Selections based on Sandgroper ratings for a dead or better track.
Subject to final scratchings.

Race 1 no. 8 Royal Sonata, danger no. 6 Our Annabel
Race 2 no. 5 Kim Storm, danger no. 12 Heartbeat
Race 3 no. 2 Kame’s Hope, danger no. 7 Heavy Nova
Race 4 no. 2 Ohio, danger no. 10 Our Big Paddy
Race 5 no. 2 Kaprats, danger no. 11 Metallurgy
Race 6 no. 6 Dawn Trooper, danger no. 2 Passa Pago
Race 7 no. 1 Master Park, danger no. 2 Rubiton Wave
Race 8 no. 5 Chaos Regal, danger no. 7 Beautiful Dyna.
Watch on no. 2 Party Boy – ex Victorian. Have no ratings, but not
a hard race to win.


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-07-19 16:46 ]

Like your 2nd pick, race 4 ! :wink:

Track rated good, although watch for the expected weather change. One scratching R2N12, add no. 2 Bleepak.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-07-20 11:02 ]

Ordinary day. Three winners (all short odds) plus another seven placed.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-07-21 08:48 ]

Hello Sandgroper,

Good run by Our Big Paddy on Sat eh!

Looking at some of your previous postings, maybe a name change is in order - The Perth Placegetter ! Any idea how you are travellin to-date ?

G'day Paddy. I've only kept basic stats since I started posting - Sat & Hol meetings only, where track was dead or better.

All up 197 selections for 93 placings. Of the 93 placed, 41 were also winners.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-07-22 13:19 ]

On the surface, looks like the name change is certainly in order. Can you give us an insight into your system by chance?

Hey Sandgroper, before I leave, what is Irish and stays out all night ?




Patty O'Furniture !


Hee, Hee, Hee !

:lol:

:lol:

:lol:

:lol:

Paddy, I’m still chuckling!

Don’t have a system as such.

I have maintained for a number of years, a computer database for Perth metropolitan race results (dead or better track), of horse performances (ratings), for those horses that finish within 5 lengths of the race winner.

I use standard parameters such as the class of race (forms the rating base), weight carried in relation to limit, jockey rating, beaten margin (winner = 0), and some “bad luck in running” adjustment where applicable. The latter is normally gauged from stewards reports and watching race replays. I also note race distance, track location & date of race, as well as style of run eg. fought on (FO), faded slightly (FS), ran on moderately (ROM) etc Maintain most recent (max ten) runs for each horse, plus best run (rating) – could be one of ten most previous but may not be, as well as best distance range (eg 1000 –1200) for each horse.


When it comes to rating for likely results, I take into account each horse’s previous performances (ratings), jockey rating, weight to be carried (compared to race limit), distance of race and sometimes barrier position – both factors dependant of horses general racing style.

I also consider a horse’s current “form pattern” and sometimes their previous form pattern/s. On some occasion also consider likely tempo of race. Race 5 at Belmont last Saturday for example – a number of good class horses who all like to lead, hence would suit those horses who would normally race back in the field.

I rate every horse (assuming in my database) in each race. Based on my final rating also ascertain likely finishing position (in lengths) from the winner.

Can also calculate expected odds to win, based on predicted finishing position.


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-07-22 17:40 ]