Betfair SP / WAP / Morning WAP
 

Did a study on the races with the most liquidity - UK races for January.
Elsewhere there are missing WAP and Morning WAP prices.
Australian races half the time never record these!

But it will demonstrate how misleading PPWAP figures can be.
Assume 5% full commission rate.
Covers 613 races.

Lay the field at Betfair SP -$507.04
Lay the field at PPWAP -$70.77
Lay the field at Morning WAP -$136.40 (before scratchings)

Lay the favourite at Betfair SP +$444.02
Lay the favourite at PPWAP +$403.51
Lay the favourite at Morning WAP -$338.45 (before scratching deductions)

Lay drifting favourites at Betfair SP -$158.42
Lay drifting second favourites at Betfair SP -$243.42

Lay firming favourites at Betfair SP +$602.44
Lay firming second favourites at Betfair SP +$148.85

Lay firming first and / or second favourites at Betfair SP +$751.29

I used the liability of $30 for this demonstration.
As the very most you could lose per race is $30 I multiplied this by 613 races to get accurate turnover figures.

Turned over $18,390
If you layed firming first and / or second favourites (the best profit), you made 4.08% POT.

Such slim margins explain the long runs of bad results, the need for bet size to be a very low percentage of overall bank, and why bookies are raking it in on drifters given their market percentages and banning any savvy punters who get on firmers early doors.

[QUOTE=If you layed firming first and / or second favourites (the best profit), you made 4.08% POT.

Such slim margins explain the long runs of bad results, the need for bet size to be a very low percentage of overall bank, and why bookies are raking it in on drifters given their market percentages and banning any savvy punters who get on firmers early doors.[/QUOTE]


Something not gelling here CP, a juxtaposition perhaps? Your survey says it's profitable to LAY firming favourites....so anyone Backing firming favourites would be losing during this month and Backing drifting favourites presumably doing better,...... right?

BUT then you say the Bookies are raking it in on drifters? Wouldn't it be the reverse? Why would they ban punters who Back firmers, as they, the Backers, lose?

I'm sure you'll clear it up. Despite that thanks for the survey. I call 4% an excellent return. 4% is better than bank interest, but given you're probably only been exposed to say 12 x liability drawdown it'd be +$751 return on $360 ever risked, and because you're continually recycling your money, the return is turbocharged.

What was the max drawdown, if I might ask? I presume it was for only Gallops and no Dogs?

As I was surveying the BFSP compared with the early prices and calculating returns at BFSP, I guess the operative word is firmed rather than firming.
Anyone backing firmed favourites at BFSP would be losing money, and they'd be losing money with the bookies at SP. However, those savvy dudes who take Top Fluctuation or early fixed odds on a regular basis would be doing better with the bookies than layers at BFSP.
It was only for UK gallops and I didn't bother about maximum drawdown.

P.S. Bookies clean up on drifters because they are always (as a group) such poor odds compared with Betfair, even after commission.

Cheers for that CP, all good stuff. I want to run a bot to record results for a period. Any clues on how you programed a firmer/drifter? ....maybe a 10% price (not implied probability) increase/decrease over say 10 mins?