NFL Week 13 Tips
 

Here are my computer generated tips with %chance for week 13 -


Cincinnati @ BALTIMORE 73%
MINNESOTA @ Chicago 63%
NEW ENGLAND @ Cleveland 74%
Arizona @ DETROIT 65%
Tennessee @ INDIANAPOLIS 80%
BUFFALO @ Miami 68%
Carolina @ New Orleans 50%
San F @ ST. LOUIS 76%
ATLANTA @ Tampa Bay 67%
Denver @ SAN DIEGO 69%
Green Bay @ PHILADELPHIA 78%
NY GIANTS @ Washington 64%
PITTSBURGH @ Jacksonville 65%
Dallas @ SEATTLE 61%
Houston @ NY JETS 72%
Kansas City @ OAKLAND 57%

Out of curiosity what formula do you use?

Benny

Houston Texans +7 @ New York Jets
Cincinnati Bengals +7 @ Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots -11.5 @ Cleveland Browns
Arizona Cardinals +6.5 @ Detroit Lions
Tennessee Titans +11.5 @ Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings -7 @ Chicago Bears
Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons +1.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers +11.5 @ St Louis Rams
Carolina Panthers Scr @ New Orleans Saints
Kansas City Chiefs Scr @ Oakland Raiders
Denver Broncos +3 @ San Diego Chargers
New York Giants +2.5 @ Washington Redskins
Green Bay Packers +5.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Dallas Cowboys +7 @ Seattle Seahawks

Probabilities are obtained by using the differential in "power" ratings of the two sides in question with HA (home field advantage) also taken into account. The power ratings are based on the previous form of each particular team with several performance factors taken into account and derived from a mathematical model that optimises and reduces the error of these ratings. The power ratings change from week to week depending on present as well as past results to best predict the outcome of each match.

This week my model predicts New York Giants, Atlanta and Oakland as favourites to win(>50%) with the first two of these sides playing away from home the market(Betfair) has them all as underdogs(>2.0). My model rates them as 64%,67%,57% chances of winning respectively.

One thing the model does not take into account is each team's line up from week to week. An obviously important factor not used in the calculations.

I'm still having a problem in trying to work out my power ratings. Is there a formula that I could use with an example.

Benny