RaceCensus Database
 

Thought I'd post some interesting data from RaceCensus.

Last start winners on country tracks that started favourite...
33.39% Win
-12.40% Loss

Last start winners on provincial tracks that started favourite...
33.04% Win
-13.50% Loss

Last start winners on metropolitan tracks that started favourite...
35.15% Win
-10.59% Loss

First starters on country tracks that started favourite...
37.36% Win
-13.96% Loss

First starters on provincial tracks that started favourite...
36.55% Win
-15.86% Loss

First starters on metropolitan tracks that started favourite...
34.92% Win
-19.00% Loss

Makes for some interesting thought.
Took less than 5 minutes for the entire database to process and calculate over 15+ years of data ;)

Thankyou CP

Where there's dirt there is gold...

My data on things like CP's database is out of date.

Last time I looked backing favourites lost 12.3%,
At around a div of $2.8 and a strike/rate of 31%.

These figures are about 6-7 years old.

But "IF" close to the mark in CP'S stats anything,
Better than the above is a starting point beating the average
albeit a losing one.

So last start winners on metropolitan tracks.


Cheers.
Garyf.

I've only revealed half the story here, because it wouldn't be fair to existing clients. The data is correct, but there is further advantage breaking it down into categories.

Garyf, I've done a quick test on Metropolitan favourites for the last 15 plus years, here are the results:

31.60% Strike Rate
11.52% Loss on turnover
$2.80 average dividend

Then...

Jan 2008 to July 31st 2014
32.71% Strike Rate
8.96% Loss on turnover
$2.78 average dividend

Things to consider: There have been many changes in track surfaces since 2008 and race classes. We have also had one or two champion horses.

Not surprised.
The trick is to find the ones that are not false favs.
Not hard if one can read form.
i.e Backmarker at 1000 M

At a disadvantage at any distance in fact.
(more prone to checks ,blocks ,wide running.)

Thanks, will enter this current new data 2008=>as a reference & benchmark,
For myself in the future.

Cheers.
Garyf.

I wonder what role field size has in all this. Id say field size and a more intelligent market.

Yep the 1st part Field/Size, obviously the smaller the size,
The higher the strike/rate & the lower the odds.

I can address all this with my own data, what I didn't,
Have was a benchmark figure of "ALL" favourites for,
The last 6 odd years just to use as a guide to any new,
Strategies I may want to look at re that stat..

Market being more intelligent I will leave for others,
With data-bases to comment.

Certainly with my own, nothing is showing up as,
Of recent years but you may be right.

Cheers.

From my studies, there is no evidence to suggest that the market is any more intelligent (as a whole group), than it was 50 years ago.

Favourites by raceday:

Monday: 31.70% S/R
Tuesday: 32.43% S/R
Wednesday: 31.64% S/R
Thursday: 32.01% S/R
Friday: 32.02% S/R
Saturday: 31.74% S/R
Sunday: 31.39% S/R

P.S.

Saturday
Metro: 31.33% S/R
Provincial: 32.71% S/R
Country: 31.06% S/R

A little off topic but an interesting find

When the rail is out at the Valley - Leaders have a huge advantage at night but not during the day.

Thoughts?

Leaders still have an advantage over certain distances at Moonee Valley.
But when the rail is out, the camber of the turn is tighter, so those up front do have a distinct advantage coupled with the short straight.
Flemington on the other hand, makes no difference at all.
Canterbury is another track, that has the same bias.

For example:
The average settling position for winners at Moonee Valley, followed by their position at the 400m mark over various distances.

1000m 3.50 3.10
1200m 4.02 3.52
1500m 4.90 3.61
1600m 4.69 3.62
2040m 4.78 3.22

Even over distance you want to be on pace, but at the turn you want to be leading or in the leading pack with a clear run.

The thing is CP for Moonee Valley in particular Jockeys, Trainers and even majority of punters are aware of the leader bias at MV. Does this mean the value is potentially eroded on front settling type horses. Or even that the pace in some races is so extreme because everyone knows of the bias that it actually ends up favouring mid to back runners?

I know the stats still support a POT for front runners at MV at most distances, but I still think the questions above are relevant.

I think finding leader/front bias at tracks which are less obviously or well known to be suited to leaders is a good approach. For instance i've found Belmont to be pretty supportive of leader types whereas the long straight would in general be deemed as a negative to leader types.

Josh, you are spot on with this over certain distances.
It is not necessarily the length of the straight, but more importantly the size of the track itself and radius of particular turns. The effect on horses on different radiuses is the most important factor in leader bias, mix this with pace (various distances) and there are hidden gems.

