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-   -   Don Scott Favourites (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21451)

Try Try Again 26th April 2011 10:34 AM

Don Scott Favourites
 
This is a system I have been following daily since 20th March and it is showing a S/R >32% and POT%>70% - I believe the latter will drop as the system enters new grounds but still should show an overall healthy profit.

RULES
  1. Only consider Victorian and NSW meetings on Good or Dead tracks
  2. Don Scott Favourite between $2.00 and $3.60 inclusive
  3. No Don Scott equal favourites
  4. No city meetings
  5. No "Open" Maiden races, restricted Maiden races OK
  6. Races with 8 to 13 runners only
  7. Races >= 1200m only
The only other proviso I use is the contender's SP must be <=14.00 but this rule may not suit everyone unless you have the time to monitor the changing prices.

Today's contenders are:-

Bendigo R3 Zaeem
Bendigo R6 Keep Control
Bendigo R7 Redinsky

Good luck to anyone who jumps aboard the roller coaster ride!

darkydog2002 26th April 2011 01:32 PM

Thanks for that.
Will monitor it for awhile.

Cheers
darky.

aussielongboat 26th April 2011 08:53 PM

they all ran a place and betting each way you won 33% POT.

cheers

Try Try Again 27th April 2011 07:10 AM

I should have included the Place S/R is about 64% showing a POT% of approximately 20% over 93 bets since 20th March.

Dividends are based on best of NSW and Vic totes.

Obviously there is still a long way to go but the signs are good!

Try Try Again 27th April 2011 09:59 AM

Two potential contenders today at Cranbourne depending on SP rule.

R4#9 Tequila Queen
R7#1 Road To Roam

Try Try Again 28th April 2011 10:30 AM

No winners from the 2 selections at Cranbourne.

There is one contender at Ballarat (depending on SP).

R4#12 Fleeting Embrace

Is it too early for any survivors to put on their safety vests and move to rescue boats?

aussielongboat 28th April 2011 11:28 AM

I have trialed your system with my data.
my results showed about -2% On T/0 using tatts dividends.

If you want to give it a real pump along I would suggest the following:
1. Win% rank 1-3
2. Career starts <=10
3. All tracks in Australia

Using the above and making a SP guess this is what you get for today

Ballarat R 4 #12 0x072 Fleeting Embrace
Wyong R9 #11 5x372 Kentucky Belle
York R1 #5 5x349 Double Swirl

cheers
aussie

Try Try Again 28th April 2011 11:38 AM

Hi Aussielongboat,

Thanks for your reply.

Did you only consider Good and Dead Tracks as you have listed Wyong which is a Heavy track?

As I said in my original rules I have only looked at NSW and VIC meetings so how did the other States qualifiers go as I am achieving >70% POT currently.

What %POT and S/R did you achieve using your new rules?

If we continue to inspire others to look at the rules and modify them maybe we can get the pot of gold!

aussielongboat 28th April 2011 11:49 AM

I used all surfaces and all races and I didnt filter out the other states.
i will have to reload the data to get the surfaces and the race class accurate.
that will take some time.

the main thing i noticed was that the SP filter was very important.

cheers

aussielongboat 28th April 2011 02:52 PM

Ballarat R 4 #12 0x072 Fleeting Embrace......unplcd
Wyong R9 #11 5x372 Kentucky Belle.......scr
York R1 #5 5x349 Double Swirl 1st 2.90/1.50


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