System Test for Melb/Syd Method
 

I have been playing around with this idea for a couple of months and I was wondering if someone with a database could test it.


The rules are:

1. Moonee Valley, Flemington, Randwick, Rosehill tracks only.
2. A track rating of good only.
3. A distance between 122/1400.
4. Must have finished 1,2,3 at its last start.
5. Last start within the last 21 days.
6. Barrier 1 to 6.
7. Win % 25%+
8. Top 5 in average earnings.
9. In the top 3 in prepost betting.

Fred The Punter

You can obtain an inexpensive database yourself simply by clicking here.

Fred,

I haven't the data base to test this and the reason no one is punting their hand-up is PP odds data is rare as hens teeth. You could ask the moderate here if the system tester on sale includes them, but I doubt it will.

What I could suggest is the system will be a loser because of rule 4 [last start placings kill odds]. What would improve things dramatically would be: must have finished within 2 lengths of winner but must have placed 3rd. or worse.

Barrier position could even be left open, as the difference in win rates between BP is tiny, but the odds improve considerably with a wider barrier due to public perception [not fact]. You could even run this system with the rule: Must NOT be in barriers 1 to 7. The odds gained would outway any small barrier disadvantage. For the distances in the system, Flemington is a straight run and barrier position is meaningless.

Have a mess with the system and just try it out for small wagers or with no wager.

For the last 4 years, Saturday only, NSW prices.

Venue Races Bets Wins POT
Moonee Valley 31 45 10 -28%
Flemington 26 29 8 -4%
Rosehill 129 170 44 -24%
Randwick 71 90 18 -46%

Monkeyinjapan

You're welcome...

Monkeyinjapan

Hi Monkeyinjapan.
Just a small tip for anyone wishing to line up their headers with the info below that one has to offer .
I have found that by placing a series of .... or ---- between the info, it stops the system automaticlly realigning itself, which can be frustrating when one is trying to get ones info clearly accross.

Cheers.

Hi Bhagwan,

Thanks for the tip, although I doubt that I'll be doing any testing in the future. The person who asked for the info didn't even have the decency to respond.

Monkeyinjapan

Monkey,

That is a bit rough. The request was made in October, you responded in January so they may on holiday, no longer on forum etc.


BradW

Exactly why I've given up posting system results.

It takes a great deal of time and money to set up an accurate database, and people ask you just to plonk down the results without considering actually investigating it themselves.

Added to that, half the time you get no reply at all.

That's a general comment not aimed at Fred The Punter.

Yes Brad, you're right. I didn't check the date that the original request was made. I only saw the post when it was replied to.

Monkeyinjapan