FAQ
 

Thought I'd post some answers to questions I frequently get:

The database is built on the Filemaker Pro Advanced platform.
All data is exportable to csv, excel, etc.
The database can be used on multiple computers.
It contains all TAB metropolitan, provincial and country races from 1999.
Dividends are from NSW TAB.
Exports can be fully customised, in that you can pick and choose which fields can be exported. This makes it a lot less intensive and easier to work with data you want.

Here is a full list of the fields contained in the database, along with explanations, each of these fields can be queried (apart from the summary fields of course:

<pre>
Field Name Field Type Further Explanation
2nd Last Run 400m Number Position at 400m
2nd Last Run 800m Number Position at 800m
2nd Last Run Age Text Race Age Restriction
2nd Last Run All Number Apprentice Allowance
2nd Last Run BP Number Barrier
2nd Last Run Class Text
2nd Last Run Date Date
2nd Last Run Distance Number
2nd Last Run Event Text
2nd Last Run Going Text Track Condition
2nd Last Run Jockey Text
2nd Last Run Last 600m Number Sectional Time
2nd Last Run Limit Number
2nd Last Run Margin Number
2nd Last Run Placing Number
2nd Last Run Prizemoney Number
2nd Last Run Prizemoney Won Number
2nd Last Run Rest Text Race Sex Restriction
2nd Last Run SP Number
2nd Last Run Starters Number
2nd Last Run Time Number Race Time
2nd Last Run Track Surface Text
2nd Last Run Venue Text
2nd Last Run Wgt Number Weight
2nd Last Run Winner Text Winner or second
3rd Last Run 400m Number Position at 400m
3rd Last Run 800m Number Position at 800m
3rd Last Run Age Text Race Age Restriction
3rd Last Run All Number Apprentice Allowance
3rd Last Run BP Number Barrier
3rd Last Run Class Text
3rd Last Run Date Date
3rd Last Run Distance Number
3rd Last Run Event Text
3rd Last Run Going Text Track Condition
3rd Last Run Jockey Text
3rd Last Run Last 600m Number Sectional Time
3rd Last Run Limit Number
3rd Last Run Margin Number
3rd Last Run Placing Number
3rd Last Run Prizemoney Number
3rd Last Run Prizemoney Won Number
3rd Last Run Rest Text Race Sex Restriction
3rd Last Run SP Number
3rd Last Run Starters Number
3rd Last Run Time Number Race Time
3rd Last Run Track Surface Text
3rd Last Run Venue Text
3rd Last Run Wgt Number Weight
3rd Last Run Winner Text Winner or second
4th Last Run 400m Number Position at 400m
4th Last Run 800m Number Position at 800m
4th Last Run Age Text Race Age Restriction
4th Last Run All Number Apprentice Allowance
4th Last Run BP Number Barrier
4th Last Run Class Text
4th Last Run Date Date
4th Last Run Distance Number
4th Last Run Event Text
4th Last Run Going Text Track Condition
4th Last Run Jockey Text
4th Last Run Last 600m Number Sectional Time
4th Last Run Limit Number
4th Last Run Margin Number
4th Last Run Placing Number
4th Last Run Prizemoney Number
4th Last Run Prizemoney Won Number
4th Last Run Rest Text Race Sex Restriction
4th Last Run SP Number
4th Last Run Starters Number
4th Last Run Time Number Race Time
4th Last Run Track Surface Text
4th Last Run Venue Text
4th Last Run Wgt Number Weight
4th Last Run Winner Text Winner or second
5th Last Run 400m Number Position at 400m
5th Last Run 800m Number Position at 800m
5th Last Run Age Text Race Age Restriction
5th Last Run All Number Apprentice Allowance
5th Last Run BP Number Barrier
5th Last Run Class Text
5th Last Run Date Date
5th Last Run Distance Number
5th Last Run Event Text
5th Last Run Going Text Track Condition
5th Last Run Jockey Text
5th Last Run Last 600m Number Sectional Time
5th Last Run Limit Number
5th Last Run Margin Number
5th Last Run Placing Number
5th Last Run Prizemoney Number
5th Last Run Prizemoney Won Number
5th Last Run Rest Text Race Sex Restriction
5th Last Run SP Number
5th Last Run Starters Number
5th Last Run Time Number Race Time
5th Last Run Track Surface Text
5th Last Run Venue Text
5th Last Run Wgt Number Weight
5th Last Run Winner Text Winner or second
Age Number
Age Restriction Text Race Age Restriction
Api Number Average Prizemoney
Api Rank Number Average Prizemoney Rank
Apprentice Text Y/N
Apprentice Claim Text Race Claiming Restrictions Y/N
Barrier Number
Career 2nds Number
Career 3rds Number
Career Place Percentage Number
Career Place Percentage Rank Number
Career Prizemoney Number
