NFL Week 6 Tips and suggested bets
 

Here are the tips for Week 6 of the NFL using the Power Rankings -
Predicted winning side in capitals with predicted winning margin and predicted probability of winning(%) alongside.

CLEVELAND @ baltimore 9 61%
minnesota @ CHICAGO 18 71%
new york giants @ DALLAS 7 58%
carolina @ DETROIT 15 68%
washington @ KANSAS CITY 6 57%
ATLANTA @ new orleans 16 69%
jacksonville @ PITTSBURGH 8 60%
miami @ TAMPA BAY 16 69%
CINCINATTI @ tennessee 16 69%
new york jets @ BUFFALO 2 52%
new england @ DENVER 1 51%
san diego @ OAKLAND 4 55%
houston @ SEATTLE 24 78%
st louis @ INDIANAPOLIS 29 85%



Suggested bets -

These are based on a 5% overlay with the first price the "rated" price which is the minimum dividend required to back that team and the second figure being the current odds available on the NSW TAB. The % overlay is displayed in brackets.


Cleveland 1.67 2.75 (65%)
Chicago 1.43 1.55 (8%)
New York Giants 2.45 2.50 (2%)
Detroit 1.49 1.80 (21%)
Washington 2.39 2.70 (13%)
Cincinatti 1.47 1.53 (4%)
New York Jets 2.13 2.35 (10%)
New England 2.09 2.45 (17%)
Oakland 1.86 2.10 (13%)


As the above table illustrates, the biggest anomaly in the market this week is with Cleveland being a 65% overlay. The model rates them at a 1.67 chance (with a 5% overlay) with the bookmakers offering at least 2.75.

Good luck with your bets.

Cheers
ATC