Jockey Ability
 

I've done a small study of the leading sydney jockeys on the premiership table and come up with some interesting stats.....

Jockeys likely to ride well on favourites

1. J Penza
2. R M Quinn
3. J Ford
4. D Beadman
5. Z Purton
6. H Bowman
7. G Boss

In that order

Jockeys likely to make a mistake

1. J Bowman
2. B Stanley
3. L Henry
4. D Langridge
5. K Fujii
6. J Innes
7. L Cassidy / L Beasley
8. D Beasley

In that order

So let's look at the favourites at Rosehill today....

Doubloon H Bowman unplaced
Admirelle D Beasley unplaced
Windon G Boss 2nd
Malcolm R M Quinn Won $1.50 $1.10
Grandiloquent R M Quinn unplaced
Radetzky March H Bowman Won $3.60 $1.70

So what if we don't bet on the horses where the jockey is likely to botch the ride and only bet on jockeys likely to get it home....

Doubloon H Bowman unplaced
Windon G Boss 2nd
Malcolm R M Quinn Won $1.50 $1.10
Grandiloquent R M Quinn unplaced
Radetzky March H Bowman Won $3.60 $1.70

5 bets 2 wins for return of $5.10

As against the statistically poor jocks

1 bets for return $0.00

But this does not prove anything, so let's look at last weekend

Cheeky Choice L Cassidy 2nd
Kaliningrad H Bowman unplaced
Century Serb H Bowman Won $2.70 $1.40
Appalachian H Bowman unplaced
Le Bron L Beasley Won $2.40 $1.40
Our Apache L Cassidy 2nd

Good Jockey

3 bets 1 win -0.30

Poor Jockey

3 bets 1 win -0.70

Last two Saturday's

Good Jockey 8 bets 3 wins return -0.20 37.50% S/R
Poor Jockey 4 bets 1 win -1.70 25.00% S/R

Of course the challenge is to obtain value, but I know who I'd like riding my favourite and who I'd pass on!

Although the above data is only examples of two meetings, the ratings come from all rides in my database.

Now why does it matter?

Because my Best Bets are showing a very small loss, and I believe that this could be greatly improved by sticking to the best jockeys.

Chrome Prince
 

Hi Chrome Prince have you done anything with your jockeys stats?

Did a bit of reading lastnight on jocks. Looked at Quirindi found a interesting figure on G Ryan 20 rides at the track no winners 7 placings, his overall stats stand at a winner in every 4.9 rides. He has 6 rides today, will be interesting to see how he goes, might try to lay him if the prices are OK.
Cheers

well he didn't win any of his 6 rides but he did win on a pickup ride in the last. (I picked that up after the race) Layed three of his rides so a winning day.
Cheers

Hi crackone,

No I haven't gone back to check, but I think the basis is pretty solid.

My research has gone into more productive areas lately.

The benchmark of a good jockey without actually looking at each of his individual rides, is the strike rate on favourites compared to the strike rate of overall favourites.

It also signals, those that may be throwing rides even though they are very talented and provided with the best livestock, or could it be that they simply don't do well under pressure (owner / trainer)?

Without getting into hot water, there are some very talented jockeys who continue to lose on the favourites more than they should and bob up when they are further out in the betting.

I won't blame the jockey, as the cause could be "elsewhere", all I'll say is that statistically some hot pot jockeys are poor bets!

It's interesting that my list of better performing jockeys often come under the wrath of stewards for bumping or shifting trying to win, while the negative riders often have the run "queried" by stewards (not riding out fully, not giving horse best available run, riding reverse to horse's pace etc etc).

Very interesting indeed!

"I won't blame the jockey, as the cause could be "elsewhere", all I'll say is that statistically some hot pot jockeys are poor bets!

Very interesting indeed![/QUOTE]"

They wouldn't be riding to instuctions from trainers or owners would they?

I remember about ten years ago I backed a horse with a top jock, run of the race, I was lining up to collect, he didn't do a thing on it, ran 4th (you still get a pay cheque running 4th) have not backed that jock again.

Cheers

Yep, that's about it.

Fail at odds on in a Listed Race and come out and win at 20/1 in a Group 1.

Here's some interesting stats on leading jockeys...

Overall 30.92% strike rate

D Beadman 35.43%
J Cassidy 28.67%
G Buckley 38.24%

Why J Cassidy so poor, why always suspended?

Craig williams 23.15%
Craig Newitt 33.02%
Steven King 27.70%

What's going on here with two of them, whom do they ride for?

Just a sample of why it's so important to have the right jockey on your horse.

While the odds on Darren Beadman's mounts are poor, you know he's busting a gut to give it every possible chance.

The best Jockey in Australia, for balance, poise, style, nouse, experience and credibility by a country mile.

G'day Chrome,couldn't agree more with your comments on Darren,but as I said on another thread,they are only human,and are prone to make mistakes as we all do.The good ones learn from their mistakes,the also rans don't.It is common knowledge what a harsh critic of jockeys one J.Hawkes is,and would you agree/disagree that he would have sacked any other jock other than Darren for that infamous ride on Lohnro at his last start?No,he was quite obviously ********ed off,but sanity prevailed and they are a most potent combination,remind me of the T.J.Smith/G.Moore combo.
Darren reminds me a lot of George the way that he can put his mount in a position to win,whether it is the fav or a 10/1 shot,you know you are going to get a run for your money.
As for the dodgy brothers,I won't back anything they ride.Remember when they where flavour of the month years ago?Must be an interesting story behind the scenes there somewhere,the top trainers seem to avoid them like the plague nowadays.Who can forget "The Pumpas"infamous ride on Diatribe,and he got away with it!
Anyway have to totally agree with you onthe importance of having a better than average jockey on board.

Interesting story about George Moore.

Many years ago, I was criticising a jockey ride in a race, and this tubby little elderly bloke comes up next to me and says "we all make mistakes mate."

Introduces himself as George Moore, down here on holidays and begins to recount his career, mistakes he made, and of course his triumphs.

Very friendly guy, and boy did I feel smaller than him!

Frequently run into Michael Clarke in the local hardware store, and yes, he still sports the pudding bowl haircut ;)

Anyone know whatever happened to Brent Thompson?