Brisbane races Saturday
 

R1.
All the hype around this Weirdo is pretty hard to ignore..Will start odds on..Sectionals are to hard to ingore aswell...to easy this first race but no value at all..Colless will nurse Heartbreak Pass again in the lead and with natural improvement the horse will run well...Albaquerque who trialled well the next best...a no brainer to start the day but if you dont mind the shorties Weirdo by all report should be winning this easily.

R2.
This race looks a better proposition..,,looks a heap of speed upfront...went looking for the horse with the strong finish who'll get the nice run with some value..Bitabiff looks the one,,raced very well behind Navy Seal last start and was up close to Star Of Canada and Bucks Secret.....the later winning today at Rocky and the Star even though neeeding the run would be odds on in this field....Bitabiff is alittle underated and Wallace can a train a sprinter...Monte Cavallo the main danger with the good barrier and is a proven weight carrier...Sectagonal with the awkard barrier still very competive in this.....Cocolare the next best....might be a good trifecta race aswell..
like Bitabiff especially at the 11's in the paper..

R3.
With Mameluke out the race looks a gimme for Cognisant..the horse in great form the weights no problem and has a good barrier...races forward so i cant see him getting into trouble either..last start pushed the impressive Mr Sportsman to the line.....looks a good thing...Mr Hornblower is an improving type...will again race very well and will probably lead this field...these look the 2 for an exacta...very very confident with Cognisant.

R4.
What a race ...blink and you'll miss it...Naval Seal again will race well here..Becks drawn on his inner will be there..Star of Canada with Colless aboard will improve out of sight and Maxy Legs with her strong finish gets a tempo to suit and could surprise ....I cant see any value in this race YET...but if Star Of Canada gets to decent odds with all this support for Becks and co i'd be inclined to lean his way..the horse will have improved from the first run and Colless gives the horse a couple of lengths aswell....
Naval Seal and becks will be no value.....In my speed map i have Becks and Naval Seal leading together ...Maxy legs behind them and Star Of Canada coming across and taking the sit one out one back,,perfect in this race...
I'll be on the Star if i can get a price....but these look the 4 and if you work out the order the value might be in having the tri and 1st4 a few times..

R5.
Not an easy race this. ....Cool Scene the obvious class,,,but coming back from the 2000m ?? but there will be a nice tempo in this race that will suit...Masi Pride was made very good ground last start..i havent a jockey for him yet.....Nexgen is racing in great form and has good gate speed that will help in this big field.....and even though Ice Chariot has drawn the shocker he has a good swooping sprint and will only need luck...
If Cool Scene stays in double figures he looks an excellent e/w....the horse has a touch of class about him and the wide open spaces here suit him......Nexgen the next best and in such a open race should be able to back both....i'm not holding my breath for double figures about Cool Scene but you never know in these types of races..and the whole 600m drop back in distance might scare a few off him..

R6.
If All Bar One runs a 108.5 will they catch him ?? i cant see them doing it...even the Great St BAsil who looked fantastic the other day might not be able to catch him here over the 1200m...theres no other horse in this that will pressure all bar one and he loves it this way...he can relax and just churn out enormous sectionals that make it to hard for the swoopers..
Impaler might try and give it a go but it would be suicide for him...
All Bar One,,,St Basil flying home for 2nd...(take the 17's now for the straddie),,,and Picaday (same story) with Falaise there abouts,,,
There will be alot of support for Falaise and St Basil so i should be able to get a better price than the 3.50 ....and would want better than that aswell..

R7.
This is High Academy's race ...the horse just needs some room and his sprint gets him all over the top of these..Bohemian Dancer will be tuff as he always is,,but i'm guessing Stewart will be out to make amends for his shocker last start....these look the standout 2 (but i did say this last start) ..Adavale Hornet who should lead this field and set a nice tempo will be sticking on for 3rd....very confident about High Academy...load up..

R8.
Wolfman after his last run looks hard to beat but i went looking for value...Ceffyl the old fella could get up in this race...forget his last run on (that track) at toowoomba and go on the earlier run....he doesnt know hes a senior citizen and they looked to have fixed his hoof probs....this isnt a hard race and i should get e/ws about him...he likes the track and is always overlooked...should get a good price..

Best bets. Cognisant, High Academy, Weirdo
Best E/w's . Bitabiff, Cool Scene.

Feeling very confident tomorrow...alot will depend on prices but i'm hopefull :)

Good Luck all

other state selections
Hawksbury
Fluffy Courage, Spirit Of Tara, Mac's Tune
Melbourne
Pure Silence, Valkyrie Diva, Lukes Turn
Adelaide
Tivation, Stormy Youth
Gold Coast
Funover, Socialist.

Good Luck all :)

Hey Mav,

Start of the Brissie carnival tomorrow, can't wait :). Great weather up here, track might be on the hard side - no rain lately. The racing should be top quality though.

Race 1 - Agree that Weirdo looks the one. Got beaten by a pretty good one last time, and there are no Ghetto Blasters here i don't think. With adequate speed (which there will be), i think he just wins. As Mav said though, you won't get a price. Heartbreak Pass has good form behind him, with Ascendant and Attemptation both coming out and winning in town. Good chance. Prey For Peace has a nice turn of foot on her day, place chance.

Race 2 - I can't get to this race at all. I've settled on Monte Cavallo, but i can never seem to pick him on the right day. Bitabiff has the form behind Naval Seal, which is a top pointer for this...good chance. Secatgonal is fit and can run well tomorrow if given the right run.

