Saratoga Samchaz
 

G'day Saratoga,

Good to have you here on the forum and your observations are very interesting.
More to the point...my only experience of American racing was when I have been in L.A, Toronto and Vancouver and had a few bets on the "local" venues.
Specifically, system betting in Australia can be fraught with danger due to our racing on turf and the variable racing surfaces which we encounter. However, in your neck of the woods, racing on dirt is predominant isn't it?
Therefore I would presume that some of the more mechanical selection systems would stand a chance of long-term success wouldn't they?
Maybe you could suggest or outline some tried and true selection methods which may prove successful in the long-term.
I know that time-handicapping is a major factor in the U.S. but here it is not as relable due to the diverse quality of the racing surfaces we punters endure here downunder.
Would appreciate your thoughts and suggestions.

Cheers.

Are you Americans more "understanding and forgiving" for what we, the general Australian betting public percieve to be a poorly ridden/judged ride?
I recollect a recent major race over your way where the well fancied, popular, public fancy was ridden wide all the way and of course, faded and was beaten.
Even the commentator mentioned that in Australia there would have been a vociferous reponse, yet, over there, nothing was said!
Are Aussie punters better informed form students than our American counterparts or do you just accept such happenings as "that's racing?"

Cheers.

Sorry Xanadu, I just found your thread! Thanks for taking an interset in my opines and biases on American (and OZ) racing. I really do think you aussies are more critical of the riders than we are, but we get a chance to back or beat the same riders day after day while your riders travel from track to track, although most of the time they have mounts, it's not like here where it's not uncommon for riders to ride a day card and a night card at a different track. Also, I thnk we've become a little desensitized in the respect that if we get a bad ride, we shrug it off. I don't but some people think your whining if you start screaming about a brutal ride. (man, did I get a bad one from Jerry BAiley of all people last week. he ran up on the fading horse on the rail in front of him twice on the far turn. then opened the rail for Vlazquez to go by. He looked like a 10 pound bug boy(beginning Apprentice). The people who treat it more as a sport and also take it seriously are much more critical than the average fan. I'd like to know where that ride occurred that you saw.

Also, it makes sense about the US racing not flying over there because the time difference makes you decide between handicapping your tracks before the early afternoon starts or wagering on US in the morning, hard to do both. That has sort of been my dilemma as of late, but the Aussie goes very late so I can catch up while they are running. I really think the Aus is mre true to form than American, but I don't know why. By looking at the track maps of Taree and Gundy, I realized that both tracks probably favored inside speed horses because of those tight looking turns and it looks like I was right. Is that the norm for those tracks or was it just coincidental?

TRACK BIAS
Speaking of track biases like these, I have always focused on trying to fjind out how a track is playing before I really make a firm decision. The bias can beat the strongest 1/5 shot going and can make for some nice divs. If you are interested, I'll tip you on some american track biases if you need them. The betting public rarely takes this into account. If you have any biases that stand out or are personal favorites, PLEASE let me know. I sometimes second guess myself when I figure these kind of things out on my own instead of getting some reinforcement. Monday at DelMar 8th race the delmarderby at 1 1/8 mile on turf. A turf course that has been mostly favoring come from behind closers. Bobby Frankel is sending HIGH LIMIT across the country with jockey Edgar Prado to attempt to wire the field. Seems stupid to me but I guess you gotta run em to find out. It seems easier to stay back east and pick a spot somewhere else. He is by no means the favorite in this race but will draw action because of the high profile jockey/trainer combo and the fact Edgar skips the last day of the Saratoga meet to fly cross country. He'll have to beat me. I'll try a closer/stalker like #2 OSIDY #3 EL ROBLAR or #10 SHAMOAN. Probably lean towards OSIDY. The race should go about 10:35 am Tuesday morning for you.

I hate to be long winded all the time but these things take an explanation.

Thanks for the Aussie welcome, mate and keep an eye out for my brother moving to Perth next week.

I also agree that the mechanics of any system should play out better due to the uniformity of our tracks and yes, our racing is about 85% dirt here. The x factor, however in the standardization of our tracks is this. Every dirt track is watered and harrowed every night and morning as well as between every race. If the track superintendent wants to soup the track up he can let it dry out over night and push down the dirt to harden the surface and produce faster times that favor front runners and vice versa. You may notice this here on big days like the Derby and the Breeder's Cup. They want records set and people to take notice. It's not good for the horses and the 1990 Breeder's Cup at Belmont was a prime example with four or five horses breaking down in 2 days. Not good.

So you see, even a dirt track can change without you knowing,but if you do your homework you can check the track's web site to see if they did anything over night.

Here's what I really wanted to tell you before I went off on another tangent.

My buddy wrote a book on handicapping using "speed figures" and "track Variants". he didn't get it published because he said it costs too much but I'd like to read it. Personally, I don't worry about the time of races too much. If the winner runs fast, the field runs fast, if the winner runs slow, the field runs slow. So to me, it only matters how you run, if you close or press the pace, and such. I do look at the fractions to see how it affected the ooutcome of the race ,but the final time means nothing to me. Time only matters in jail-an old racetrack saying. I do love finding horses who had trouble n their previous race. Trip handicapping is one of my main angles, I guess. The stewards reports you have over there are excellent ways to garner invaluable information.

And Xanny, have you ever heard of Andrew Beyer. he's the speed figure guru who now has his numbers published in the racing form for every race. i remember about 15 years ago, i used to say what do I need them for? Now they are the standard of the industry. Just like your power ratings pretty much, but probablly more effective in hcping.

If i remember Adrew come over here once and tried his speed ratings on our tracks and lost big time....mainly because our tracks are so different from one to another

No kidding! Wow, that's pretty wild. I never heard of that, but it's great that pompous know it all got his ass handed to him. LOL