Pre-Post Favourites
 

I have started this thread due to the recent discussion raised by Dale regarding Pre-Post Favourites. With the latest Bet Selctor update I have been able to do some testing back to December 2011. In addition to the system I posted under the Rock Hard thread, here is another.

Rules:

-must be Pre-Post favourite (determined by AAP)
-must be NSWTAB favourite at race start
-must be top Handicapper rating (equal top is ok)
-must be a last start favourite
-age 3-5
-allotted weight <59kg (not including claims)

Results from test period Dec 2011 - Mar 2012:

135 selections
72 winners
53% S/R
185 unit return
50 unit profit
37% POT

When combined with the Rock Hard system:

193 selections
101 winners
52% S/R
268 unit return
75 unit profit
38% POT

Only 4 months of data to test with but with only a few simple rules it could be an effective long term system. I'll run a check on selections for April so far and post up the results.

Hiya Mattio,

Can you please clarify 'top handicapper rating'?

Cheers mate,

The Schmile

Hi TheSchmile,

Sorry mate, I should have clarified that the Handicapper rating is the rating the official handicapper gives the horse to allow them to compete in certain races such as Benchmark 80 etc. I'm not sure if this is in most formguides but they have in on the RISA website under Acceptances.

Cheers,

Matt.

Thanks again Mattio,

I'm assuming you're using NSW totes again so results look promising.

Did you include maidens in your rules?

The Schmile

Yes mate NSWTAB dividends so better prices will make for better results. I have left maidens in the rules for this system as they are not detrimental to the system at this stage - quite the opposite actually.

In the test period there were 24 maiden selections for 15 winners at 63% S/R and a 70% POT. I am making 1 further rule in that the track must be either Good or Dead, Slow and Heavy tracks are to be avoided. This extra rule dropped off quite a few unprofitable bets and gave the following results for the combined systems:

168 selections
90 winners
53% S/R
241 unit return
73 unit profit
43% POT

Hi Mattio,

Very interesting stats here and theory. Does this include every day of the week, and all venues. Do you have a breakdown for say just saturdays,

Paul

Hi Paul,

The figures are for all days and venues with the only exception being the Rock Hard system does not look at Thursdays as for some reason it is very poor on that day. Saturday's are not too bad 46% S/R and 16% POT with the best days being Wednesday and Friday with a combined S/R of around 70% from 36 selections.

I'm not sure about the long term future as I have only 4 months of data but I really like finding profitable systems around Favourites so I am hopeful it continues.

I am also looking at the other side of the data trying to find good lay systems as well.

Cheers,

Matt.

Yes! the old term for this is called "Cybernetics" and I can tell you that you are definitely on the right track (no pun there)

Thanks for the input party, you might have to elaborate a little though as a Google search quickly had me scratching my head in a Homer Simpson style fashion.

Incidentally a link on the search gave me the name of a mathematician - Norbert Wiener.....do you think that bloke had it rough as a kid?

Hey Mattio

Nice work here, be careful what you put up on a public forum though mate.