sense? probably not. When I reread this later I will probably say, " what was I thinking. "

Star

ps.

I have to hit the send button quickly before I re read and cancel the whole post.

Hi Star. I'm not sure about the math but as far as making a post or thread here I don't think it times out when making it (you only have 5 minutes to edit it) but if that IS the case then can I make a couple of suggestions for anyone (including newbies):

Either copy what you've written so far after a period (and keep copying) OR write it up in word or whatever and just paste it in here when you're happy with what you've written.

Good luck in your endeavors.

Hi Star,

A good place to start when trying to secure value is to look at the favourite and ask:
1/ Has it won at the distance and if not is it bred to run this distance?
2/ Does it like today's track conditions - Good, dead, slow etc
3/ Is it trained by a quality trainer with a decent Jock on top.
4/ Win strike >20%

If the answer is no to at least 3 from 4 of the points then it's worth looking at the remaining horses in the race.

If the answer is YES, to these questions, then you have to calculate a minimum acceptable price. If this is too daunting there are many services that frame markets for you at a cost.

I hope this is of some help to you, I'm not sure about your maths in your initial post, however look at it as you have to be 30% better than your opposition punters to make a profit.

The Schmile

Hi Star, sounds logical to me - 'value', 'overs', call it whatever you like.

The odds bracket approx $7 to $16 is where I find best value, & where you may like to start looking.

There's no minimum odds as it will depend on the eventual starting price of your selection. Using your figures you need to get a price that is 25% better than the eventual starting price. Good luck with that ;)

eg. Horse starts at 2 therefore you need to secure 2.5.
Horse starts at 5 therefore you need to secure 6.25.

Star,
Perhaps look at it from a different angle.
You are concentrating on the takeout factor a little too hard in my opinion.
In 100% markets there may be no value, in 140% markets there may still be good value.

Here is an example, and I'm not skiting because to me it stood out like the proverbial.
I've done very well in reality show markets over the years.
I don't know why, but I think I have a knack of reading talent and what makes people popular.
A person has to resonate with the voters, be somewhat of an underdog or hard luck story, but also have an edge. The voters are generally teen girls.
They don't vote for the pretty skinny girl, they vote for someone they can relate to.

To the point, I pegged Karise Eden on The Voice as a winner after her very first audition. She had all the factors plus the talent and an extra "quirkyness".
I took early $4.00 on Betfair and I believe the final price was $1.30 or a bit better. The market percentage when I took $4.00 was 128%.

There were also quite a few very short odds such as Rachel Leachar and Sarah De Bono, which I laid.

For what it's worth, I had overlooked Darren Percival and am still scratching my head as to how he could possibly have come second. It makes no sense when you look at past reality history. Was it the Keith Urban factor?

However, I rated Karise Eden an even money shot early and odds on after a few performances, so got huge overs on her in 128% market.

It is possible.

I rated them in this order:
1. Karise Eden
2. Sarah De Bono
3. Rachel Leachar
4. A long last Darren Percival after he murdered the Stevie Wonder song.

So basically look for horses that can sing a good stevie wonder song?.
. and there is value??

:D :D :D

:D Bingo!

To take the analogy one step further...

Say the top jockey with the top trainer, on the top horse, is most likely to get the vote.
Therein lies early value, but later value lies within a good horse, average trainer, decent jockey.
So 120% market might still be value, if the punters are going to plunge on the favourite.