BHAGWAN
 

Can you give me a run down of the expected run of outs for a 48% strike rate?

Cheers
Mark

Anybody have a formula for this????

tails X10
 

hey mark its a pretty known fact that a coin toss can go ten tosses one way,
i no thats diifrent but we are still talking %%%%and i cant see yours be any different especially if its mechanical process that you use....
cheers..gaz..........

40% = 14 outs
45% =12 outs
50% = 10 outs

Cheers.

Mark, one formula I have seen for calculating longest run of outs is :

'logarithm of 0.005 divided by the logarithm of the probability of failure'

(from Dick Mitchell in Winning Thoroughbred Strategies)

So in your example of 48% strike rate (0.48) the calculation becomes

LOG(0.005)/LOG(0.52) = 8.102314

To a certain extent the question as asked is a bit like 'how long is a piece of string' because the LRO for a given strike rate will increase as the number of bets increases. i.e. in your example the LRO over 500 bets would be 8 or 9 but for a sample of 10,000 bets the expected LRO would extend to 14.

I think the above formula should give you a fair approximation of LRO for your everyday use.

Regards,
Wun

Note : Probability of failure equals 1 minus the probability of success (your strike rate) so 1-0.48 gives the 0.52 used in the equation.

why cant??
 

then the same formula can be used for the longest run of ins..cheers gaz..

Hi guys there is a site called ********************.com where you can download a free program that will simulate any strike rate and give you the run of outs, and much more. It's a great little program and it's free

BLETCH.
 

An excellent programme isn.t it?

Well worth downloading alright.

Cheers.
darky.

Please be aware that my program tells me that it could be laoded with Spyware.

One may have to verify this with the owners of the program.

BHAGWAN....what program tells you that....some programs that scan for spyware regard anything they don't know as spyware.....this program is just a spread sheet with macros.....