LONNNGGGNGSHOTS
 

Howdy,
Now there seems to be some talk about latley on longys, here is one ive been playing with lately, you people with the flash computer programmes (which i must get soon i think) can run it if you want, its only something ive used for fun but pays really well.
The trick is to find a fav that has got some true opposition, normall paying 4.5-5, races with exposed form, usually later in the day, the next one should be in the area of 5-6 and so on.
I know im going to cop it but this is when i leave the first fav and sometimes second out of calculautions.
I then use that dutch calclator from oztools(can i say that) and take as many runners i can that still makes a good return, optimum ive found is seven.
The first race is worked out as "to bet 100 units"
If it looses the next bet is "to profit from second bet plus return the initial 100 outlay" make sence ?, you just punch in the figures.
A lot of favs win, but alot fall over, so i look for runners between 6 to 35 and sqeeze them in, yesterday after two races (first lost) the winner was 18.5 and the PAPER bet was in profit 500 units with first outlay 47, second was 47+340. I know its hap hazzard and costs would be huge on a long loosing streek but taking seven runners that are big odds, maybe someone who has got nothing to do could run it and see ?

Just a thought, if i ever get my bank to a point that could withstand some punishment i would give it a go!
Just trying to put something into the forum
Cheers Dingo

VR1 Benalla
 

See!!!!!!!!!
First race the 2.2 fav, he didnt win but ol mate at 10s

Go Dingo Go !

VR2 Benalla
 

Here we go!
No 5 pays 9 unitab and seven nsw,
You are a legend boy !
Ill stick my neck on the block,

MR1
 

Leave out no 1

Dutch
2 $14
3 $16
4 $10
7 $14
8 $13
9 $13
11 $19
Total out 100

Gulp !
Time 11:48

Since we are on longshots my fav system is a runner with form 117 or worse that is in the top 5 weights these horses normaly win at good odds

isnt that always the way !
 

OK, now next race is QR1

3 $46
7 $84
4 $34
8 $20
11 $20
2 $101

outlay is 305 + initial 100

see how this goes

well, 5.2 unitab x $34, well just keep at it i guess, a little bit of fun !
Thats interesting Shaun, maybe a filter for me,
See how it goes today, ive got a quiet one so ill keep an ear out for the longies,
See Yas for now and take care

i found one today MR8 10 OAMARU STORM formline 117 in top 5 for weights

If one is going to leave out the 1st & 2nd Favs , be prepared for a run of outs of approx 8 outs in a row if targeting races where the Fav is in this price range .
Sounds weird ,but that is what the stats show.
So if one is doing any sort of progressive betting , one has to have this stat at the back of their mind ,that one day this will happen, if betting against the first 2 Favs.

Cheers.

Easier to lay the fav and have everything else running for you.