G'day All,

I was wondering if I could get a few alternative opinions regarding Average Prize Money per race and using it as a selection filter.

I currently use Average Prizemoney as a 'culling' filter to reduce field sizes, but my recent results are drawing me to question its validity.

It seems to come unstuck when a race contains several highly rated (Zipform) up and coming horses who have low Average Prizemoney per start.

Any thoughts from anyone?

LB

I take no notice of average prizemoney. Don't even check it out. You have mentioned one of the drawbacks. There are others including huge prizes for various restricted entry races.
It also misses out on form - a horse finishing sixth, beaten only a length and getting no prizemoney in a million dollar race will not appear so flash compared to the winner next start.

Mr Logic,

Thanks for your reply. I know that Average PrizeMoney per start should not be considered in isolation of other stats, but I had not thought about omitting it altogether.

Are there any others out there that don't use this race stat?


LB

Luckyboy,

My research shows that the use of any ONE particular filter is usually not particularly beneficial.

If you combine "Average Prizemoney" with "last start distance beaten" and "drop or rise in prizemoney for this race compared with last race", then you have a fairly effective guide.

In my opinion :wink:

The importance of each individual factor or filter in relation to a horse's winning chances is the age old puzzler! :eek:

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-03-31 11:49 ]

Chrome Prince,

Thanks for your insight. I have utilised AVP as a selection filter along with the Zipform rating and last two start placings.

I like your idea of distance beaten last start. With regard to the prizemoney rise or drop would it suffice (in your opinion) to use the 'class rating' suplied in Sportsman as an alternative?


LB

[ This Message was edited by: Luckyboy on 2003-03-31 11:56 ]

Luckyboy wrote:

> I was wondering if I could get a few
> alternative opinions regarding Average
> Prize Money per race and using it as a
> selection filter.

If you take note of Malclom Knowles, he will say that Prizemoney should never be ignored and ranked average prizemoney is superior to ranked total prizemoney.

He published a booklet that describes the relationship between prizemoney and other factors, i.e., last start finishig position, distance, field size, class etc.

The booklet may still be avilable through Wiz Books, who were last know to be located in the ACT.

Pasmaroo,

Thanks for your advice. I will look up the bookshop details in my latest edition of the Wizard.


LB

luckyboy,
one of the problems with average prizemoney is that it includes bonuses which certain qualified horses earn, thus distorting the actual prizemoney earned purely from the race....cheers, noel

Luckyboy,

By all means use the class rating in the Sportsman.

The point is that AVP is useful when filtered and combined with OTHER factors.

I have found that rise in race prizemoney includes many winners at longer prices, while a significant drop in race prizemoney has a much higher strike rate with smaller average win dividend. It just depends on the approach you wish to take.

Another little factor is where the bulk of the prizemoney came from...was it a one off win two preparations ago, or was it a consistent build up each preparation. This can also be a huge difference in the end result.

Good Luck.

Chrome Prince,

Many thanks for your advice. I spent a little bit of time last night re-looking at my filters and found approximately 52% of winners come from the top 6 ranked horses according to AVP (measured Saturday only last 18 months).

Therefore, I would suggest that AVP is probably a secondary filter. Your thoughts?


LB