Winning % for odds-on Favs
 

Realise that the SR for all favourites is approx 30%, but was wondering if anyone had any idea of the SR for those favourites that are odds-on (i.e. less than $2)

Market percentage
 

I don't have the stats at my fingertips, but it is my view that the dividend of the favorite is a pretty good representation of how it will run. Eg a $2 favourite on the tote represents about 42.5% of the market so I would give it 40-45% chance of winning the race. A horse at $1.5 would represent a 60% chance.

Win strike rate 54%

Return on 5981 bets = 94%.

Same old scenario.

Kenchar, I agree though, I would have expected a bit less than 6%LOT, but can I ask what were those divies?? i.e. now that we can place a bet at BEST TOTE, or Top Fluc it can easily make that difference to swing it to a POT.

Also remember that we can also place a bet stipulating a minimum return, which opens up all kinds of other opportunities??

PP,

They are actually Pommie stats, but I cant see how they would differ much from us as racing all over the world seems to have very very similar stats.

Have a bopeep at the the site it's quite interesting.

http://www.adrianmassey.com/flfav/index.htm

Thanks for the info guys--that bloke in England needs to get a life I think

Odds-on metro race favourites:

51.40% Strike Rate
12.79% Loss On Turnover. (TAB Prices)

Hi!
You are right there. Fancy spending your time doing that stuff!?? But then again someone might be saying the same thing about us?? Hope not!

Some local stats. (Vic TAB)
According to my database there were 7203 favs with starting price <= $2.00. There were 3618 winners which is almost 50 %, for a return of $6512.70.
Which is about 10% LOT.
Proves what we knew!! Forget about the favs!
Cheers!

I think Adrian Massey HAS a life. I have used his site for months and it is all pretty much automated. Also, he never joins in the, sometimes meaningless, discussions on the forum. Basically he runs a system each day (probably has it to run automatically) and the next day's ratings are calculated.

He is a computer guy rather than a punter and has simply left his wonderful system for the likes of us to do what we want with....meanwhile he goes off and runs marathons...maybe THAT is what what we should be questioning.

Anyway, if you look at the stats and use the custom filters you can soon come up with winning ways (based on past results, of course!).