Career Prizemoney Rank Number
Career Starts Number
Career Win Percentage Number
Career Win Percentage Rank Number
Career Wins Number
Closing Price Number TAB Price
Closing Price Rank Number
Colour Text
Date Date
Day Text Day Of Week
Days Break Number Days Break Since Last Start
Days2 Number Days Break Since 2nd Last Start
Days3 Number Days Break Since 3rd Last Start
Days4 Number Days Break Since 4th Last Start
Days5 Number Days Break Since 5th Last Start
Dead 2nds Number
Dead 3rds Number
Dead Place Percentage Number
Dead Starts Number
Dead Win Percentage Number
Dead Wins Number
Distance 2nds Number
Distance 3rds Number
Distance Place Percentage Number
Distance Place Percentage Rank Number
Distance Starts Number
Distance Variation Number
Distance Win Percentage Number
Distance Win Percentage Rank Number
Distance Wins Number
Fast 2nds Number
Fast 3rds Number
Fast Place Percentage Number
Fast Starts Number
Fast Win Percentage Number
Fast Wins Number
Favourite Premium Number Second Favourite TAB price minus Favourite TAB price
First Up 2nds Number
First Up 3rds Number
First Up Place Percentage Number
First Up Place Percentage Rank Number
First Up Starts Number
First Up Win Percentage Number
First Up Win Percentage Rank Number
First Up Wins Number
Going Text Track Condition
Good 2nds Number
Good 3rds Number
Good Place Percentage Number
Good Starts Number
Good Win Percentage Number
Good Wins Number
Handicapping Text Handicap, Weight For Age, Set Weights etc.
Heavy 2nds Number
Heavy 3rds Number
Heavy Place Percentage Number
Heavy Starts Number
Heavy Win Percentage Number
Heavy Wins Number
Horse Text
Jockey Text
Last Run 400m Number Position at 400m
Last Run 800m Number Position at 800m
Last Run Age Text Race Age Restriction
Last Run All Number Apprentice Allowance
Last Run BP Number Barrier
Last Run Class Text
Last Run Date Date
Last Run Distance Number
Last Run Event Text
Last Run Going Text Track Condition
Last Run Jockey Text
Last Run Last 600m Number Sectional Time
Last Run Limit Number
Last Run Margin Number
Last Run Metro Track Text
Last Run Placing Number
Last Run Prizemoney Number
Last Run Prizemoney Won Number
Last Run Rest Text Race Sex Restriction
Last Run SP Number
Last Run Starters Number
Last Run Time Number Race Time
Last Run Track Surface Text
Last Run Venue Text
Last Run Wgt Number Weight
Last Run Winner Text Winner or second
Place Number Place TAB Dividend
Place Average Dividend Summary
Place Count Summary
Place Maximum Dividend Summary
Place Minimum Dividend Summary
Place POT Summary
Place Profit Summary
Place Return Summary
Place Strike Rate Summary
Place System Viability Summary
Prizemoney Variation Number Increase or Decrease in Race Prizemoney from Last Start
Pwls Rank Number Prizemoney Won Last Start Rank
Pwlts Number Prizemoney Won Last Three Starts
Pwlts Rank Number Prizemoney Won Last Three Starts Rank
Race Number
Race Class Text
Race Distance Number
Race Name Text
Race Prizemoney Number
Runners Number
Runs Since Spell Number
Same Going Text
Same Track Text
Selections Summary
Settled1 Number Last Start Settling Position
Settled2 Number Second Last Start Settling Position
Settled3 Number Third Last Start Settling Position
Settled4 Number Fourth Last Start Settling Position
Settled5 Number Fifth Last Start Settling Position
Sex Text
Sex Restriction Text Race Sex Restriction
Slow 2nds Number
Slow 3rds Number
Slow Place Percentage Number
Slow Starts Number
Slow Win Percentage Number
Slow Wins Number
State Text VIC, NSW, QLD, WA etc.
Tab Number
Track Text
Track 2nds Number
Track 3rds Number
Track Class Text Metro or Country
Track Place Percentage Number
Track Place Percentage Rank Number
Track Starts Number
Track Surface Text Turf, Dirt, All Weather
Track Win Percentage Number
Track Win Percentage Rank Number
Track Wins Number
Trainer Text
Weight Number
Weight Limit Number Race Weight Limit
Weight Ratio Number Topweight weight minus Second Topweight weight
Weight Variation Number Increase or Decrease in Weight from previous start
Win Number TAB Win Dividend
Win Average Dividend Summary
Win Count Summary
Win Maximum Dividend Summary
Win Minimum Dividend Summary
Win POT Summary Profit On Turnover
Win Profit Summary
Win Return Summary
Win Strike Rate Summary
Win System Viability Summary Profit or Loss Divided by Maximum Win Dividend
</pre>

Hi CP.

