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-   -   EPL Tips Round 1 (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=27005)

UselessBettor 17th August 2013 07:50 PM

EPL Tips Round 1
 
EPL Tips :

Liverpool
Arsenal
Everton
Sunderland
West Brom
West Ham
Man United
Tottenham
Chelsea
Man City

Lord Greystoke 17th August 2013 08:03 PM

Any suggestions for a parlay play, UB?

Cheers LG

UselessBettor 17th August 2013 08:30 PM

Now I realise straight tips are quite useless. So I will also put up what I think are good bets with ratings and odds and Kelly staking.

Liverpool to beat Stoke 87/98 = 87%. Odds $1.41 (71%)
Swansea vs Man Utd 84/118 = 71%. Odds $2.05 (49%)
Chelsea vs Hull 83/89 = 93%. Odds $1.20 (83%)

Lets assume Half Kelly Betting for this exercise:

$1000.

Liverpool betsize = ((0.87*1.41)-1)/0.41 = 55% / 2 = 25% = $250
Man Utd betsize = ((0.71*2.05)-1)/1.05 = 43% / 2 = 21% = $210
Chelsea betsize = ((0.93*1.20)-1)/0.20 = 58% = 29% = $290

Lets see if this works.

UselessBettor 17th August 2013 08:32 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Any suggestions for a parlay play, UB?

Cheers LG

See my last post. I am not very good at sports betting and I admit it. I'm just trying a few things for the EPL this season.

Those would be the 3 bets to string together though.

Lord Greystoke 17th August 2013 08:41 PM

Nice one UB, here's to a clean lift-off.

Cheers LG

UselessBettor 18th August 2013 07:30 AM

Quote:
Liverpool betsize = ((0.87*1.41)-1)/0.41 = 55% / 2 = 25% = $250
Man Utd
betsize = ((0.71*2.05)-1)/1.05 = 43% / 2 = 21% = $210

Both the above won. Bank now : $102.5+$220.5+$1000=$1323


Bets outstanding:
Chelsea betsize = ((0.93*1.20)-1)/0.20 = 58% = 29% = $290

UselessBettor 18th August 2013 04:22 PM

Bank : 1323

Bets Outstanding :
Chelsea bet size = ((0.93*1.20)-1)/0.20 = 58% = 29% = $290

New Bets
Tottenham to beat Crystal Palace 67/79 = 85% Odds $1.74 (57%)
Tottenham bet size = ((0.85*1.74)-1)/0.74 = 64%% / 2 = 32% = $320

UselessBettor 19th August 2013 04:50 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Bank : 1323

Bets Outstanding :
Chelsea bet size = ((0.93*1.20)-1)/0.20 = 58% = 29% = $290

New Bets
Tottenham to beat Crystal Palace 67/79 = 85% Odds $1.74 (57%)
Tottenham bet size = ((0.85*1.74)-1)/0.74 = 64%% / 2 = 32% = $320

4/4 in the first round. You can't have a better start that that.

Bank : $1617.80

Lord Greystoke 19th August 2013 10:03 AM

Houston to UB1..
You are good to orbit, Commander

Cheers LG

UselessBettor 20th August 2013 07:23 AM

I forgot to post Man City vs Newcastle last night. For the purpose of completeness I have posted it below:

Man City to beat Newcastle 103/115 = 90% Odds $1.27 (79%)
Man City bet size = ((0.90*1.27)-1)/0.27 = 52% / 2 = 26% = $260

Bank: $1688.00

5/5 first round.


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