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some say keep away from rain affected tracks do your homework & they can work for you |
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Absolutely Backing & laying |
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Referencing reliable speed maps very important imo. Not only to predict the running position of each horse in the field and likely pace of the race but also to establish if those drawn inside or outside will be advantaged or disadvantaged. |
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Likely race pace very useful if you fancy a backmarker |
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Evidence ??? |
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Common knowledge & from my punting experience, backmarkers rely on a fast race tempo, to do best ?? |
..early days
..fine tuning a simple little system mainly based on jockey / horse / track condition (horse) strike rates ..a few other filters including must be fancied in the market |
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..reference to a reliable speed map a big plus |
Jake, what speed map would you say is the most reliable?. I always see a few different ratings amongst them as I search for a good one. Thanks.
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Can I just put this out there for anyone to answer if they can. I have a couple of methods that I use that rely on speed maps. The problem I run into is that different speed maps give conflicting results. It is not uncommon to get a runner being listed on one site as a leader and on another site be listed as on pace and in some cases be listed as a midfield runner. I really need to get the most reliable one. If that means paying for one then so be it. I just want one that can be trusted to be accurate. I'd appreciate anyone's advice on this. Thanks.
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..piratebird ..speed map checking for me happens towards the end of my review process for all my "systems" so this aspect not super critical ..1. check that likely pace & placement for my selection/s is positive ..2. also reconsider non-selections..in the market..& look suitably placed ..sometimes as a result of point 2..I have a saver or two ..at the moment I'm mainly using the free one provided by racenet ..am finding it generally reliable ..there's a few other freebie sites I'm yet to look at more closely & haven't touched on payed sites ..hope this helps |
Thanks Jake. To explain what I meant about different maps, I have just had a look at Race 5 in Ascot tomorrow and Bel My Pago is showing up as a Mid fielder with Racenet and Sportsbet but as a Backmarker with Racing & Sports. As I never back backmarkers it looks like I will be leaving this race alone. I suppose if you just kept to the same speed map provider all the time it would even itself out. It's just a bit of a worry that's all. Thanks again for your reply, I appreciate it.
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Interesting. Just had a look at the replay of Bel My Pago's only two runs over tomorrows race distance. Settled no worse than midfield & not that far off the pace. If you also look at racenet's closing speed map you'll notice Bel My Pago clearly in front. As I said, interesting!
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Thanks Al, and yes I did see the closing speed on Racenet. My only qualm about closing speeds is that the horse has to be in the position to get a clear run and be able to use that burst of speed. Maybe I should just leave the R&S site alone and go with Racenet. Thanks for your reply.
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Hi Piratebird,
I also use the Recent Speed maps. One thing to note the Speed map does change with scratchings. I have seen horses that are listed as a Pace runner but listed as a Mid field runner after scratchings. Important to check close to the race. Try Try Again |
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Not much of a speed map fan but might take another look. Thanks jake |
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Roger that! Thanks Try Try Again |
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I've found the 'Giddy Up' speed maps useful. They cover all three race codes. |
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Giddy Up? free or pay? |
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You'd have to do reasonably well in your punting to afford it when there are free sources of same. |
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TABtouch, free |
Thanks Sands
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Their mobile app |
Anybody do horse v horse (in same race) comparisons as part of their selections process? Just started evaluating this feature freely available for WA horse racing on the Customer Racing Information Service (CRIS) website. You can compare an individual horse performance against other horses in the same race. Or you can compare all horses in the race against each other. Might potentially be a simple system. Any other sites do this for other state racing?
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http://au.racingstats247.com/h2h/ :) |
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When reviewing head-to-heads it's important you focus more on the encounters on a same or similar track condition to "todays" race |
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And I would think more emphasis on encounters over similar distances to todays race |
Dual Acceptors. Wouldn't punt them all but maybe filter no. 1
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Hi shaven. Is that dual acceptors for just the raceday only? |
Plenty of potentials these days if you look at a six day window
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Sorry horsewithnoname, been on a nice long holiday. If you mean that the horse is a dual acceptor just for the particular day you are looking at (& not any other race in the near future), then the answer is no. |
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That would work for me. |
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No worries. Thanks. |
Hi Reinz
That 247 race site is very good. They have a thingo there, rating the horse in "Top 3%." Do you know what that means? The rating pts, of the "Top 3%" seem to be very accurate. |
Starting point for a simple system:
Look at each runner last five starts If they started at 10/1 or less, at two of those starts or more & are 20/1 or over today, take a closer look |
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just noticed that Warrnambool r6n11 winner at big odds last Tuesday fitted your criteria for a closer look interesting ;) |
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Adding third-up from a spell works for me. |
I find systems don't work. Fluctuations kill them.
They will work fine for a few days then completely fail. |
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Works for me. |
Okay not many winners pay $20+.
How many non winning horses per race do you back to find the winner " that works for you"? This Saturday at Sandown there were no $20 winners. Newcastle there were no $20+ winners. Doomben no $20+ winners Ascot might have been 2 qualifiers? The system might have merit if you stick to female only, maidens and 1,000m races. |
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