The Good plus the Bad = Profit
 

All,

Just something I have been playing with recently for those who can't / don't want to sit in front of the screen all day looking for value.

Everywhere and everyone tells you the value is the key, make sure you are getting a better price than what you think the odds should be, and based on my limited experience I have made come up with heaps of systems that do work and make a consistent small profit but they require you to watch every race to see if the value is there just before the jump.

A technique I have been looking at lately is adding the good with the bad.

For Example ... Take a horse whose current form is very good (113, 333, 321, etc) and place him in a bad situation ( top weight and/or bad barrier draw).

The first instance (Good) finds the horses with a good chance of winning and the second instance (Bad) hopefully adds the value.

I have found a couple of systems that do this now and they seem to have produced a consistent profit for the time periods I have tested.

Anyway thats just my opinion of what I have noticed lately.

Good luck

been observing similar scenarios wemip, those being BAD + BAD where ocasionally the odds should be blowing out the door, but strangely dont...

There you go eh ?? Just found this trawling through some old posts. Not so dissimilar to my post !!!

Moeee, you have been TOUd and your post has been deleted. Please do not flame/bait others and post like a 5 year old. Thank you. Moderator.

You cannot keep doing the same wrong things everyday moeee and expect different results.

Bad Barrier needs to be assessed with assessment of the speed of the race an the track condition.

I have a couple of system with the help of Wesmip that followed this theory but I couldn't stand the run of outs with a strike rate around 15% and avg winners of $8.00

You would have months and month of no profit but then good months. Your stake had to be low.

Jockeys like B.Rawiller and Colless are the key men from taking a bad barrier draw and slotting in nicely where low key jockey with sit at the back or get stuck 3 wide.

I think bad barriers are a good place to start if looking for value. A genuinely good horse will overcome the problem far easier than the market calculates.
I remember following a thread where the writer backed all favs drawn in the widest barrier between $3.00 and $4.20 in the morning paper pre-post. He had 27 consequetive winners although he only had 4-7 bets per week. A fluke? Maybe but it's one ******** of streak, me thinks :)