Big Value Favourites Betting System
 

This simple betting system has produced interesting results whenever I have checked it over the last 30 or so years.

The aim is to back winning favourites at odds higher than the long term winning percentage of favourites.

It operates on Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide Saturday metropolitan meetings.

Using a good form guide with reliable pre post betting odds, back the favourite that has the highest pre post betting odds. If there are 2 favourites selected by this rule, then back them both. With 3 or more give the meeting a miss.

What I have noticed is that actual betting odds can vary quite wildly from these pre post odds.

As I am going into hospital for a few days - last time it turned into 9 days - I will probably be pretty quiet on the Forum and also unable to answer any questions, as I will most likely be very tired and sleeping most of the time when I do get back home.

Here are Saturday's results using the Winning Post for the odds.

Randwick:
Santa Ana Lane 2nd. $10.00

Sandown:
Zahspeed 1st. $5.20

Doomben:
Dee Nine Elle 2nd. $3.70

Morphettville:
Gingerboy: 3rd. $2.70

Cheers Neil. All the best mate.

I like some of these little systems, maybe combine a couple together, this one with the shortest priced fav would give you plenty of action, i notice just about all are set around the Sat racing, this is a good idea but would be nice to test some of these mid week, just need that reliable online prices to use, have to work on that.

Good luck in the hospital, Neil.


Your post reminded me of some of the work that Rinconpaul (and beton?) shared on the forum. Somewhere around here there is:

* a "% Win SR Ready Reckoner" spreadsheet: given the price of the favourite, it gives each price-ranked runner's historical chance of winning. That is, if a favourite is $2 it has on average a 42% chance of winning (bookmaker overround presumably), the 2nd fave has a 20% chance of winning, and so on. Per Neil's post, he's really looking for favourites priced at greater than 30% ($3.33) - the long-term odds of favourites winning (ignoring field size/race class) - and limited his outlay to the most extreme chance (the longest-priced favourite at a race meeting). With the Reckoner you could also search for 2nd/3rd/4th faves longer than their historical odds. I think Rinconpaul's prices were from Betfair and he'd be endeavouring to react just before the jump, rather than far ahead of time. (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...=ready+reckoner)

* a "StartingPrice_vs_WinSR" word document. For a given field size it gives the historical strike rate of each price ranking. So in an 8-horse field, you could be betting on 3rd faves if their price is greater than $5.97, to stay ahead of historical trends

* "Place Ready Reckoner": For the favourite in a given field size, back if its place odds are longer than the historical average (e.g. in an 8-horse field where the fave is in the "average" range of $1.80-$3.40, only back the favourite for a place so long as you're getting more than $1.37)


I never used the files myself (were the others from the monster "DNA of a Longshot Winner" thread?) and I think Rinconpaul was more concerned with the lay side of things, so be cautious and happy hunting :)

Thanks.

Here are Saturday's bets using the Winning Post again.

Caulfield:

8/1 Charmed Harmony $6.00
9/8 Sunday Escape $6.00

Randwick:
6/3 Target In Sight $4.40

Morphettville:
8/3 October Date $6.50
8/20 Segregation $6.50

Here are today's bets using this morning's Herald Sun newspaper.

Caulfield
No bets as Sunday Escape, Ruettiger and Shades Of Bella were all $6.00 favourites in R9.

Randwick
1/7 Touch Sensitive $4.80
6/11 Music Magnate $4.80

Morphettville
No nets as Howard Be Thy Name in R7 and October Date and Segregation in R8 were all $5.50.

Music Magnate won at $5.50.

Results for 23rd. April using Saturday morning's Herald Sun for odds.

Caulfield
Invincible Heart $4.80 -
Stoker $4.80 -

Rosehill
Impending $4.20 1st. $4.00, TF $5.00
Gretna $4.20 -

Morphettville
No bets as there were 3 selections, but Silent Edition won at $3.10, TF odds $4.00

Selections for 30th. April using Saturday morning's Herald Sun for odds.

Caulfield:
9/1 Entre Nous

Doomben:
7/1 Too Good To Refuse
7/5 Cylinder Beach

Morphettville:
7/10 Rationality

[QUOTE=Neil]Selections for 30th. April using Saturday morning's Herald Sun for odds.

Caulfield:
9/1 Entre Nous - Unplaced

Doomben:
7/1 Too Good To Refuse - 2nd
7/5 Cylinder Beach - 1st $4.70 Unitab

Morphettville:
7/10 Rationality - unplaced