FRIDAY JUNE 11 AEST
Carlton vs Hawthorn
Telstra Dome 7:40 PM AEST

SATURDAY JUNE 12 AEST
Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda
MCG 2:10 PM AEST

Essendon vs Brisbane Lions
Telstra Dome 7:10 PM AEST

West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide
Subiaco Oval 5:40 PM AWST

SUNDAY JUNE 13 ACST
Port Adelaide vs Sydney Swans
AAMI Stadium 12:40 PM ACST

Geelong vs Kangaroos
Skilled Stadium 2:10 PM AEST

Richmond vs Fremantle
MCG 2:10 PM AEST

MONDAY JUNE 14 AEST
Melbourne vs Collingwood
MCG 2:10 PM AEST

Gaudio to kick the 1st goal!

Hey Phil whats your prob i can remember when you used to have a tip, Now all you seem to do is stick ya beak in and hang sh,, on people
Be a legend and pick the card for next week
Its all a bit of fun here no need to take peoples opinions personally .Youve made your point (you dont like sportz)That being the case dont read his threads ,but dont let it it bother ya ....IMO its worth reading this forum if only to pick up some info >I suppose what im trying to say in short is .. Lighten up champ lifes to short to be stressed

My tips...

Carlton
St Kilda
Brisbane
West Coast
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Fremantle
Melbourne

He cracks me up that Phil.
Not so funny in the horse ******** section,but funny here.

Well Floydyboy,it seems you got seven last week.Every chance you're gonna do it again.
Find it strange how you go against Freo at home,then tip them to win away.Not saying its wrong,just strange.

Well anyway,ditto you're tips for me.

Value bet is points head start Adelaide

Just an addendum here that I in fact confused Primos' tips with Floydyboy,who sent me to put in my tips but I can't see yours Floydyboy.
And that's the truth.


[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-06-07 22:14 ]

Sorry got weighlayed (or however you spell it)
Missed 2 Last week Saints and Adelaide ...I had a shocker.... all the value I found in the AFL, I Multied in to my ubeaut,red hot, couldnt get beat NRL selections and ended up with the ******** out of my pants haha....Ive been told weekends like that can be character building ...but its a learning process and im picking enough winners to feel confident of snagging the odd multi ,,, enough drivel heres my early tips

CARLTON
SAINTS
LIONS
ADELAIDE
PORT
KANGAROOS
FREMANTLE
MELB


[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-06-09 20:27 ]

Hey Floydyboy hope you're feeling better after getting that off your chest. Glad to have been some service :smile:

Your kidding if he's not funny.

Geez,big call there on Adelaide,Floydyboy.
Like I said,with the points in,a value bet,but straight out,way to go Floydyboy.
Suppose you could put some of your winnings from Melbourne last week.
Anyway,same call as before.
How come no go Fremantle at home,then pick them to win away.How come that?

One other thing.If your annoyed with Unlucky Phil,just think how ********ed Sportznut must be.
Don't see him posting his tips.At least not until the bird has flown.
Oh well I suppose that's Smartgambling.

Cheers Mo.

Does this look like a good bet...

Pick 6
Brisbane-West Coast-Port-Geelong-Fremantle-Melbourne

at $11 - is that good or is that good.
Give me a good reason not to make this bet, besides the possibility of an upset.

Well its not so much to do where they are playing as who they are playing.As far as Adelaide is concerned its my guts .Those selections are from my express method... Look at the teams, consider nothing except who you think will win and jot them down...Later in the week it may be different with injuries and such..and as i said before I lost all my AFL money because I multied them into my NRL selections ... but we'll get there

I am only planning to bet $5 on the bet, if I win there's a great profit, if I lose it's no big deal.

I'm starting to have doubts about Brisbane though, if they have equal points with Essendon and the match is being played in Melbourne why do we all predict them to win?

Am a bit wary of points multiples after the crows let me down last week
Have taken Lions at 20-39 @ $4.00
Early ,considering essendon have players at tribunal,if they lose a few through suspension notably solomon and johnson and rioli,could be more.remember the lions on ,the got the power and also I think their favourite song the lion sleeps tonight has been played too much,they havent really got out of second gear for a while.I think they will get no.4 this year.

how much are you betting on the brisbane lions to win by 20-39 points?

