Staking Plea
 

In the first 3 months Jan to March I bet on 130 races for 48 winners for a srike rate of 36.9% using 2 systems only on Sat and public hoilday meetings.

There were a total of 218 selection in those races.

Out--$218.00
in----$263.30

a profit at level stakes of $45.30 A 20.8% ROI

My question is that I''m going to do a dry run on paper using 2 banks of $500 of which one will be a reserve bank and bet 3% of the bank.

Any thoughts on this?

Mad Gambler

Hi Mad Gambler - IMO 3% of bank is a lot. Not because of the actual cash outlay just if you have a bad streak, you'll quickly decimate your reserves.

I've been playing around with staking and bet sizes due to a system I'm developing (see a couple of other threads on this forum re that) and I am finding that a 1% increasing/reducing bet size gives you safety and profitability. Remember, both those things are vital - you'll have bad runs, sure as I'm good lookin'.

Good luck.

If you have a system that works, forget percentage of bank. Fool's paradise.

Just decide what you expect your largest amount of outs or equivalent outs to be over a 12 month period.

By equivalent outs I mean you could have 5 then a winner that pays $4.00 then another 6 losers. At level stakes this is the equivalent of 8 outs.

On your strike rate you are going to say if this system is going to be profitable it will need to be able sustain 30 losers or the equivalent thereof at level stakes.

You are starting with $500.00 500/30 = 16. (approx)

Start at $16. Then when your bank gets to $510, move up to $17. (17 x 30 =510) Then when you get to $540 move up to 18 until you get to 100 dollars(bank of 3000 dollars) or whatever top stake level you reckon is a fair thing.

Then whenever you have an excess over 3000, that's profit.

30 might not be enough losers to allow for but much over that and you just have to say this selection method has problems.

If you bet percentage of bank you can you can support far to many losers.

Each to their own buts that way I see staking.

How do I calculate the run of outs.


Mad Gambler

No set way. But would you say that if you had 30 losses that your selection method was the goods?

You could look at all your winners by less than a length and classify them as losers and mulyiply this new numbers of losers by 2.5 and see what your max run of outs is on your so far sample.

To me that should give you a within reason figure of what you can expect to carry.

Just say you do start at $16.00 And your 500 dollars does vanish. At that point you can decide whether it is worth putting another $100.00 up (six losers) or that you have gone far enough with your selection method.

To give you an idea of what I mean, you work out how many losers you can have at 5 percent starting at 500 dollars. You'll find that it is a ridiculous amount.

Number of expected losers is flawed because how many losers can you expect?

Really the most accurate thing is using the "maximum drawdown", ie maximum drop from the top level of your bank.

I have been testing a system which over two years and 6000 bets, with a strike rate of 26%, and had a max drawdown of 113 bets. That means that the worst drop from the previous maximum was 113 bets. If you're betting 3% of your bank.... 113 bets drop down and your f**ked. And this system wins, by the way, there's no selection problem etc, it's just that the punt and selection methods are volatile. You should allow for and work with this volatility.

Sounds like you have a bit of odds stuff in your strike rate.

Not really - ave div $4.20, s/r 26%... just it went through a bad trot at one point. Punting is really cyclical, must prepare for that.

If I have right, at least approximately you are winning 1 in 4 (well a whisker over) and the dividend is $4.20?

So in your 6000 invested you make $300 in two years. You can do better than with a bank term deposit. Perhaps I have something wrong.

You have it a little wrong. 6000 selections, 26%, $4.20 = around 6500 collect if you only have $1 on each, but who only has $1 on each?? Even if you only have $10 on each you still make $5000 over the two years. Have $100 on each and you make $50,000 in two years.