Form Study
 

Another question regarding form study.

I was looking at the form guide and was wondering.

Rosehill Race 2 #1 Deigo Garcia.

Looking at this horses form Where it ran 7th in the 2yo magic millions over 1200m by 3.6 lengths carrying 55.5. The race time was 1:09.88. The last 600m in 35:03. Now the start before that it won a 2yo Listed Race over 1100m carrying 56.0 in a race time of 1:04.74. The last 600m in 35:64.

The last 600m in both races 35.03-35.64=0.61 secs.


Mad Gambler

What's the question?

Weather I need to study this horse further to see how each start stacks up.

It's a start.

Mad Gambler

Stacks up against what???
I agree with KV.
Good luck.

Mad,

I think sometimes punters tend to dissect too much and not look at the raw facts.

You do not have enough facts from those "paper" figures.

What condition was the track on both occassions?
What was the pace?
From which barrier did the winner come from?
Was he given an easy run or pratted three deep?
Did the horse you're analyzing run on or fade, or just held position?

Most of this we don't readily know.

The MM race was run faster early with a slower 600m, but why exactly?

I think one needs to look at groups of horses rather than individuals when you don't have all the info.

The best guide is the market price on the day, if the horse ran fast and is in the top end of the market, then it's a pretty good bet, if it's wide open, then usually the figures you have regarding times are not as good as they look on paper.

Disclaimer: before people jump down my throat and shout "overs" or "value", I can prove this...if need be ;)

The impact of weight is very overrated, so is track condition, some punters are so obssessed with these falacies, they miss winners and back more losers.

Horse A carries 55kg, but the jockey runs wide and is three wide the whole way.
Horse B carries 59kg, and the jockey hugs the rail

Who wins???

But there will always be exceptions to everything in racing!

If I back a horse to win and the 'public' is also selecting that horse as the winner and there is a sudden track downgrade due to rain to 'dead' and I notice the horse easing on the market quickly and another firming, then turning to my selections form I see 'DEAD 6-0-0-0', The horse duly runs 2nd. last so boy-o-boy are track cond't. important !!

Crash,

Yes in that example, of course, what I meant was punters who avoid ALL horses second up from a spell, ALL horses on tracks worse than Good or Dead, ALL horses carrying large weights etc. etc.

Being obssessed with these myths, they miss good opportunities.

Chrome,

I see your point, but a lot of punters don't punt on every opportunity [seen by someone else] that moves just because it's there, due to wrongly held beliefs [and sure there are those too as you point out]. Some punter avoid maidens [me] and there are some who bet on nothing else and then you have the wet track punters who specialize on wet tracks because they find it easier to select winners or we also have the black tie race players and those that avoid them like the plague. There are probably punters who also search out first or second uppers [or avoid them].

Then you get into betting: Exotics, win or place only, each way, or system specialists? Poison for one punter is sweet nectar for another. I've been trying to convince a punter here I know for years that there is a better way than 50/50 each way betting. I can explain the logic and maths until I'm blue in the face but he See's a different rationality he's happy with. In the end that's all that matters I guess. Comfort zone, even an irrational one.

What it comes down too is punting in an area and in a way you feel comfortable with and making the most of the opportunities present there and ignoring them elsewhere. I feel comfortable [mostly anyway] with certain class races on dry tracks over certain distances and win flat stakes betting. A small wedge from a very large punting pie. Sure opportunities elsewhere will be missed but how many women can you get into you bed at once?

No one can bet on every opportunity seen differently by individual punters in all areas, classes and condt. and ever do any good at the game. Becoming very familiar with a smallish area of punting rather than vaguely familiar with it all, certainly has a lot going for it. Specialization doesn't exclude a punter from profit. In fact it increases the chances of making one and that's a well known bit of advise any experienced punter would tell a newbie as a basic.

Try it all and then follow your nose to a comfortable area and get to know it well. Naturally it will mean ruling out a lot of circumstances that don't suit. It might give other punters the impression you are ruling things out for irrational reasons [especially things they rule in], rather than the simple fact that they just don't suit an individual's punting zone or style.