AFL player ratings
 

This is a sample of what I'm doing this year.

What happens is I add up the ratings of players actually playing in the game and that is my expected score.

Any comments on whether they look right or wrong.

Player ratings for Brisbane.

LUKE POWER------8
NIGEL LAPPIN----7.8
MICHAEL VOSS----7.7
SIMON BLACK-----7.6
JONATHAN BROWN--7.2
JASON AKERMANIS-7.1
JAMIE CHARMAN---5.6
CHRIS JOHNSON---5.5
MARTIN PIKE-----5.3
BLAKE CARACELLA-5.3
SHAUN HART------5.2
DANIEL BRADSHAW-5.1
RICHARD HADLEY--5
JUSTIN LEPPITSCH-4.7
BRAD SCOTT------4.7
CRAIG McRAE-----4.6
ALASTAIR LYNCH--4.4
MAL MICHAEL-----4.3
TIM NOTTING-----4.3
ROBERT COPELAND-4
ASHLEY McGRATH--4
CHRIS SCOTT-----3.4

they look ok ratings but arent there too many factors oe variables to consider with player ratings?

what if a player's mother is sick in the hospital, things like that can affect his performance. what if his wife just left him? lol it requires way too much research if u ask me. :)

but I wish u the best of luck and I will be interested to see how it goes for you.

Did you get these from those Newspaper ratings you were talking about???

Are you still going to make some adjustments for home ground advantage and head to head records??? If so, it's probably okay.

Yes to all those questions Sportz.
Are you surprised to see Luke Power heading the list? I am.!

And another way it will work is to compare matchups.
So,Knowledge,if two players have equal matchups in ratings and one has lost their mother,do they get a bonus or a penalty.

Sportz,I will look at what each player rated vlast time they played against the upcoming opponent.
Like when Sydney play Brisbane the players usually don't rate as well,so I will be modifying the ratings downward somewhat.This should perhaps take care of the statistical advantages.

And a tip for all AFL punters.
Do not back a team to win by less than a certain margin.Regardless of the improved betting price!

Brrmmm Brmmmm Thats Moeee getting warmed up
Go Mo

What about the fact you have 2 guys on the list that are retired and another one that now plays for collingwood, id be interested to see how they affect your rankings

Hi Fearlesson77.

These ratings are up to Round 21 last year.As I continue inputting data the ratings will change.
So very soon I will have a rating set up until and including the 2004 Grand Final.
So in 2005 The ratings will only apply for the fist round.And the data for that round will then be put in database and each players rating will be modified somewhat,particularly those who have had very few games.Main players will only change their rating by perhaps 0.1 or 0.2 at the most.
I have a rating for all players in the team list,so when the squad is named,I add up the ratings for each player in the squad and that is what I expect the team to score.
But I will be also looking at what the player rated when,and if,he last played against the current opposition and then averaging the two ratings.
Players that have retired will be scrubbed from the database,and those that are playing for different teams will have their ratings transferred to the new team.
First time players without a rating at all will be judged to have a rating of 1/3 the team average.
I'm just trying to get a mechanical thing happening to get a good idea as to the price available being value or not.I've never played football,so can't understand match-ups,shorts and talls,tagging and many other terms.
Home ground advantage is a huge modification that I apply using the "seat of the pants rule".Another one is a landmark game for certain players,or perhaps a death in the family.These things need to be accounted for,so any mechanical type system needs to be manipulated by the human touch.

The way I look at it is that,for example,Michael Voss is out this week.
So with Voss out,and say,Corrie in,one would think such a major change in the team lineup could possibly mean a decrease of about 3 goals or so,as many think that Voss is a 3 goal better player than Corrie.
I figure that the total score would in fact only decrease by about 4 points.
All the possessions that Voss was going to get don't just disappear.They are in fact going to be shared by other players.
And that is how my ratings of Michael Voss of 8.2 compares to Anthony Corrie at 4.2
Not that Voss is a 4 point better player than Corrie,but in the overall team plan he is!

Sportz!
I compared my team rating with my players rating method using the teams that last played and they were almost exactly the same.
So I don't quite know where I am going to improve my tipping then.