Ratings to odds!!
 

I know this has been discussed at length but i can;t seem to get it too work.

My ratings are as follows

94.3
80.1
62
88.2
72.8
75.6
84.2
72
86.2
77.6
89.5
80.7
60.6

So i added them all up to get a total. Then divided each seperate rating by the total. And then what??

Cheers,
Matt

Wait no i have found one error. You divide the total by the individual rating not the other way round as i was doing previously. Hmmm now what.

TS,

That's not how you do it. Not if you want an accurate guide anyway.

Do you want to price the whole field or just the main chances. To get a simple accurate guide, I personally think you should probably delete the lower rated runners because their ratings can sometimes throw the others out of whack. I think you could look at only the top half of the ratings. In other words, in a field of 13 as you have, you could look at just the top 7 rated runners and delete the rest.

94.3
80.1
62
88.2
72.8
75.6
84.2
72
86.2
77.6
89.5
80.7
60.6

so, now, you're left with:

94.3
80.1
88.2
84.2
86.2
89.5
80.7

Now, here's the important part. A nice easy way of pricing them from here on is to change the lowest rating (80.1) to ONE, and then work all the rest out from there. So to do that, you'd simply subtract 79.1 from all the other ratings:

94.3 - 79.1 = 15.2
80.1 - 79.1 = 1.0
88.2 - 79.1 = 9.1
84.2 - 79.1 = 5.1
86.2 - 79.1 = 7.1
89.5 - 79.1 = 10.4
80.7 - 79.1 = 1.6

NOW, you add up the total of these new ratings, in this case 49.5 and multiply that by 1.2 (to take into account the other runners in the race). That leaves you with 59.4. You now divide 59.4 by each horse's new rating and there you have it:

59.4/15.2 = $3.90
59.4/1.0 = $59.40
59.4/9.1 = $6.50
59.4/5.1 = $11.65
59.4/7.1 = $8.35
59.4/10.4 = $5.70
59.4/1.6 = $37.10

By the way, I have one question. Do you usually do ratings and is that gap of 4.8 between top and 2nd top rated normal, or is it larger than normal???

I don't normally do ratings and this is just a new system i am trying out. Is 4.8 a lot or something? It is for the waterford crystal so i was expecting miss potential to come out a fair bit in front of the others.

Thanks a lot for that sportz.

Don't know. That's what I was getting at. If you did ratings regularly and could tell me if this was an average gap or not, then it would help me work out if I've come up with an accurate set of prices for you.

TS,

I use a different pricing formula with the weight ratings that I do. If you like, I can work out my weight ratings for the race and use that example to show you how I price mine. I'm not sure that it would work with your ratings system though.

Yeh that would be good if it isn't too much trouble.

Okay, well with my weight ratings, I usually end up with a more compact set of ratings than what you have there, so at the end of this post, you'll see I've made some adjustments to my pricing formula to make it suitable for you to use.

Anyway, as it stands now before I know the final track conditions, this is how my ratings have worked out the race:

1 MISS POTENTIAL - 65.5
4 LIEUTENANT - 63.0
5 NICONERO - 63.0
11 CARGO CULT - 63.0
2 CONSULAR - 61.5
10 ROCKFORD BAY - 60.0
7 SAXON - 60.0
6 NOBLE RED - 57.5
8 LORDS A LEAPING - 55.5
9 UMBER - 55.0
12 STORM ATTACK - 53.5
13 MY GIBREEL - 53.5
3 MODEM - 52.0

Now, to price them, I use the following table to help me:

Margins to Points
Top Rated = 100
0.5 behind = 87
1.0 behind = 75
1.5 behind = 64
2.0 behind = 57
2.5 behind = 50
3.0 behind = 45
3.5 behind = 40
4.0 behind = 36
4.5 behind = 32
5.0 behind = 28
5.5 behind = 24
6.0 behind = 20
6.5 behind = 17
7.0 behind = 14
7.5 behind = 12
8.0 behind = 10
8.5 behind = 9
9.0 behind = 8
9.5 behind = 7
10+ behind = 6
11+ behind = 5
12+ behind = 4
13+ behind = 3
15+ behind = 2
20+ behind = 1

