Percentum's Tips
 

I'm returning from a long spell. Have spent much time seduced by exotics - good when they arrive but not fussed on the droughts in between.
These should be backed win only.
Earlier research produced about 16% profit on turnover based on about 2000 races. The strike rate was around 18%.
Top pick (first horse listed) made about 25% on turnover in that workout.
Bets are in fields of 13-14 (top 2) and 15+ (top 3).
Recent good winner was Doonan Dancer ($100+ in NSW) . Needless to say, I was doing my own thing trying to wring something out of trifectas and missed it. that's what happens when you're a greedy old turnip squeezer.
There can be frustrating runs -well, show me a method where there aren't. Apologies for Jack's Tip - it seemed funny at the time.

Sydney
R2 4 and 13
R8 5, 11 and 4

Brisbane
R2 1 and 3
R5 8, 5 and 15
R6 3 and 8
R7 6 and 11
R8 14 and 7

Adelaide
R3 1 and 6

New Zealand
R6 16 and 2
R7 4 and 8
R8 4 and 13

Good Luck everyone!

Percentum's Late Tips for Perth
 

R6 8, 9 and 4
R7 3, 14 and 5
R9 12 and 2

Good luck.

Summary for Sat Dec 3
 

Bets 32
Outlay $32
Return (NSW TAB) $22.8
Progressive: loss of $9.2

Percentum's Tips for Sunday 4 December 2005
 

Canberra
R6 14 and 12

Murray Bridge
R7 5, 2 and 3
R8 4 and 10

Swan Hill
R6 3 and 2
R7 4 and 1
R8 1 and 7
R9 1 and 9

Launceston
R6 1 and 3

Western Australia
R8 9, 7 and 2

Good Luck

SUMMARY AND PROGRESSIVE Sunday 4 December 2005
 

Summary for Sunday 4 December 2005

Bets 22
Outlay $22
Return (NSW TAB) $40.4

Progressive
Outlay $54
Return $63.2
Profit $9.2

Percentum,

Nice results today.

Do you use level staking in the races ? What if there is a short priced fav ?

Thanks Wes
Unfortunately I find it difficult to bet race by race due to time constraints and also because I don't think I've got the temperament so what I list here are the raw mechanical figures based on flat level stakes. I'm not a staking plan man (more through ignorance than research or insight). I think the thing to do with these if you can bet race by race is to set yourself a minimum price and bet only when overs are available. I used to sit and watch my top 3 and bet top 2 at 15/1 or better and 3rd at 25/1 or better. As you know, if you look at the results panel on any Sunday, there aren't too many winners over 15/1 on any given day so there were many days when I'd sit all day for a few bets and no return. In the long run I was doing okay but it wasn't fun. This method is the most reliable mechanical thing I've come up with myself. I went through about 7000 races using my ratings method and found that profitability only started when the field size was 13+. Strike rates were slightly diminished but the profitability was there because of the better prices available in bigger, more open fields. I've spent a few years trying to make money out of the exotics but find them most frustrating and I chopped and changed. A few weeks after giving away boxing my top 4 in fields of 15+ the Doonan Dancer trifecta lobbed paying $27 000 (rated 3-1-4). Missing out on this, I did a giant dummy spit on the exotics (although I still have a go on about 20 Group and Listed races a year).

I notice Jack's Tip has been erased from here. Fair dinkum, Jack will be upset.

What happened to the Joe Keating thread? First Jack (who, incidentally, is inconsolable) and now Joe. I was interested in the field size observations for reasons that have now been deposited in history's dustbin. Does anyone know the Keating view on this matter. My experience and research show that the bigger the field, the better the profitability. That, though is betting mechanically, placing bets before jump of race one etc.

Percentum's Tips for Wednesday 7 December 2005
 

Sorry these are late. Unfortunately work sometimes interferes with life's important pursuits.
Gawler
R7 5 and 6
R8 1, 5 and 11

Brisbane
R6 12 (each way) Rose Hussar

Good Luck everyone.