I think there are two interesting points here.

1. Yes there is a defined set of bets per system which tells you if its workable or not. Its all based on both statistics and common sense.

2. Backfitting is an interesting problem for any system punter doing research. If you understand how to do step 1 properly then it doesn't matter. The problem is that 99.99% of punters don't know how to determine the viability of a system going forward.

They should have a fair idea of the liklihood if using sensible form factors
and stake correctly (i.e Kelly )
cheers

Here is the thing though.
In this day and age almost everyone has some sort of Data Base including the Racing Journalists so why not take advantage of their expertise.
I.e In the Tipster Poll if they have only 2 horses on the top line then the indication is that these 2 are considered the best 2 for that race.
One then only has to get a minimum $3 about both to make a good profit.
Of course not all will be at that minimum price so why not just take the better priced.
Over a period it should even itself out.

My belief is that we can outsmart ourselves looking for complications.

Cheers
darky

One small difference between the system you've just posted and my system is that mine shows a profit over the past 25+ years. The system you just put up would lose. No offence meant, but those types of systems are based on the office junior doing the tips.

They have to tip in every race, we don't, as far as ratings go everyone has there own perspective of what form factors are important, that's what makes the difference with good ratings and average one's.

Hi UB,

Any chance you could share the number?

Tipsy,
They used to be before .the advent of Computer ratings but not now.

My belief is that overhandicapping leads to the poor house based on my 40 years as a successful punter.

We dont have to bet in every race - only the standout selections (the key to my success as a punter.)

Cheers

Why is it that computer ratings in the newspapers have such an abysmal record? There are many days where there's not one winner. How do journo's overcome this hurdle when it's their own newspapers that publish these (useless) ratings ..... do they go against their own newspaper?

By the way.
Isn,t it great that we are finally coming back to sharing Handicapping ideas like we used to do.
The last couple of years I,ve felt we have been taken over by fantasy posts.

Cheers
darky

Now what will win the 6th at Wyong - the 3 or the 5.