Fav betting with a twist
 

All,

We all know the stats .. 30% of favs win. Well thats not a bad strike rate, too bad about the average dividends price.

I am going to trial a "system" which bets the fav just before jump at each meeting where the course has over the last 12 meetings (approx 100 Races) had a strike rate of 40% or greater. I will use a progression betting so that I always return a profit if the fav wins. The Bets will start at $10.

I will monitor 2 systems. One at 40% strike rate and one at 35% strike rate.

The only Course I am betting tommorrow which has a 40% strike rate is

- Ascot

Courses with 35% or higher include :

- Ascot
- Bathurst
- Kambla Grange
- Randwick
- Toowoomba

Wish me Luck....

Good Luck Wes!!!
 

I'm a favorite only punter so I keep my head pretty low on this forum, but............................................... ..........................there are ways to make the favs pay. I hope this is another one. Bon chance.

Perhaps I can't see the woods for the trees here[?], but those courses have correspondingly lower odds [terrible] due to on average fewer runners to counteract the higher fav. SR to make them no better a fav. bet than anywhere else.

Two Bets ( and others ),

Just ran this over the last 3 days (16 Meetings) and the stats are as follows :
Initial Bet is $10 with progression bet to always end in profit.

35% Course favs or higher
Meetings : 13
Profit : $112
Highest Bet : $220

40% Course Favs or Higher
Meetings : 5
Profit : $39
Highest Bet : $10

I was amazed to see those which had 40% strike rate all hit within the first or second race.

If we bet on the place instead of the win every meeting, it hit within the 2nd race everytime.

NOt many meetings yet though .. Oh and all prices are unitab prices.

Good Luck

Crash,

Using a progression system for betting so more interested in Strike Rate than average dividend.

Using a progression system usually works better with a higher strike rate then a higher dividend.

We will see how it goes....

Thanks for your observation though.

Never mind the woods Crash.
I can't see how a level betting loss on the favs, can produce a profit when betting progressively on the same!?
Someone "Please explain"
Good luck to all.

Gday Iomaca

that is one of the most argued topics around.. turning fs into profit by staking,, I think it is possible (but hard work) if you are close to break even at FS.. I ran a set of races about 2000 from memory where the fs return was about 98%, but staked turned into about 104 - 105 % from memory... ( i used the 924 staking plan, that is available on this site somewhere) that file is on my old computer, if I can ever get to it again..

I think if you are more than a couple of points from making a profit at FS then forget it (just my opinion) it is pretty damn hard...and the return isn't that great..

Now for betting favs .. well I am running something that is in it's infancy but is showing promise... 10 bets 8 winners and 10 places.. I will see how it goes in 12 months time before popping the corks...

Iomaca,

Progression betting works after you get to a certain percentage strike rate. There is nothing to say that this method will or will not return a profit. I am just playing around with numbers and selections.

To tell the truth I am not a progression betting fan either but I thought in this instance it might actually have a chance of working.

Good Luck.

The maths have been here before [and everywhere else], even from a professor of maths proof here [mathematically], if you can't make a profit level stakes, no progression [regardless] will save you.

Still, punters will believe they can turn level stakes loss into progressive stakes profit with the 'right' progression in the 'right' circumstances, regardless of the maths or mathematical proof and that's a well known truism: We believe what we desperately want to believe regardless. Our minds come up with the 'logic' and 'evidence' required to custom fit our belief [but never ever mathamatical proof as 'evidence'].

Try it with real money for 6 months and see how far you get:-)

Geez,

Looks like this topic hit the nerve of some people .....

If you don't like betting on favs or progression betting then don't follow the topic.

Enough said.