Primo two questions
1.Why do you ask
2.What do you think the winner or magin might be

Hey Primo.
Was that you who mentioned something about a huge bet on Collingwood last week.
If it was,don't concern yourself with the amount others invest.
For some people,$5 is equivalent to anothers $500.
I know people who go to the tote and invest $200 on a horse,after just 2 or so minutes of thought.
If it is calming to you to know that somebody lost more than you did on the event,then you need to re-assess your punting attitude.
Tell you what.If I saw $5 in the gutter,I'd have no qualms about stopping to pick it up and putting it in my pocket.
When you start investing more than you can afford,you begin the roller-coaster ride to disappointment and many sessions of misery.

Six selections in a Multi is pushing it a bit.I suggest you knock it down to four.
Write down the payout for each of the possible combinations of four,and see which of these turn you on the most.

Cheers Mo.

Depending on any big team changes, here are my current ratings:
Carlton 96 Hawthorn 88
W.Bulldogs 78 St Kilda 134
Essendon 110 Brisbane 98
West Coast 101 Adelaide 87
Port Adel 110 Sydney 90
Geelong 111 Kangaroos 89
Richmond 89 Fremantle 89
Melbourne 117 Collingwood 97

Well, there you go Moeee. I've put my neck on the chopping block there. Let's see how they go. Before you ask, no I won't be betting on a draw in the Richmond/Fremantle game! That's just the way my ratings came out. Anyway, using your pricing formula, what odds do those ratings represent?

ST KILDA by 50
BRISBANE by 18
W/COAST by 20
SWANS by 12
KANGAROOS by 4
FREEMANTLE by 26
MELBOURNE by 14

CARLTON by 22
ST KILDA by 50
BRISBANE by 18
W/COAST by 20
SWANS by 12
KANGAROOS by 4
FREEMANTLE by 26
MELBOURNE by 14

Carlton by 6 $1.75 Hawthorn $2.30
St.Kilda by 60 $1.05 Bulldogs $16
West Coast by 2 $1.90 Adelaide $2.10
Brisbane by 3 $1.85 Essendon $2.15
Port Power by 9 $1.65 Sydney $2.50
Geelong by 11 $1.60 Kangas $2.65
Fremantle by 24 $1.33 Richmond $4
Melbourne by 21 $1.40 Magpies $3.60

On 2004-06-09 14:04, sportznut wrote:
Depending on any big team changes, here are my current ratings:
Carlton 96 Hawthorn 88 $1.70 $2.45
W.Bulldogs 78 St Kilda 134 $14 $1.07
Essendon 110 Brisbane 98 $1.55 $2.75
West Coast 101 Adelaide 87 $1.50 $2.90
Port Adel 110 Sydney 90 $1.40 $3.50
Geelong 111 Kangaroos 89 $1.35 $3.75
Richmond 89 Fremantle 89 $2 $2
Melbourne 117 Collingwood 97 $1.40 $3.50

Well, there you go Moeee. I've put my neck on the chopping block there. Let's see how they go. Before you ask, no I won't be betting on a draw in the Richmond/Fremantle game! That's just the way my ratings came out. Anyway, using your pricing formula, what odds do those ratings represent?

Don't see no chopping block at all,Sportznut.
Free advice I'm seeing.Take it or leave it.
The odds for your selected draw would be $40.
You'd be pressed to get 50's anyway.No value in chasing draws.Too much time between collects.

Cheers Mo.

Sorry.Just edited the Geelong game price.
And then the Saints game.(Thanks GM)
_________________
You can only win if the odds are in your favour!

[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-06-09 15:34 ]

[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-06-09 15:37 ]

ST KILDA $14 !!!!!

Moeee. must be a typo

rabbitz,

1. I'm not allowed to ask? Just say so next time. By knowing much you're betting it gives me an idea of how likely you think it (BRIS by 20-39) is.

2. I haven't thought about it much yet, but let me just say this. There's a reason Brisbane by 20-39 is at $4.00.

primo It doesnt matter what I'm betting. The odds are longer because the score has to between 20-39.outside of head to head lions$1.65
and ess $2.10
and under and over 39.5 pts its actually the favourite
Lions 1-19 $4.75
Lions 20-39 $4
Lions 40-59 $6.5
Lions 60+ $11.00
ess 1-19 $4.75
ess 20-39 $5.25
ess 40-59 $6.5
ess 60+ $17
primo it may be fairly close but I thought $4
was better value than lions under 39.5 $2.35
Cheers

Ok Mo and others tips and margins
Carlton by 32
st kilda by 68
brisbane by 32
west coast by 22
sydney by 16
kangaroos BY 18
fremantle by 26
melbourne by 27

Looking at the margins submitted,the thing I notice most is the common denominator that St.Kilda are going to s--t in.
Last weeks effort puts me off having a bet on the St.Kilda game this week.
System says they will win by 10 goals,but my guts is saying don't bet.
Trouble is if I listen to my guts too much,I probably never get a bet on.
Appears most punters here know when to forgive a poor result.

