Arb between Betfair and Crownbet
 

One for Pat123 probably, but is it possible to arb between the exchange and their bookmaker? Are they treated as completely different entities or linked such that arb opportunities will never arise? Not that I've ever considered it, but it poses an interesting question?

The reply posts are really stimulating?

But to add to my first post, as I enjoy talking to myself, I did the comparison today i.e. Crown Bet fixed vs Betfair Lay price. I was surprised at the amount of arbs up to 7.5% on the favourite! Beauty, that's a good start. Now seeing as I live in the A.C.T. I'm eligible for $150 in free bets. Beauty, 2nd part's good too.

Only one small hiccup possible? As a high turnover Betfair client, if I arb to Crown Bet (same owner, keeping the money in house), will they limit my account???

You didn't see my reply? ;)

But seriously, I know they are new but are they going to be just like the other bookies and will end up limiting accounts?

Yeah, I just woke up out of my dream, and read the T&C's:


CrownBet “reserve the right to close, impose limits on or remove products from Your Account without providing reasons or notice.”

"without providing reasons or notice". That's nice of them. You'd think they'd have to tell you something though.

Arb using Centrebet fixed odds if you can. If you're banned and have a big enough bank roll and generally gamble on racing anyway this might be worth a shot. Just use Centrebet as a guide but only do the back side of all arbs you see. Back at the highest price you can get at the time of the arb, through whatever bookmaker. I've now got stats since August, 2013 and my net position on betfair (lays only) is over $100k in losses. My stats say when the lay price of an arb is between 1.01-8.00 I have lost overall in that period on the lay side, so you could just stick to that odds range. Over lay odds of around 8.00+ the lay side has been in the positive so you could forget backing if you wanted to with lay odds (of arbs) greater than 8.00. I don't think there is a bookmaker I've lost with when it comes to arbs. I'm always depositing into betfair.

This is moreso for international racing. Betfair lays though are still losing overall with Aus racing.

I think it's a combination of getting on at the highest price you can + following smart money/market movers. I don't know if close to 2 years of stats is enough but it's pretty interesting what I've found in the process. Saying that, i still don't have the balls to do the back side only of arbs. One day i might create a little side account and do 10% back stakes.

Pat, for AUS, do you use Dy####ic's platform wherein you can observe all the prices incl Betfair and place directly from there? OR do you have Gruss and scrape bookmakers to the same excel sheet. OR do the whole thing at a glance of multi screens?

Just confused as you say use Centrebet as a guide and find best price? Cheers for the advice though.

I don't use any software. I just have an ultrawide monitor with split screen and use my eyes. I'm pretty fast at scanning. Basically what i've found is the back side of Centrebet's arbs have won significantly overall in that period. I've been keeping track. I guess its why they hate arbers even if you're losing overall. If you see an arb on centrebet but you have been banned from fixed odds, then back the same horse elsewhere at the best price you can. Forget laying altogether (this is if you're fine with risk and gamble anyway). Just my 2 cents from what i've found over time. I rarely ever deposit into bookmaker's accounts. Always withdrawing. Betfair is the one that constantly needs top ups and this has been consistent since i started. Hope that helps.

might as well talk to you today as I can't put a bet on with BF. That last post reconfirms what you've been saying, but it's the dynamics of placing the Back bet I'm confused about.

OK, you've got a split screen (me too x4) plus a monitor with live vision adjacent. One screen must be Betfair, another Centrebet, but if they've banned or restricted you, you need to have at least 3 other bookmaker/ totes to be able to find an equivalent price. That's 5 screens open. You spot an arb, you glance across 3 of those screens find the highest, click on the highest one, enter your stake and selection to place the bet, confirm it and then somehow duplicate that entire process over at Betfair (if arbing) and pray the arbs still there? Not saying it can't be done but software could certainly assist you.

That's why I suggested Dy####c, although you can't place the Betfair leg through them and they don't do UK as far as I remember. The mad scramble to get both legs on, would send me bonkers. But if you've been able to do it for this long now, well done.

Yea it's easier for me to do a quick scan, back then lay. You have to use good judgement when it comes to getting the lay down. If the odds are too close and there's not enough liquidity, don't risk it. This involves discipline lol.

I just have one screen but multiple tabs open.

I'd be up $61k this year if I just backed.