My BetFair Lay Adventure
 

I won't have time to follow this closley today, so just thought i make my lay selections to see if they lose and so are successful for me.

I'll assume that my lay will be matched as the odds i will set will be at a premium to the tote odds (by 2.00 units). So this will attract a backer since its good odds for the selection. This is done so I could work out my potential liabilities and so calculate a p/l at the end of the meet. Liability limit is 100~ units. When I have more time, closer to the jump I'd set my odds based on what the history of trades has been so I know what the betfair market has been paying and set my odds accordingly.

tote = tote.com.au

Starting Bank: 1,000

Geelong
WIN only
Race 2:
8-The Lion King
8.50 tote / 10.50 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 63

Race 3:
10-Tan Jugah
12.10 tote / 14.10 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 84.6

Race 5:
1-Furious Dee
9.20 tote
11.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 67.2

Race 6:
6-Muzza's Star
8.20 tote
10.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 61.20

Race 7:
5-O'reilly Tycoon
15.20 tote
17.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 102.20

Total Liabilities: 378.2

Good luck pengo.
IMHO your risk/reward ratio is totally out of whack.

Yeah I'll see how I go over the course of a week.

Also want to try laying the favourite 5m to jump, see how that goes over a week. And if that don't work too well or even if it doesn't, dutch laying the radio tab top 3 selections.

Without consideration of the lay odds, picking horses won't work.

Example - Lion King was $16.50 on Betfair.

Tan Jugah is $26.00

You make no sense....

Lion king didn't win, so my lay was successful.

So long as the lay is successful, then who cares what the odds where?

Yes Pengo, you are correct, but you are missing the point of the maths being flawed.

You can trial something at $1.10 for every selection and you'll win, but the real world price will break you.

Yes, the horse lost and you won, but just one of those horses winning at the real price will strip all the profit from the losers, because you estimated an unreal price.

You might have a winner free day, but even 7 days down the track just one winner at $75.00 instead of $20 will kill the bank.

Don't forget that you are also inflating the amount won, instead of $6.00 for a liability of $100, you'll only win $2.00 for a liability of $100 because the price is so much more.

Yes, I appreciate this but I'm expecting a high success rate with my lays. Also I would not lay a 75-1 shot, as I am keeping in mind I don't want to kill the bank. You guys keep saying but what about the 100/1 shot but I'm not laying a 100/1 shot coz I can't at a stake of 6. Also you forget that my max liability on any selection will be 100~.



How do you figure I get back 2 when I get paid 6 (or slightly less after commission)? At all times I stake 6 for a max liability of 100 for any selection.

This is just a really rough guide to see if I can be successful over the course of a week. You have to walk before you can run, I'll worry about the odds later.

Here's a real example:

Favourites lose 13.65% at TAB prices,so IF you could lay at TAB prices you would win 13.65% less commission.
You would hypothetically make 8.65% return over time.

What happens when you lay just 10% over those odds at Betfair, you now have a base of 3.65% profit, less commission - you now lose 1.65% laying them. A lot of favourites trade at well over 10% better odds, especially the easy favourites in the market.

Now scroll down to outsiders, the odds are way over 20%,waaay over.

It doesn't add up to profit, you will make money for a while, but the end result is big loss.

I'll keep that in mind.
Thanks

I see what you guys mean about being matched, my selection for race 7 is showing some stupid odds for the lay.

I think I'll need to play with the outside chances (5/1-7/1) so I could stake 10 so that, after 10 plays I have made a "liability buffer" (e.g. profit is now 100 so if one horse loses before I make another 100 [10 consecutive successful lays] I got back to break even).

Pengo, sorry it's hard to come across as helping when someone is dipping their toe in for the first time, it comes across as bagging you, and that is certainly not the intention.

I just don't want you to make the same mistakes as hundreds including me made when first laying horses.

There are plenty of horses to lay at TAB prices or better especially today ;)

I'd rather lay a 20/1 TAB horse at $19.00 on Betfair than lay a $9.00 TAB horse at $15.00 on Betfair.