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-   -   AFL Round 12 Predictions (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=5038)

goldmember 9th June 2004 03:32 PM

ST KILDA $14 !!!!!

goldmember 9th June 2004 03:33 PM

Moeee. must be a typo

9th June 2004 05:57 PM

rabbitz,

1. I'm not allowed to ask? Just say so next time. By knowing much you're betting it gives me an idea of how likely you think it (BRIS by 20-39) is.

2. I haven't thought about it much yet, but let me just say this. There's a reason Brisbane by 20-39 is at $4.00.

rabbitz 9th June 2004 09:27 PM

primo It doesnt matter what I'm betting. The odds are longer because the score has to between 20-39.outside of head to head lions$1.65
and ess $2.10
and under and over 39.5 pts its actually the favourite
Lions 1-19 $4.75
Lions 20-39 $4
Lions 40-59 $6.5
Lions 60+ $11.00
ess 1-19 $4.75
ess 20-39 $5.25
ess 40-59 $6.5
ess 60+ $17
primo it may be fairly close but I thought $4
was better value than lions under 39.5 $2.35
Cheers

rabbitz 9th June 2004 09:34 PM

Ok Mo and others tips and margins
Carlton by 32
st kilda by 68
brisbane by 32
west coast by 22
sydney by 16
kangaroos BY 18
fremantle by 26
melbourne by 27

moeee 10th June 2004 01:51 PM

Looking at the margins submitted,the thing I notice most is the common denominator that St.Kilda are going to s--t in.
Last weeks effort puts me off having a bet on the St.Kilda game this week.
System says they will win by 10 goals,but my guts is saying don't bet.
Trouble is if I listen to my guts too much,I probably never get a bet on.
Appears most punters here know when to forgive a poor result.


sportznut 10th June 2004 02:26 PM

Okay, I've done a few small reassessments to my ratings. The predictions now become:

Carlton 99 Hawthorn 79
W.Bulldogs 73 St Kilda 141
Essendon 112 Brisbane 100
West Coast 101 Adelaide 87
Port Adel 110 Sydney 90
Geelong 111 Kangaroos 94
Richmond 89 Fremantle 89
Melbourne 121 Collingwood 93

Probably way off the mark but who knows?

Floydyboy 10th June 2004 02:29 PM

Correct me if im wrong but from what ive seen is that Swans play spoiling football by stacking the defensive end Yet when I watched them last week they seemed to be able to break fast from the back (more men more options I suppose)Then created there chances up front. Saints will win IMO... by how many who knows ..... about 8 goals would be nice

goldmember 10th June 2004 03:05 PM

The swans have been hard to catch for me, they seem to give port adel trouble every time they play them, i backed port in the Q/F last year and the swans beat them, overall the swans have 6 wins to 4 and have won 3/5 at AAMI stadium, so there's no home advantage to port on those stats.

Essendon have 13 wins + 1 draw from 20 at telstra dome and the lions have 8 wins + 1 draw from 16 games there, almost even there , so no big disadvantage to the lions playing there.

goldmember 10th June 2004 03:29 PM

Moeee,is the M.C.G a hoodoo for the saints [not suggesting for 1 minute that they can lose to the bulldogs] but had a look at their last 20 games there,7 wins, only 2 have been in the day [5 at night] and the last win there R10 2003 against hawthorn 118-90


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