Unders and overs revisited
 

I was looking at the AAP prepost market and back analysing the results of 1M+ the somebody had summarised.
These had been linked to the tote prices.
I was under the belief that the tote market is a 85% market. Prepost is generally over 100%. Thus to get a 100% market the prices must ease. However some firm and some stay the same. meaning that those that ease must ease longer.

So I started looking at the number that firmed. And found that significantly more firmed than eased. which put my initial thoughts out of whack.

Then I searched for an answer and had the eureka moment. The AAP prepost are the odds expressed as currency and the Tote prices are not odds but a formula based on the market less the rake. Two totally different things. However the tote price is a reflection of what the market thinks the odds are.

Hence a $2.50 PP odds has to match with a $2.10 tote odds. This being $2.50 chance minus 15% minus the round. Hence the pp odds to tote price
are always going to be unders. Which in turn explains there is a significant parity between unders and overs (It is not until you get to the $40-50 band that the unders equal the overs).

Food for thought and discussion. Also adds to the fact that unders are more profitable than overs.

What ?

I'm with darky I don't exactly follow what your saying. I think what you mean is AAP prepost market is sometimes up around the 150% mark while the Tatts market is usually around the 115-120% mark. So that way the AAP prices are generally speaking going to be lower than the Tatts prices most of the time due to the framed market %'s.

If your going to compare the AAP prepost, any other prepost or your own ratings to Tatts for example you should always re-calculate them to a 118% market or thereabouts. I do mine to 115% just for ease but then you can actually compare them appropriately (apples for apples we say at work) instead of comparing a banana (150% market) to an apple (118% market).

I hope the above is what you were basically getting at, otherwise i've misunderstood your post more than i thought.

Evajb.
Basically we have to compare apples for apples. A tote market of 100% -15 and overround comes to circa 120%. the AAP at 150%+ has to reduce the odds to be equal. Decrease the odds - increase the $. Yet across the board the $ is decreased. What do we do? maybe we have to reframe the PP first before using them.

Reckon you have answered your own question there.

I don't always agree with the stuff PaulD01 puts out, but I do agree with this quote re the AAP Pre Post,"It is nothing more than a subjective/predictive rating that has been adopted in order to provide something to the masses to facilitate TAB turnover"

For me it's purely a marketing tool and you can convert it into any percentage you like, it counts for nothing. It's a hype tool. Most punters haven't got a clue who to Back in a race. Think about it, a bunch of brickies knock off early, call into the club to have a drink and a punt, pick up a Tele, look at the prepost and go, "Yeah, this 2nd favourite looks like a bit of value" and Back it? The whole pre post scenario doesn't rate as a tool in the kit of a serious punter, IMO.

Tend to agree RCP but does that in itself make it a tool? i.e. ignore the top 3 favourites according to AAP as they are overbet and look at say the 4th to 6th favourites?

I don't use their ratings at all myself, not currently anyway but just food for thought. The way I approach everything now is to look for the underbet profitable angles not the overbet profitable angles or the overbet high strike rates (hope that makes sense).

RCP As a layer you should find this a valuable tool for exactly the reasons you state here. The first five in the PP control 80%. But the top PP only wins 25.9%.

The top PP is only the tote fav 54% of the time and accounts for only 18.8% with the other 7.1% when it is in the other 4 top positions. Do the maths right and you will always lose backing and always win laying.

I agree with you Josh, you need to identify situations where the market consistently under or overbets a runner and build a system around it. For me it's meant becoming a student of price, not form, and how price, particularly oncourse bookmakers price interacts and behaves. It reflects a lot of the bad traits of punters, that you can go the opposite on?

That para is full of gems, RP. But how is price not a function of form, in some respect? i.e. the Like all markets, prices being a measure of value based largely on what is known, already disseminated - form being the most obvious example??

LG