Might look complicated, but it's not really. You simply award the top rated horse in the race 100 points, then you use the table to award all the other horses a certain number of points depending on how many kgs behind the top rated horse they are. For example, my ratings have Lieutenant, Niconero & Cargo Cult all 2.5 kgs behind Miss Potential. The table says that = 50 points. Do that for all runners:

1 MISS POTENTIAL - 100 pts
4 LIEUTENANT - 50 pts
5 NICONERO - 50 pts
11 CARGO CULT - 50 pts
2 CONSULAR - 36 pts
10 ROCKFORD BAY - 24 pts
7 SAXON - 24 pts
6 NOBLE RED - 10 pts
8 LORDS A LEAPING - 6 pts
9 UMBER - 6 pts
12 STORM ATTACK - 4 pts
13 MY GIBREEL - 4 pts
3 MODEM - 3 pts

Now, you simply add up all these points and you get 367. Divide 367 by each horse's score, do a little rounding up or down and you've got the prices:

1 MISS POTENTIAL - $3.70
4 LIEUTENANT - $7.30
5 NICONERO - $7.30
11 CARGO CULT - $7.30
2 CONSULAR - $10.20
10 ROCKFORD BAY - $15.30
7 SAXON - $15.30
6 NOBLE RED - $36.70
8 LORDS A LEAPING - $61.20
9 UMBER - $61.20
12 STORM ATTACK - $91.80
13 MY GIBREEL - $91.80
3 MODEM - $122.30

----------------------------------------------------

Here is the adjustment that I've made to my pricing table to make it more compatible with your ratings method.

Top Rated = 100
-1.0 behind = 87
-2.0 behind = 75
-3.0 behind = 64
-4.0 behind = 57
-5.0 behind = 50
-6.0 behind = 45
-7.0 behind = 40
-8.0 behind = 36
-9.0 behind = 32
-10 behind = 28
-11 behind = 24
-12 behind = 20
-13 behind = 17
-14 behind = 14
-15 behind = 12
-16 behind = 10
-17 behind = 9
-18 behind = 8
-19 behind = 7
-20 behind = 6
-22 behind = 5
-24 behind = 4
-26 behind = 3
-30 behind = 2
31+ behind = 1

Using that table with your ratings we get:

1 MISS POTENTIAL - 100 Pts
2 CONSULAR - 12 pts
3 MODEM - 1 pt
4 LIEUTENANT - 40 pts
5 NICONERO - 5 pts
6 NOBLE RED - 7 pts
7 SAXON - 24 pts
8 LORDS A LEAPING - 3 pts
9 UMBER - 32 pts
10 ROCKFORD BAY - 9 pts
11 CARGO CULT - 50 pts
12 STORM ATTACK - 14 pts
13 MY GIBREEL - 1 pt

The total is 298 pts which leaves your prices looking like this:

1 MISS POTENTIAL - $3.00
2 CONSULAR - $24.80
3 MODEM - $298.00
4 LIEUTENANT - $7.50
5 NICONERO - $59.60
6 NOBLE RED - $42.60
7 SAXON - $12.40
8 LORDS A LEAPING - $99.30
9 UMBER - $9.30
10 ROCKFORD BAY - $33.10
11 CARGO CULT - $6.00
12 STORM ATTACK - $21.30
13 MY GIBREEL - $298.00

Hope all of my rambling has helped in some way. If you think my method is too difficult, then you can use that simple method I showed you in an earlier post.

Good luck with it.

Nah cool thanks for that. My ratings seem to be be too generous to some runners, and very harsh to others. Ie extreme differences in prices.

TS I'd use what Sportz said as a means of pricing. Get your ratings method right then use the method he just outlined, it's basically an adaptation of the Don Scott method of pricing and works very well.