Glad you mentioned F-M-P in your post.
We are currently in the process of having,
All our excel spread sheets setup & put into it.

Have heard it's a great way to survey data,
When sheets get clogged up with data.

Purchased Pro-12v4 just getting some estimates,
Now and what's required time & expense wise.

Cheers.

Gary, I am a FMP Developer, so maybe I could help out.
If you care to drop me a line, I can give you a quote.
That quotation will be cc'd to Ozmium, so they will receive a commission from me.
It depends on your quotations, I may be able to do better or worse, depending what your requirements are.

racestats at hotmail dot com if you're interested, otherwise good luck with the project, it really is a great and more efficient platform.

No worries C/P thanks for that.

I will pass this task on to one of my racing,
Partners & assign him this task.

I will also get in touch with my,
Own details once he has made contact.

Give us around 2 x weeks for us to work it all,
Out then we will go from there.

To give you a time limit the project must be finished with payment made By the 31/12/2014.

We all have the product the setup is beyond us.

Leave the Ozmium part up to you, no problems there.

Cheers.
Garyf.

No worries garyf, pity is that I could have saved you purchasing FMP as I can develop runtime solutions for as many of you as required without the need to actually own a copy of the software.
I have the Advanced Developer Licence, which enables me to do this.
However, before you do anything mad like return it, we would need to discuss exactly what you want. Probably in terms of automation, coding , or just data analysis.
There are certain automation limitations that only additional plugins will give you, which may require another coder. But that's an unknown at this point.
Leave it all to you.

Metro Tracks
Group One Favourites 33.57%
Group Two Favourites 33.31%
Group Three Favourites 30.59%
Listed Race Favourites 30.15%
Quality Race Favourites 30.14%
Open Class Favourites 31.88%
Maiden Class Favourites 34.74%

Interesting!

No worries CP.

Matt will be in contact with you shortly,
He hasn't purchased one yet & I have stopped.
Him for the moment, see what eventuates.

Cheers.
Garyf.

No worries at all. I may or may not be able to help, but I am a developer, so there might be a significant saving if I can help.
That time frame is well within reason, would expect it to take no more than a few weeks.

The importance of data when testing systems.
 

Here is an example of how important it is to have enough data when backtesting systems.

I was trialling a system and looked at the results for 2014.

There are benchmarks I use such as minimum number of selection to base a method on, at the pointy end of the market, I'd suggest a minimum of 2,000 selections, but I now advocate a minimum of 1,000 winners regardless of market price. I feel this gives a much more accurate picture of chances of ongoing performance. Of course, it going to be pretty difficult to get 1,000 winners out of most methods on outsiders. But that's my thoughts on why so many systems collapse even though "I have 3,000 races and it shows a profit."
The answer invariably is that of the 3,000 races, the profit is based on one or two outsiders.

This is why RaceCensus has a System Viability calculation, which is the profit divided by the maximum win dividend. It tells you how many winners make up your profit.

<pre>2014 Only
WIN PLACE
Bets: 263 260
Winners: 98 176
S.R.: 37.3% 67.7%
Outlay: 263.00 260.00
Return : 262.60 264.54
Profit : -0.40 4.54
P.O.T. : -0.2% 1.7% </pre>



<pre>2007 to 2014
WIN PLACE
Bets: 2902 2889
Winners: 960 1857
S.R.: 33.1% 64.3%
Outlay: 2902.00 2889.00
Return : 2580.90 2713.54
Profit : -321.10 -175.46
P.O.T. : -11.1% -6.1% </pre>

I've got to respect anyone that amasses a database. I've just spent a solid week collecting a years data with only 3 variables, that's the boring part. Then you start trying to disseminate that data and you start to find all these anomalies. Selections with equal rankings, late scratchings, incorrect source data..... The list goes on. All combine to throw out the true representation of what's really going on.

'All Hail' the database builders, a lot harder than it would appear.