Race 3 - Agree with Mav here, Cognisant looks a good bet. Mr Sportsman looks pretty good, so Cognisant's performance to give him weight and not get beaten far was impressive. These aren't world beaters, so i think from the 2 alley, he can go very close. Fair Ace always seems to be thereabouts but i can't bring myself to tip him. Will be right in the firing line for most of the race though. Mr Hornblower will improve off the first 2 runs back and is a good chance if the speed is on up front.

Race 4 - I like one at odds that Mav mentioned briefly in his report. Maxy Legs. There is a huge amount of speed here and i think she'll sit just off them and sprint hard at the end. Browne's only ride in town too, from what i can see. Sir Success has had a long time off but at 1000m while fresh...isn't hopeless. Naval Seal will sit right on the speed and could do what he did to them last time without surprising. I've just gone fishing for a price :)

Race 5 - Well, you'll get a price here, whatever you fancy :). I like Ice Chariot, even from the alley. The horse has a devastating sprint in the last 200m so i think if Lynch jags him back at the start and gets near the fence, he can go close at the end. He will be helped by the big field, should be plenty of speed. Caos Cross was a good effort last time too, and i would say is only going to improve more. Good chance. Dawn's Pride has the bad alley too, but has been in great form and, again, will benefit from the good speed. Morris is riding well, too.

Race 6 - Sir Byrne Hart time. I like All Bar One. The strong 1200m is a concern, especially with St Basil engaged, but i'd be willing to say he'll have enough of a lead to fall in. Having said that, St Basil is a top horse who will be flying home. He won't be fully wound up here though, with the Straddy the main aim. Picaday was a super return and if he repeats that effort, will figure in this race.

Race 7 - I'd say High Academy is the one here. He has drawn an alley that will enable him to sit 2 out and get some sprinting room in the straight. I think he'll get over them at the death. Bohemian Dancer will be getting home again, but i think High Academy has a stronger sprint at this stage. Adavale Hornet will be on pace again, and might be able to stick on for a place.

Race 8 - Naa, don't like this at all. Maybe House Of Woodwind, Viscay Star and Baghdad. To be honest, that is too hard for me :).

And a couple i thought were a chance at the coast were:-

Race 2 - #5 Rhythm Finale
Race 5 - #6 Gallant Archer
Race 8 - #9 Honour Happy List

Good luck everyone

Sven

Hi Mav and Sven

Always enjoy reading yuor summaries - best posts on the forum.

I'm wondering what you make of Race 1 No.9 Thundering Girl - any chance?

Cheers,

Filante

Great thread as always. Really enjoy your descriptions, they are very detailed and very useful.

If you could put down the Race Number and Horse Number for each selection, that would be great help.

Thanks and best luck.

great thread guys and much appreciated by us mug punters.
Cheers
barney

Race 1: Not a fan here won't take the shorts nor will I be backing anything to beat it.

Race 2: Not a huge fan of anything in this race but I didn't mind Coccolare he may want the 1200m now atleast that is what I am gambling on after that I didn't mind Monte Cavallo either way there should be decent sort of value to be had about this race.

Race 3: Not sure if this is the perfect race for him but Scott Seamer on Grand Lover looks to be a boost and he can really hit the line hard at times in what I feel personally isnot a very strong field at all.

Race 4: I am a bit of a fan of Becks and I think he is good enough to take care of these however I wouldn't be keen to go to short on him as there looks like there could be a bit of a speed battle upfront which isn't going to suit either of the 2 favs, With the amount of speed on Picture Book might be a decent e/w bet just as a saver.

Race 5: This is one hell of a hard race I am leaning to Caos Cross drawn to not do any work and there looks to be certainly enough pace in the race to give everything a chance in it, Dawn's Pride picks itself but it's going to get a mile back from that gate however you know it will hit the line like a freight train, Another I didn't mind a little at big odds is Modhesh not sure if it is quite upto this class or not but there will be speed on and it's last run would suggest that is only going to help this horse,

Race 6: Call me stupid but I cannot go past the old bloke here St.Basil there is alot of pace in this race with All Bar One and also Impaler probably going forward, All Bar One is probably the one to beat but it's last 100 metres is a major worry at times wouldn't be surprised if that is the case again here today and if anyonme in the race will find a chink in it's armour late it will be the old grey rattling down the outside.I have alot of time for both Picaday and Cajun Steel but not sure if they are suited that well at WFA would think that Picaday could easily run a place though.

Race 7: Terrible race IMO but if I had a knife to my throat and had to pick something it would be Bohemian Dancer.

Race 8: I like House of Woodwind here the outside gate is no bonus but it is going to be last anyway the way I see it this will only add a bit of value to the horse hopefully Spry will just get the horse into open running in the 1 little worry I have is the 1400m but I think he can get it.

Bets I like today are

Bris r2 no 13 Coccolare

R4 no 5 Star of Canada

bris r6 no 4 All Bar One -- Picaday as a value bet e/w

Could be a nice all up if they come in

another couple in race 5 is
no 6 Masai Pride and no 7 Two fingers

More likely too short but Evilweb should win easily today in Melb.

In the oaks
No 11 Fanciful Bella e/w

good luck

Nice tip Bitabiff guys! Paid $8.20 WA.

Like Regulus in the 6th at the gold coast no 11