Here is a formula for working out what losing sequences you can expect:
Bets = 1/(1-SR)^n where n number of losers in a row Bets = no. bets before you could expect such a sequence SR = strike rate as a decimal. eg. favs SR = 0.3 (30%) n=10 (10 losers in a row) 1/(1-0.3)^10 = 35 so you could expect ten favs to lose in a row once every 35 bets. This scared the crap out of me the first time I saw it! This seemed a bit "off" to me initially but if you consider it this way it makes more sense. If 11 lose in a row that is 2 times ten losses in a row. So if you go 70 bets and have one losing sequence of 11, you have actually had two losing sequences of 10 which averages out to 1/35. note : you can expect 11 losers in a row once every 51 bets (@30%SR). |
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