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Mad Gambler 16th April 2006 04:37 PM

Simple Ratings
 
Does anyone have or know a simple method for rating a race?

mad gambler

Duritz 16th April 2006 05:56 PM

How long is a piece of string?

crash 17th April 2006 06:20 AM

The daily Newspaper has prices for each runner. Mark them off in order of favoritism 1,2,3, etc. You have just achieved a simple rating system. Any other rating system is not necessarily any more accurate or reliable regardless if they are free or you pay for them. They are someones opinion or have followed some mechanical rules to end up at a rating number, also no more reliable than what you have achieved from the Newspaper.

davez 17th April 2006 01:31 PM

the unitab ratings are probably as good as any mad, if you are looking for quick & easy

Duritz 17th April 2006 06:04 PM

There are far, far more reliable methods than the newspaper prices.

One of them is this:

Duritz's Simple Sooper Dooper You Beaut No Worries DIY "Lucky 7" Ratings:

1. Add up the horse's last three placings (if worse than ninth, use 9), and divide by the number of runs you added together. Multiply this figure by -1 then add 10.

2. Add up the horses prizemoney, divide by it's number of runs, and multiply by it's place strike rate, (expressed as a decimal, rounded to two places), and divide the figure by 1000.

3. Assign a days since last start quotient factorial to the number of days they have had since last start, where 1 is for 0-7 days and for every bracket of 7 days 1 over that 1 is added - if > 21 days since last start, use 4. Then multiply this figure by -1 and add 5.

4. If an apprentice jockey, assign a jockey quotient factorial of 1, otherwise assign a jockey quotient factorial of 2.

5. If horse is 1st up from a spell, assign a Runs From Spell (RFS) quotient factorial of 1, if 2nd up, 2, if 3rd, 4th or 5th up, 4, else 3.

6. If said member of equinity has barrier 11 or wider, assign a barrier quotient factorial of 1, else 2.

Write down these 6 Lucky figures in six separate columns in your Lucky 7 tabulator book, then multiply these 6 figures together and write the resulting figure in the Lucky 7 column.

Whoever is highest, is the top pick. Head for the bookies ring with ears back and caution sitting idly at home, and back it until your guts swell up.

And there you have it! A simple, Sooper Dooper You Beaut No Worries DIY "Lucky 7" Ratings method.

crash 17th April 2006 07:13 PM

Want to put that lot of tedious hard work up [or any ratings you choose] against the simple Newspaper system I mentioned here Duritz?

I have a $20 here that says you will lose over the next 2 Saturdays, main Metro E/states :-)

lomaca 17th April 2006 08:38 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duritz
There are far, far more reliable methods than the newspaper prices.

One of them is this:

Duritz's Simple Sooper Dooper You Beaut No Worries DIY "Lucky 7" Ratings:

1. Add up the horse's last three placings (if worse than ninth, use 9), and divide by the number of runs you added together. Multiply this figure by -1 then add 10.

2. Add up the horses prizemoney, divide by it's number of runs, and multiply by it's place strike rate, (expressed as a decimal, rounded to two places), and divide the figure by 1000.

3. Assign a days since last start quotient factorial to the number of days they have had since last start, where 1 is for 0-7 days and for every bracket of 7 days 1 over that 1 is added - if > 21 days since last start, use 4. Then multiply this figure by -1 and add 5.

4. If an apprentice jockey, assign a jockey quotient factorial of 1, otherwise assign a jockey quotient factorial of 2.

5. If horse is 1st up from a spell, assign a Runs From Spell (RFS) quotient factorial of 1, if 2nd up, 2, if 3rd, 4th or 5th up, 4, else 3.

6. If said member of equinity has barrier 11 or wider, assign a barrier quotient factorial of 1, else 2.

Write down these 6 Lucky figures in six separate columns in your Lucky 7 tabulator book, then multiply these 6 figures together and write the resulting figure in the Lucky 7 column.

Whoever is highest, is the top pick. Head for the bookies ring with ears back and caution sitting idly at home, and back it until your guts swell up.

And there you have it! A simple, Sooper Dooper You Beaut No Worries DIY "Lucky 7" Ratings method.


Hi Duritz!
Thank's for your extremely valuable input.
While for some! it may appear complex, I think this is actually the very essence of ratings, reduced to it's most comprehensive and at the same time to it's most simple form.
I whipped up a small programme and ran it through 3 years of past data.
I have to admit, I have taken a small liberty of multiplying the above mentioned quotiens by "-1" before doing the factorial permutations, in order to obtain a more realictic outcome.
Since it was your idea I do not feel empowered to publicly post the results, however, let me just say this, Duritz you have done it !!!!
Email sent!
Many thank's and please let them coming!

crash 17th April 2006 08:47 PM

....and what was the 'realictic' outcome?

Duritz 17th April 2006 09:09 PM

lol I dont' know what my email address is listed as here!

Mad what email did you send it to? Just give me the bit after the @ and I'll know.

Duritz 17th April 2006 09:19 PM

Hey Crash - if someone can program that one for me I'll test it against the newspapers, and take the $20 bet naturally!


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