|
Ade's Mailbag System
Hello,
My friend and I are trying to develop a software database system in which the computer will output selections for various horse meetings. Development of this system has been a little slow as are doing this on a part-time status as we have other commitments. The system is in its infancy stage but I'll give out the selections on here and we will see how we go and whether it needs to be tweaked. Each Saturday the system will give selections for four races at each meeting in Adelaide (AR), Brisbane (BR), Melbourne (MR), Perth (PR), and Sydney (SR). We'll be betting $5 a win and $5 a place on each race. This will equal to $10 per race, $40 per meeting, $200 per Saturday. We hope to one day achieve a 25% winning strike rate and a 50% place strike rate. We also hope to at least break even with the money placed. Saturday, 4th March 2006 Adelaide (Morphettville): 10:40am - ($5 + $5) AR2: 3. Gold Chime 12:00pm - ($5 + $5) AR4: 1. Bomber Bill 1:20pm - ($5 + $5) AR6: 3. Chickaloo 2:40pm - ($5 + $5) AR8: 1. Kingston Sea Amount Bet: $40.00 Brisbane (Doomben): 10:22am - ($5 + $5) BR1: 2. Prince Of Ashes 11:02am - ($5 + $5) BR2: 1. Pure Energy 1:40pm - ($5 + $5) BR6: 3. Stood Up 3:00pm - ($5 + $5) BR8: 5. Hello Possums Amount Bet: $40.00 Melbourne (Caulfield): 9:15am - ($5 + $5) MR1: 10. Millie Rose 9:50am - ($5 + $5) MR2: 2. Ready 1:10pm - ($5 + $5) MR7: 1. Serenade Rose 2:30pm - ($5 + $5) MR9: 3. Magnus Amount Bet: $40.00 Perth (Ascot): 12:44pm - ($5 + $5) PR1: 2. Graduate Boy 1:25pm - ($5 + $5) PR2: 2. Real Cheeky 3:20pm - ($5 + $5) PR5: 4. Belle Bizarre 3:57pm - ($5 + $5) PR6: 5. Wave Rock Amount Bet: $40.00 Sydney (Rosehill): 9:30am - ($5 + $5) SR1: 4. Spiel 10:50am - ($5 + $5) SR3: 1. Casino Prince 11:30am - ($5 + $5) SR4: 1. Fooram 1:30pm - ($5 + $5) SR7: 1. Racing To Win Amount Bet: $40.00 -------------------------------------------------- Today's Outlay: $200.00 Total Outlay: $200.00 Good Luck & Good Punting! |
Not a great start except in Perth my home town!
Saturday, 4th March 2006
Adelaide (Morphettville): 10:40am - ($5 + $5) AR2: 3. Gold Chime FIRST $2.00 ($10.00) $1.30 ($6.50). 12:00pm - ($5 + $5) AR4: 1. Bomber Bill U.P. 1:20pm - ($5 + $5) AR6: 3. Chickaloo U.P. 2:40pm - ($5 + $5) AR8: 1. Kingston Sea SECOND $2.10 ($10.50). Income Amount: $10.00 ; $17.00 Brisbane (Doomben): 10:22am - ($5 + $5) BR1: 2. Prince Of Ashes U.P. 11:02am - ($5 + $5) BR2: 1. Pure Energy U.P. 1:40pm - ($5 + $5) BR6: 3. Stood Up U.P. 3:00pm - ($5 + $5) BR8: 5. Hello Possums U.P. Income Amount: $0.00 ; $0.00 Melbourne (Caulfield): 9:15am - ($5 + $5) MR1: 10. Millie Rose SECOND $1.40 ($7.00). 9:50am - ($5 + $5) MR2: 2. Ready SECOND $1.60 ($8.00). 1:10pm - ($5 + $5) MR7: 1. Serenade Rose FIRST $1.50 ($7.50) ; $1.04 ($5.20). 2:30pm - ($5 + $5) MR9: 3. Magnus SECOND $1.40 ($7.00). Income Amount: $7.50 ; $22.00 Perth (Ascot): 12:44pm - ($5 + $5) PR1: 2. Graduate Boy FIRST $2.00 ($10.00) ; $1.20 ($6.00). 1:25pm - ($5 + $5) PR2: 2. Real Cheeky THIRD $1.10 ($5.50). 3:20pm - ($5 + $5) PR5: 4. Belle Bizarre FIRST $1.60 ($8.00) ; $1.10 ($5.50). 3:57pm - ($5 + $5) PR6: 5. Wave Rock FIRST $2.40 ($12.00) ; $1.30 ($6.50). Income Amount: $30.00 ; $23.50 Sydney (Rosehill): 9:30am - ($5 + $5) SR1: 4. Spiel U.P. 10:50am - ($5 + $5) SR3: 1. Casino Prince FIRST $2.50 ($12.50) ; $1.40 ($7.00). 11:30am - ($5 + $5) SR4: 1. Fooram U.P. 1:30pm - ($5 + $5) SR7: 1. Racing To Win FIRST $2.30 ($11.50) ; $1.40 ($7.00). Income Amount: $24.00 ; $14.00 Statistics:
Balance Sheet:
|
Bud, no system in the world worth a penny justifies having 4 selections religiously every Saturday at every metro meeting. Obviously, if you know your system returns a profit, you have to bet every selection. Be it 1 selection per week or 6 selections per meeting.
And if you want a 25-35% win strike rate, it's no use backing nags at $1.80 or $2.00, you'll go broke quick.. very quick! For starters, are you backing your selections? If yes, do you know your system returns a long term profit? ie.. at least 250 selections in your database. If no, you are wasting your hard earned. Believe me I have learned the hard way. Another thing, I noticed your system selected many nags that would have been very popular with the average punter today. That is too many, you'll never make a profit that way, and place betting on short priced nags is akin to burning your cash. Most of these selections are undervalued. Good luck, don't give up and persistance pays off in the end :) Your place S/R was 60% too, you have to include the winners. |
The system just selects the four best races at each meeting. Those races should in respect be the ones where the horse selected should win. Of course no system is 100% and some even struggle to maintain a 50% rate.
The system is very early in it's development, so it will be quite out in it's early days. The system dictates the races and selections, I have not input odds into the system as I do not get these odds until race day and odds can quickly change without notice, some might start in the red but time the race starts it could land in the black. The human element which systems can not adjust for would tell me not to back hot favourites and it's up to each individual to decide upon themselves whether to have a bet on my selections or not. I havent bet on my selections as of yet. I will wait until there is some consistency in the system and when the system start to rise in strike rates. I includes meetings from each start so people from all over Australia can follow the systems selections in their state. The stats for bets is purely stats and doesn't reflect my actual betting (see above) and the stats for win/place ratios and there for statistic purposes. Thank you for your feedback, very much appreciated. |
| All times are GMT +10. The time now is 06:24 PM. |
Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.