Okay, I've done a few small reassessments to my ratings. The predictions now become:

Carlton 99 Hawthorn 79
W.Bulldogs 73 St Kilda 141
Essendon 112 Brisbane 100
West Coast 101 Adelaide 87
Port Adel 110 Sydney 90
Geelong 111 Kangaroos 94
Richmond 89 Fremantle 89
Melbourne 121 Collingwood 93

Probably way off the mark but who knows?

Correct me if im wrong but from what ive seen is that Swans play spoiling football by stacking the defensive end Yet when I watched them last week they seemed to be able to break fast from the back (more men more options I suppose)Then created there chances up front. Saints will win IMO... by how many who knows ..... about 8 goals would be nice

The swans have been hard to catch for me, they seem to give port adel trouble every time they play them, i backed port in the Q/F last year and the swans beat them, overall the swans have 6 wins to 4 and have won 3/5 at AAMI stadium, so there's no home advantage to port on those stats.

Essendon have 13 wins + 1 draw from 20 at telstra dome and the lions have 8 wins + 1 draw from 16 games there, almost even there , so no big disadvantage to the lions playing there.

Moeee,is the M.C.G a hoodoo for the saints [not suggesting for 1 minute that they can lose to the bulldogs] but had a look at their last 20 games there,7 wins, only 2 have been in the day [5 at night] and the last win there R10 2003 against hawthorn 118-90

Well, St Kilda have only really become a strong team in the last couple of years and in that time, I don't think they've played many games at the MCG.

Sportz, i realise they are better but i didn't know if they had problems there or not. In 2002-2003 they played there 5 times for 1 win against hawthorn.
There last night game there was in R22 2001, also against hawthorn, winning by 2 points, what i'm saying is that maybe at the m.c.g, at night they mightn't win by the cricket score i originally thought they would have won by, maybe only 30-40pts.

Just looking at the last 5 games at the m.c.g
w/bulldogs [average]92 opposition 112
st kilda [average]90 opposition 101

Well, I must say that they are almost certainly a better team at the Telstra Dome than they are at the MCG. They're practically unbeatable under the roof.

I know its a long way off, but i always like to see the best two play in the grand final, hopefully brisbane and st kilda.

I think that although St Kilda are playing well they might and I'm saying just might
choke in the finals just like port.So having said that Brisbane v Essendon at the g in september with a similar result to 2001.Also regarding a teams history at a particular ground,I think st Kilda have come of age so the MCG has probably lost the old hoodoo.

Wish you would stop doing that Sportznut.
Ending your tips with doubt.

You're definately not pulling marbles out of a barrel there.
I'm quite sure you've put a lot of effort into your selections and I think you should show more confidence in your ability.
From what I see and what you explained,you probably have 8 winners there.
Thing is I have my own methods of selection,but I respect your results whether they come in or not.
I didn't knock you for bragging last time,but for tipping after the race.
If your tips don't correspond with mine,we can discuss and review.
I'd much rather see 8 losers tipped before the race,than 8 winners tipped afterwards.

Cheers.

7 out of 20.
By my reckoning that comes out to 35%
Don't know how far back you went in your travels there,Goldmember,But if you care to find out their winning percentage (St.Kilda's) overall for the same period,excluding this year,35% is probably a better than average figure.

Sportznut.
On your advice,my advice would be to take the double,ESSENDON and RICHMOND.

But on my advice,my advice would be to steer clear of the AFL this weekend.Maybe a trip on the banks of the Murray.
Tell you what.Take me with you and I'll pay for the petrol.

Cheers Mo.

Hey Sportznut.
If I could be bothered,I could have my selections ready by midnight after the last game.
I've toyed with the idea of player ratings to allow for the ins and outs,(not the clockwork orange kind),but don't know if its worth the extra effort.

Tell me,if you will,what criteria did you use to modify your selections and do you monitor whether it improves your profit margin.