Especially if you have little bit of OCD and are a perfectionist - it's brutal!

I've got to respect anyone that wins without a database. That's impressive.

The database part is by far the most boring thing that I do. It's just mind-numbingly boring, it takes everything I have to not fall asleep at the computer.

I think that a touch of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder is a necessary prerequisite for the resume CP....lol

Unlike me, whereby I'll collect 100,000 selections, break them up into 8 groups and they combined add up to 92,354.....******!!.......Aw that'll do, close enough :)

Yep, I'm a tad obsessive about numbers adding up.

All this above discussion is music to my ears.
as i have said previously i have seen many systems win for 3+ years then disappear -why ? was it because they had a "lucky" streak that ran for 3 years and now was reverting to the long term average or was this part of an even bigger picture - only more and more data will give that answer.

2ndly data management - i am always encouraged when i see systems that propose that you back the opening or closing favourite - encouraged you may ask ? yes because it provides mug money - i would say in 20% these things are not known until after the race.

Given the recent discussions over the track surfaces in Sydney, thought I'd post some stats that may or may not reflect some of the theories put forward for favourites at each venue.









Is Randwick really so bad given the average field sizes?

Been some discussion recently regarding Metro favourites versus Country and Provincial favourites on the net.

So how does it stack up?

Metro
31.63% S/R -11.44% POT
Provincial
32.21% S/R -13.59% POT
Country
31.53% S/R -12.93% POT

Doesn't seem to support the theories put forward.
In fact, it is telling that although Metro favourites don't win as often as Provincial favourites, but you lose less money by backing them. Metro favourites overall are better value than Provincial or Country favourites.
That is merely a starting point of course.

What about odds on favourites?

Metro
52.91% S/R -12.08% POT
Provincial
53.28% S/R -10.80% POT
Country
52.78% S/R -11.20% POT

What about favourites that are not odds on?

Metro
29.05% S/R -11.37% POT
Provincial
29.01% S/R -14.01% POT
Country
28.77% S/R -13.16% POT

In summary, as a generalization, odds on favourites are overbet on Metro tracks, but favourites that are not odds on are underbet in relation to Provincial or Country favourites.
There is much more you can get into such as field size and track condition, class and distance.
As always, returns can be improved by obtaining the best odds on your selections. Returns quoted are based on NSW TAB Dividends only.

RaceCensus has now been updated to 31/08/2014 and updates are being sent out tomorrow.

There's almost 5GB of data in the database covering more than 15 years data.
There's 2.279 million records and more than 218,000 races!

Attention Jason M.
Your RaceCensus Update has been returned from Queensland "Return To Sender".
Please email me your current postal address.

racestats at hotmail dot com.

Chrome, do I take it that a good place to start is "metro Tracks where the Fav is NOT odds on" but take the best price on offer"? all I want is to break even and I can retire proper!! serious!

ANS
 

Hi party

Metro fav under = 3.80 SP i have no hassle sorting these out bet fair fav even better.

4 to 7 years
no back markers
nsw tote or sp price easy to beat

5726 bets level stake 0.54% on turn over 36.7 sr

5726 bets to price 0.05% on turn over

behind 70 points at one stage


odds on level stakes -6.13% on turnover 740 bets

claiming apprentices lose about 10% on turn over.

ANS
 

3758 bets 3.85 turn over 34.9 SR

one losing year 2010 -5% on turn over -32 points

Chrome may be able to do longer as i only have 4 years hope this helps you retire all the best.

ans
 

59.5 or less saves 20 points

5 starts or more saves another 20 points

pm of 30,000 saves 50 points

ans
 

thats 30,000 plus pm

7 or more starters also helps

That would be a starting point only.
You need to account for drifters and steamers, when do you take the price?
Betfair will basically breakeven, BUT then there's commission and turnover charges.

I would look at harness leaders at the bell (a lap out) in running, or look into sports betting. You'll make a small profit either way. I'd suggest Pinnacle for sports betting, and taking a sport you know something about.

For example: I follow Tennis a fair bit.
The player who has the serve for the game is usually odds on and usually wins that game. However, when Ivanovic was playing a much lower ranked opponent early on in the series, I used to back her to win the game that was in play, if the other player, had serve.
I got some great odds, $5.00 and $6.00 to win the game.
She came through often enough to provide a nice return.
Ended up winning the match, but her match odds were a ridiculous $1.28.

I only use this method with well ranked players, who are playing much lower ranked players and their match odds are below $1.50.
Only if these three criteria are met, do I go in for the kill during the entire match when the other player has serve.