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-   -   Could you do this professionally ? My experiment (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=31710)

UselessBettor 27th December 2017 06:20 PM

Could you do this professionally ? My experiment
Well I decided it is a almost a new year and its time to really understand could this be done as a profession.

What I am interested in is whether I could add my own selections to my automated selections and make enough to replace a job. I won't include my automated winnings as I am already getting these whether I go to a job or not.

I have been running this experiment for a few days already and will run it till the 8th January (which is about 2 weeks). I am using this time as I am not working over the holiday period. While I realise 2 weeks is not enough to get all the ins and outs of doing it professionally it is about setting up a routine and seeing what work really is involved. Basically is it worth it.

So the goal of this little experiment is to make $2000 a week minimum. Its a nice round figure and a figure I would be happy with as a starting point.

I won't reveal my selections or my selection criteria. But I'll reveal my emotions, thoughts and issues I run into through out the process.

So here are the results so far :

Day 1: $3070 Loss
Day 2: $790 Profit
Day 3: 0 (Christmas)
Day 4: $1660 Profit

Lessons learnt already:

1. Pay attention. A lack of attention resulted in my first day being a loss. I was tired and didn't pay attention to all the important factors in the race. Had I paid more attention it would have been a very profitable day.

2. Its hard work. This is harder then most professions. I spend at least 30-40 mins per meeting to start. I don't analyse all the races and I cut it down usually to around 2-4 races per race track. I then spend about 10 mins looking through each of the selections to come up with initial selections. I then watch the videos of previous races where possible and look for reasons why the horses are entered in the races. Are they there to win or make up the numbers ? To do todays form which was 5 meetings took me 3 hours. Saturdays form is started the night before or I don't have enough time to do it.

3. There is no real day off. If you don't want to put in the effort you won't make any money. I've had a day where I just didn't want to do the form but I pushed through and got it done. That was Day 4 and it resulted in a very good profit.

4. It can be lonely. There are no work mates to help on problems. You can't just go ask someone to look at something for you. Its all up to you.

5. You get rewarded for your efforts. In a job if you are good at what you do then you may pick up a pay rise. But if your really good at punting your pay increases are only limited by how much money you can put on safely. If you are good your bank increases and you can make more money.

Today is shaping up ok so far but still one race to go (Geraldton Race 7) . I'll report in todays efforts later today.

woof43 27th December 2017 07:01 PM

1 Hindsight BIAS is a wonderful thing.
2. Never cut races from a meeting - unless they have been parsed through a process that Qualifies races- once filtered your next process needs to Validate.
If your handicapping process only works on a small subset of races , go back to your day job.
3. Set aside at least one day for data housekeeping or R & D basically a mental health day
4. A Team is a must
5. Whatever your doing has to be scale-able

UselessBettor 27th December 2017 07:55 PM

Interesting post Woof.

I find all your comments very applicable to my system betting but I don't think they are as applicable to handicapping analysis manually.

1. You cant use a team. Its not possible. I wouldn't trust other peoples handicapping skills either.
2. I would think any betting would be scalable. It just needs more money :)

UselessBettor 27th December 2017 07:59 PM

Day 1: $3070 Loss
Day 2: $790 Profit
Day 3: 0 (Christmas)
Day 4: $1660 Profit
Day 5: $660 Profit

Finally recovered that loss day.

Handicapping a race involves a lot of back and forth analysis. Your never just looking at one selection. You are comparing them to each other. Using the bookie prices is a good starting point but they are often not quite right. This is where you need to use your own ideas to know what really has a chance to win and what doesn't.

Mark 28th December 2017 07:00 AM

In a word, no, I couldn't do this. I've never lost anywhere near that first day amount and don't intend to. Nice steady income, win almost every day for me.

UselessBettor 28th December 2017 07:37 AM

Originally Posted by Mark
In a word, no, I couldn't do this. I've never lost anywhere near that first day amount and don't intend to. Nice steady income, win almost every day for me.

Its a very different method to your book making so it can have larger losses if I get it really wrong. I back my judgement though. I would expect to win 13 out of 14 days. I'm looking for only that one loss every fortnight.

I've tried to get the bookmaking method working but its very hard to do and I think you can do it well as you have a very good understanding of where the odds are going which is very hard to program.

Mind you I found a method of bookmaking which makes a fortune but it requires you be on the upper discount levels for betfair. Its quite interesting how once you get the betfair points up high then it opens new opportunities.

UselessBettor 28th December 2017 11:33 AM

Finished the handicapping for today. I am looking to make around $450 today but will obviously depend on the odds for the selections.

I'll be on a total of 12 races out of the 22 possible races today. These are broken down to 2 races at Gosford, 4 races at Yarra Valley and 6 races at Corowa.

It took me just over 2 hours today to go through the 22 races.

UselessBettor 28th December 2017 05:01 PM

Update at the end of Day 6:

Day 1: $3070 Loss
Day 2: $790 Profit
Day 3: 0 (Christmas)
Day 4: $1660 Profit
Day 5: $660 Profit
Day 6: $740 Profit

Showing a profit for the week now which is making it more worthwhile. I won't make $2000 this week which is disappointing even with a profit tomorrow but I should clear at least $1000 profit for the week (providing I don't lose).

Today gave me a few races with really good odds and was able to exceed my expectation.

I did some R+D for my system betting this afternoon and was happy to have found a few new angles which look promising. They will add an extra 40-50 units per year to that side of my betting.

Looking forward to tomorrows meetings with a total of 52 races. I'll get started on those tonight and hopefully have a few meetings prepared before tomorrow morning.

UselessBettor 29th December 2017 10:51 AM

Spent the last 1.5 hours doing form for 4 meetings. Those are the first 4 meetings of the day. That leaves me three more meetings for the afternoon/night racing still to go. I am always wary of night racing so probably won't pick too many selections in those last 3 meetings.

A few of the meetings are verging on SOFT 5 or GOOD 4 so its been a bit tricky picking the right selections for the races. I've covered my bases and decided to either leave the races out or cover both possibilities if I considered it was worthwhile.

From the first four meetings I have come up with 12 races to try and profit from. This is out of a total of 30 races. Breakdown is 4 races at Bairnsdale, 5 races at Coffs Harbour, 1 race at Canberra and 2 races at Kilcoy.

From these four meetings I am expecting to make at least $400 from these 12 races.

UselessBettor 29th December 2017 12:25 PM

Knocked off handicapping for Gawler and Cranbourne.

I'll be focusing on 5 races at Gawler and 2 races at Cranbourne. This brings my total races up to 19 races from a total of 45 races.

My target profit for the day is around $600 but will depend on the odds available.

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